[sustran] Re: Hybrid cars- article from IHT

[Daryl Oster]

Lee,

Good points about refining bias.  The engine life of typical automotive
diesels is not nearly as good as agricultural, truck and marine diesel
engines.  The VW Diesel is designed to operate at high speed to achieve high
power and low weight, so the parts see much higher stress and wear.  My
research indicates that engine life and reliability and service costs are
better for the Toyota gasoline engine than the VW Diesel engine.  At today's
fuel prices, it would take more than a million miles to recover the cost
differential - by then the engine (and car) would be worn out.  

Diesel used to have superior transportation value in the US, (and still do
for trucks and busses).  Presently spark ignited gasoline powered cars are
of slightly superior transportation value in the US, yet I suspect that
Diesel hybrids will eventually displace spark ignited engines as bio-fuels
start to displace fossil fuels, and storage batteries become lower cost and
lighter weight.   

Daryl Oster
(c) 2006  all rights reserved.  ETT, et3, MoPod, "space travel on earth"
e-tube, e-tubes,  and the logos thereof are trademarks and or service marks
of et3.com Inc.  For licensing information contact: POB 1423, Crystal River
FL 34423-1423  (352)257-1310, et3 at et3.com , www.et3.com


> -----Original Message-----
> From: sustran-discuss-bounces+et3=et3.com at list.jca.apc.org
> [mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+et3=et3.com at list.jca.apc.org] On Behalf Of
> Lee Schipper
> Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2006 4:21 PM
> To: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
> Subject: [sustran] Re: Hybrid cars- article from IHT
> 
> Another point -- US refineries are stretched to produce a high yield of
> gasoline. Swining a huge amount of that to diesel would also be costly,
> and with Daryl's numbers for diesel costs, even cutting them down
> somewhat, a hybrid comes out somewhat better overall --unless a car
> owner is truly a high mileage driver benefittign from a very long engine
> lifetime of diesels compared to (uncertain) for the new generation of
> electronic hybrids.
> 
> >>> "Daryl Oster" <et3 at et3.com> 4/20/2006 4:07:36 PM >>>
> The Toyota Corolla is the best selling brand in the world - with good
> reason.  I own a 2003 model, and it is rated at 36/41 MPG by the EPA
> (US
> gallons).  In 86,000 miles, the average fuel efficiency is 38MPG (US
> measure).
> 
> I have owned several Diesels in the past by VW, GM, and BMW.  Diesel in
> the
> US is about 20% greater cost than gasoline, AND the lowest cost Diesel
> car
> available in the US in 2003 would have cost me $8,000 more than I paid
> for
> my Corolla.  $8,000 is enough for 100,000 miles worth of driving at
> 38mpg
> and a fuel cost of $3/gal.
> 
> In 2003, when I purchased my Corolla I compared to the Prius, and the
> additional $6,000 cost could not be justified on the projected fuel
> savings,
> especially considering the projected battery life of 80,000 miles.
> 
> Daryl Oster
> (c) 2006  all rights reserved.  ETT, et3, MoPod, "space travel on
> earth"
> e-tube, e-tubes,  and the logos thereof are trademarks and or service
> marks
> of et3.com Inc.  For licensing information contact: POB 1423, Crystal
> River
> FL 34423-1423  (352)257-1310, et3 at et3.com , www.et3.com
> 
> 
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: sustran-discuss-bounces+et3=et3.com at list.jca.apc.org
> > [mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+et3=et3.com at list.jca.apc.org] On
> Behalf Of
> > Lee Schipper
> > Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2006 10:14 AM
> > To: etts at indigo.ie; sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
> > Subject: [sustran] Re: Hybrid cars- article from IHT
> >
> > The hybrid piece first appeared in the NY TImes last Sunday. MAde
> many
> > good points.
> >
> > Be careful, though. 50 MPG US in diesel, given that diesel has 12%
> more
> > energy that gasoline, is really 45 MPG gasoline.
> >
> > But no quesiton the Audi diesel is a great car. Whether it is a fuel
> > saver depends on whether diesel is underpriced as it has been in so
> many
> > countries, or priced close to gasoline, as is the case in the US or
> the
> > UK. Our study published in the Journal of Tranpsort Economics and
> Policy
> > in 2002 suggested that in the low diesel price countries, the diesel
> > fleet itself has no energy or CO2 savings relative to the gasoline
