[sustran] Guangzhou joins the list of cities in China with a quota for new vehicles

[eric britton]

To: eric britton  Cc: 'Global 'South' Sustainable Transport' On Behalf Of
Carlosfelipe Pardo  Sent: Tuesday, 03 July, 2012 09:01

 

With China's motorization rate, it's probably dumber not to do anything and
keep thinking of any better solutions...  I think there are things that can
definitely be improved, but if we wait and see how to do it (or wait for a
policymaker in China to pay attention), we'll have those billions of cars
sooner than we expected! The quotas are a first step towards a new agenda,
or at least I see it that way.

___________________________________________________________________

 

>From Wikipedia this morning, just to set the stage: 

"Dialectic is a method of argument for resolving disagreement that has been
central to Indian and European philosophy since antiquity. The dialectical
method is dialogue between two or more people holding different points of
view about a subject, who wish to establish the truth of the matter by
dialogue, with reasoned arguments."

 

Dear Carlos and All,

 

I am delighted to see that I may have hit a nerve, not least because I
really think that this sort of no-holds barred open discussion is vital not
only for sustainability and democracy but also for good governance and
quality of life. And Sustran and any other groups who might chose to carry
this discussion are the just  kinds of independent peer platforms for those
who care to let the full range of voices and views be heard.  We owe nothing
to anyone or any government except to share with all our best understanding
of the truth at the core of our difficult self-assigned challenge..  So
let's see what we can get with a good dose of creative disagreement this
morning on the topic of quotas.

 

To start by agreeing with you Carlos:  Yes of course what you say here makes
a certain kind of sense -- but let's turn it around a bit to see if there
may be a bit more to it that we might usefully take into consideration.  And
since we are basically looking at behavioral and not transport issues per se
here, in this I appeal to your training as a psychologist to share with us
your views. 

 

Here are the three central point's I hear you saying this morning, by the
numbers:

 

a.                  It's probably dumber not to do anything and keep
thinking of any better solutions

 

b.                  But if we wait and see how to do it, we'll have those
billions of cars sooner than we expected! 

 

c.                   The quotas are a first step towards a new agenda.

 

Let's take a step back and see if I can parse them point by point: 

 

.         Your a.  On the surface that would seem to make a certain kind
good sense. But the reality is considerably more complex. 

The problem with this line of reasoning though is that a bad policy like
this can be maintained by an authoritarian government (and there are a lot
of them out there) for quite a long time, without feeding into any process
that is capable of taking into account the real world feedback and the  full
complexity of the issues and the available solutions.  It is not the
beginning of something, it is a dead end.

Here is what my ears hear the government implicitly saying in this
situation. "Yes dear citizens, we understand that we have a problem with all
those cars in our cities. And yes, happily for you all,  we have a solution.
And the solution is this . . . "   And implicitly beyond that: "And now
since we have therefore solved the problem, all you need to do is to behave
in terms of the new legal and behavioral model, and all will be in order."
(Which in song goes: "So hush little baby don't you cry".)



Now this is not to contest the value of "authoritarian expert solutions"
(though I do personally contest them). But the key problem here is not that
a quota system is a poor way of "improving" the
cars/mobility/economy/quality of life nexus.  (Although it most definitely
is, but we can get to that another day if necessary.)  



The "wonderful surprise " is that this quota idea could very well in this
complex real world in which we live ACTUALLY MAKE THINGS WORSE!!!  (On this
point I invite all who care to work through how and why this is likely to be
the case.)

And as to "keep thinking of any better solutions", the fact is that there
are many known policies and well-tested measures which could be brought on
line in a matter of a few weeks or few months max -- it is only that the
process need to be seriously engaged.  

But for now their "solution" appears to occupy all the intellectual and
media terrain, so in fact it is blocking the process of the more complete
policy debate that is called for especially in situation of this level of
great complexity.

 

.         Your 2. Who said we should wait?  We KNOW how to do it, and all
that is needed is to get the ball rolling in the right direction. If the
will were there the solution process could start to be engaged tomorrow
morning. 



.         Your 3:  Somebody pinch me.  I don't know whether to laugh or cry
at that one.  What is proposed here is quite exactly just one more step in
an old and tired agenda. 

 

# # #

 

To conclude (for now): This is not China bashing (I am not that dumb).  But
cari amici it's 2012 and there is a big and troubled world out there badly
in need of real ideas and good examples.  And if there is one thing about
the Chinese elephant that appeals greatly to me, it is that China is today
the one elephant on this gasping planet that can turn on a dime. And since
they are unique, it would be a wonderful thing if all of us who care could
find a way to work with our Chinese colleagues in a true peer fashion to get
the government and the cities  turning on the right dime.

 

We could do that, you know.

 

Regards/Eric Britton

 

 

------------------------------------------------

 

On Behalf Of Carlosfelipe Pardo  Sent: Tuesday, 03 July, 2012 09:01

To: eric britton  Cc: 'Global 'South' Sustainable Transport'

 

With China's motorization rate, it's probably dumber not to do anything and
keep thinking of any better solutions...  I think there are things that can
definitely be improved, but if we wait and see how to do it (or wait for a
policymaker in China to pay attention), we'll have those billions of cars
sooner than we expected! The quotas are a first step towards a new agenda,
or at least I see it that way.