[sustran] Re: Guangzhou joins the list of cities in China with a quota for new vehicles

[Michael Replogle]

Vehicle quota systems, especially linked to auctions as in Singapore or Shanghai that help finance better public transport, are a quite sensible way to manage the pressures of motorization that naturally accompany rising incomes in urban areas. Such quotas have worked far more effectively than license plate restriction systems, which spur purchases of 2nd cars. Vehicle quotas alone are not sufficient, but accompanied by parking management, attention to improvements for public transport, walking, and cycling, sound urban planning, effective traffic operations and road investment, they make very sound policy. 

We need to begin treating urban traffic systems like ecological systems. When any species in an ecosystem grows too rapidly without check, it tends to unbalance the system and crowd out other species which may be better adapted to efficient exploitation of the resource base but which may lack defenses against the intruding more powerful species. Take for example what happens when excess nutrients are added to a coastal estuary, e.g., nitrogen runoff from factory farms and atmospheric nitrate deposition from motor vehicle and power plant  emissions. This feeds the growth of algae, which blooms in such profusion that it blocks the sunlight from reaching the sea grasses at the bottom. With the death of the grasses, there is a loss of habitat for many other species and oxygen levels fall, creating a toxic zone that kills off all but the simplest forms of life, such as the algae, which thrive as they face no competition for resources. The overall biological productivity of the ecosystem declines sharply, along with species diversity. Visibility in the water falls to inches as the filter feeders that strain out suspended particles are killed off. 

So too it is when cheap oil, subsidies, policies favoring rapid motorization, and rising incomes lead to a sudden ride of motor vehicles, which crowd out walking and cycling and cause public transport system productivity to fall sharply as buses get stuck in traffic. This decreases the viability of alternatives to driving and leads to a self-reinforcing loop. Air pollution gets worse, decreasing visibility. People feel their choices constrained and the overall structure of the urban ecosystem changes to favor further the simple monoculture of motor vehicle use. 

One can intervene to restore balance to such an ecosystem process in various ways. Reduce the nitrogen and nutrient inputs; create artificial reefs for the oysters and filter feeders; limit overfishing to enable restoration of population growth among the threatened species in the case of the estuary. Replace subsidies for motor fuels, roads, and sprawl with higher user fees or taxes that reflect the polluter pays and user pays full-cost-pricing principles; manage and price parking and street space to reduce the niches in which motor vehicles are highly attractive; set quotas on motor vehicle fleet size growth to check vehicle population growth; and expand right-of-way allocated and managed to favor walking, cycling, and public transport.

Michael Replogle
Managing Director for Policy & Founder
Institute for Transportation & Development Policy
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Washington, DC 20036 USA

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Promoting sustainable and equitable transportation worldwide

On Jul 3, 2012, at 3:17 AM, Sujit Patwardhan wrote:

Agree with you Carlos.

We have a similar situation in India as you know. People will make any
excuses to postpone TDM - reasons of aspiration, rising incomes, rising
population (yes even that), expression of status, and now the economic
justification (a variation on "what's good for General Motors is good for
America") as India becomes the hub for manufacture of automobiles and and
auto ancillaries.
We need TDM NOW !!!! and each year we delay putting this in place we are
going to lose valuable urban assets, human lives and recognizable features
of our great cities.
--
Sujit




On Tue, Jul 3, 2012 at 12:31 PM, Carlosfelipe Pardo
<carlosfpardo at gmail.com>wrote:

> With China's motorization rate, it's probably dumber not to do anything
> and keep thinking of any better solutions...  I think there are things
> that can definitely be improved, but if we wait and see how to do it (or
> wait for a policymaker in China to pay attention), we'll have those
> billions of cars sooner than we expected! The quotas are a first step
> towards a new agenda, or at least I see it that way.
> 
> On 03/07/2012 01:47 a.m., eric britton wrote:
>> Oh dear, is that supposed to be good news?
>> 
>> Economists of course do not love quotas. And while they are certainly
> not right all the time, there is often good sense in what they have to
> propose in the many similar circumstances.
>> 
>> But let me ask you all this? Can you possibly tell me a worse way, a
> more primitive way, a dumber way to get this particular job done? I would
> very much like to see your list.
>> 
>> And once we have that out of the way, what about making up a list of the
> many good ways that are available and proven that will get this
> demand/supply disequilibrium into better balance for the environment,
> society, the economy and life quality of all concerned.
>> 
>> Now THAT is an interesting question.
>> 
>> Eric Britton
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> PS.  Please note new addresses and phone numbers as of 24 April 2012
>> 
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-- 
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*It's no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.
*

- J. Krishnamurti

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Sujit Patwardhan
patwardhan.sujit at gmail.com
sujit at parisar.org <sujitjp at gmail.com>
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