> fleet
> > because on a match pairs basis, diesels are somewhat heavier and
> more
> > powerful, driven so much more, selected in large part as "driving
> > extenders" rather than "fuel savers". Fold in the higher energy and
> CO2
> > content of diesel relative to gasoline, and there was little or no
> net
> > savings left in the late 1990s. Would be fund to update to 2003 but
> that
> > would take considerable work.
> >
> > The article appeard in JTEP in May 2002. Happy to send pdf copies
> > (about 1 meg)
> >
> > >>> etts at indigo.ie 4/19/2006 10:05:10 AM >>>
> > Dear Carlos,
> >
> > It sounds like 40 mpg is considered some sort of breakthrough in the
> > USA - have I misunderstood? My wife's regular diesel Audi A4
> > consistently averages 50 mpg across city and open road, better than
> cars
> > used to be, but we don't think it's anything special.
> >
> > I think this just reinforces your point about clever (or sneaky)
> > "green" branding by the auto industry.
> >
> > With best wishes,
> >
> >
> > Brendan.
> >
> __________________________________________________________________________
> > ___________
> > >From Brendan Finn, ETTS Ltd.   e-mail : etts at indigo.ie   tel :
> > +353.87.2530286
> >   ----- Original Message -----
> >   From: Carlos F. Pardo SUTP
> >   To: carfree_cities at yahoogroups.com ;
> > WorldTransport-unsubscribe at yahoogroups.com ;
> > NewMobilityCafe at yahoogroups.com ; sutp-asia at yahoogroups.com ; 'Asia
> > and the Pacific sustainable transport'
> >   Sent: Monday, April 17, 2006 12:01 PM
> >   Subject: [sustran] Hybrid cars- article from IHT
> >
> >
> >   A nice, centered article about the reality of hybrid cars and
> their
> > "fuel efficiency"
> >
> >
> >
> >   Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/04/16/opinion/edkitman.php
> 
> >
> >
> >
> >   Life in the green lane
> >   Jamie Lincoln Kitman The New York Times
> >
> >   MONDAY, APRIL 17, 2006
> >
> >
> >
> >   If you've gone to any auto show in the last year or so, you'll
> know
> > that hybrid cars are the hippest automotive fashion statement to
> come
> > along in years. They've become synonymous with the worthy goal of
> > reducing gasoline consumption and dependence on foreign oil and all
> that
> > this means for a better environment and more stable geopolitics.
> >
> >
> >
> >   And yet like fat-free desserts, which sound healthy but can still
> > make you fat, the hybrid car can make people feel as if they're
> doing
> > something good, even when they're doing nothing special at all. As
> > consumers and governments at every level climb onto the hybrid
> > bandwagon, there is the very real danger of elevating the technology
> at
> > the expense of the intended outcome - saving gas.
> >
> >
> >
> >   Few things these days say "environmentally aware consumer" so
> loudly
> > as the fuel-sipping Toyota Prius. With its two power sources - one a
> > gasoline- powered internal combustion engine, the other a
> battery-driven
> > electric motor - the best-selling Prius (and other hybrids sold by
> Honda
> > and Ford and due soon from several other car makers) can go further
> on a
> > gallon and emit fewer pollutants in around-town use than most
> > conventional automobiles because under certain circumstances they run
> on
> > battery power and consume less fuel.
> >
> >
> >
> >   But just because a car has so-called hybrid technology doesn't
> mean
> > it's doing more to help the environment or to reduce the country's
> > dependence on imported oil any more than a non-hybrid car. There are
> > good hybrids and bad ones. Fuel-efficient conventional cars are
> often
> > better than hybrid sport-utility vehicles - just look at how many
> miles
> > per gallon the vehicle gets.
> >
> >
> >
> >   Being a professional car-tester, which is to say a person who gets
> > asked for unpaid car-buying advice practically every day, I know
> these
> > distinctions have already been lost on many car buyers. And I fear
> > they're well on their way to being lost on our governments, too.
> >
> >
> >
> >   Lately, people have been calling me and telling me they're
> thinking
> > about buying the Lexus 400H, a new hybrid SUV. When I tell them that
> > they'd get better mileage in some conventional SUVs, and even better
> > mileage with a passenger car, they protest, "But it's a hybrid!" I
> > remind them that the 21 miles per gallon I saw while driving the
> Lexus
> > 400H is not particularly brilliant, efficiency-wise - hybrid or not.
> > Because the Lexus is a relatively heavy car and because its electric
> > motor is deployed to provide speed more than efficiency, it will
> never
> > be a mileage champ.
> >
> >
> >
> >   The car that started the hybrid craze, the Toyota Prius, is lauded
> > for squeezing 40 or more miles out of a gallon of gas, and it really
> > can. But only when it's being driven around town. On a cross-
> country
> > excursion in a Prius, the staff of Automobile Magazine discovered
> > mileage plummeted on the Interstate. In fact, the car's computer,
> which
> > controls the engine and the motor, allowing them to run together or
> > separately, was programmed to direct the Prius to spend most of its
> > highway time running on gasoline because at higher speeds the
> batteries
> > quickly get exhausted.
> >
> >
> >
> >   Indeed, the gasoline engine worked so hard that we calculated we
> > might have used less fuel on our journey if we had been driving
> Toyota's
> > conventionally powered, similarly sized Corolla - which costs
> thousands
> > less.
> >
> >
> >
> >   For years, most of the world's big car makers have shied away from
> > building hybrids because while they are technologically intriguing,
> they
> > are also an inelegant engineering solution - the use of two energy
> > sources assures extra weight, extra complexity and extra expense (as
> > much as $6,000 more per car.) The hybrid car's electric battery
> packs
> > rob space from passengers and cargo and although they can be
> recycled,
> > not every owner can be counted on to do the right thing at the end
> of
> > their vehicle's service life. And an unrecycled hybrid battery pack,
> > which weighs more than 100 pounds, poses a major environmental
> hazard.
> >
> >
> >
> >   So the ideal hybrid car is one that is used in town and carefully
> > disposed of at the end of its days. Hybrid taxis and buses make
> enormous
> > sense. But the market knows no such distinctions. People think they
> want
> > hybrids and they'll buy them, even if a conventional car would make
> more
> > sense. The danger is that the automakers will co- opt the hybrids'
> green
> > mantle and, with the help of a government looking to bail out its
> > troubled friends in Detroit, misguidedly encourage the sale of
> hybrids
> > without reference to their actual effect on oil consumption.
> >
> >
> >
> >   Pro-hybrid laws and incentives sound nice, but they might just end
> up
> > subsidizing companies that have failed to develop truly
> fuel-efficient
> > vehicles at the expense of those that have had the foresight to
> design
> > their cars right in the first place. And they may actually punish
> > citizens who save fuel the old- fashioned way - by using less of it,
> > with smaller, lighter and more efficient cars. All the while,
> they'll
> > make a mockery of a potentially useful technology.
> >
> >
> >
> >   (Jamie Lincoln Kitman is the New York bureau chief for Automobile
> > Magazine and a columnist for Top Gear, a British magazine.)
> >
> >
> >
> >
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
> > ----
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >   ================================================================
> >   SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of
> people-centred,
> > equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing
> countries
> > (the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main
> focus
> > is on urban transport policy in Asia.
> >
> >
> > ================================================================
> > SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
> > equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing
> countries
> > (the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main
> focus
> > is on urban transport policy in Asia.
> 
> 
> 
> ================================================================
> SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
> equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries
> (the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main focus
> is on urban transport policy in Asia.
> 
> 
> ================================================================
> SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
> equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries
> (the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main focus
> is on urban transport policy in Asia.