[sustran] Re: Litman on "The Future ain't What It Used To Be"

[Todd Alexander Litman]

Dear Eric,

Thank you very much! I really appreciate the feedback.

Although I agree with everything you say, I an not incorporating all of 
your specific comments because I want this paper to have a focused and 
academic tone, and so I'm avoiding most subjective comments.

I have, however, added some new sections, including a discussion of the 
differences between growth and development, and a discussion of 
counter-arguments and some of the errors made by proponents of automobile 
travel growth. The revised version is now on the website 
at  http://www.vtpi.org/future.pdf.

I also added discussion in the conclusions section about the implications 
for developing countries.

Please let me know if you have more comments or suggestions.


Best wishes,
-Todd Litman


At 07:49 PM 12/28/2004 +0100, EcoPlan, Paris wrote:

>Dear Todd,
>
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>Your paper is so very good that whatever I can say I can well put in 
>public, not least with the thought that these observations in turn may 
>break the ice on this and set off others that may be yet more useful to 
>you with their comments and indeed to us all since you have done us a 
>great service with this well thought out and supported piece.
>
>
>    * New Technology: On p. 18, para 2: I for one would put that a bit 
> more strongly. Perhaps with irony?  You might possibly wish to tag on the 
> drawled English phrase &  , to say the least .  My point is that I really 
> do think that we need to keep this beast in the closet and not leave the 
> door even remotely ajar.
>
>    * Next para& I think it s a tad early to draw the curtain on Segways.
>
>    * Table 2: Title? Better perhaps? Impacts of new transport-related 
> technologies (This would permit us to slip in some of the other stuff 
> such as ICT through the transom.)
>    * Table 2: Under Increases Motorized Travel , possibly add  something 
> along the lines of Increased vehicle throughput via electronics (Yes, I 
> know it pushes over a bit into your second category, but it is a clear 
> villain and needs to be called as much. Under Reduces: Mobile telephony 
> interfaces with service suppliers
>
>    * Para 3, last sentence:  I would tend to be prudent here since in my 
> view at least technology is always a two edged sword and, wouldn t you 
> know? that other edge (the one that no one is looking at) has an awful 
> tendency to be very sharp and painful indeed. So I would tend to say 
> something along the lines that : Well, technology may promise to bring 
> about great improvements, but given their complex impacts it is best that 
> planners and policy makers remain highly critical about their overall and 
> longer term impacts . (That of course in your sober language which is far 
> better than my wording there.)
>
>    * Last sentence on that page, comment . . . Of course well deployed 
> ITS can do a lot to help you locate that parking space you would so 
> desperately like to find.
>
>    * Consumer Preferences:  On the possibility of a decline of at least 
> youth interest in cars, I would ask you to consider and maybe integrate a 
> few comments on:
>        * Attitudes in the developing countries are still for the most 
> part driven by all those good old images.
>        * Alternatives to vehicle ownership: carsharing & changes a lot 
> for at least certain groups and places, and with just a bit of luck might 
> become a major new behavioral norm.. in certain places and groups.
>        * One great way to change consumer preferences is for you to be 
> stuck in traffic while public and shared transport systems sail by you in 
> the HOV lane (and for this to happen, we do need to factor in some pretty 
> good new technologies).
>
>    * Freight Transport: There are two things there that we need to better 
> understand and then master in this important sector. First, the 
> importance of full cost pricing.. since the sector is massively protected 
> by the close to invisible ramifications of the old mobility mind set and 
> operating environment.  Second, the negative environmental impacts of 
> present arrangements, which need to be better mapped and understood.  And 
> finally that technology can do a lot to help us cope better with the 
> latter but since the price envelope is so skewed there is not sufficient 
> pressure on the suppliers and regulators to do a LOT better.  Which they 
> certainly could.
>    * Economic Instruments: You get partial whack at this else, and in 
> particular in your good page on Transportation Planning and Investment, 
> and again in the bottom of p. 24, but might there not be a good lively 
> whole section on this since it provides such a clearly powerful 
> instrument of total system rationalization and improvement.  For example:
>        * Full cost pricing: bringing up things such as road pricing, fuel 
> pricing, and yes! the price of sprawl which we could in fact adjust to 
> reflect full costs.
>        * Discriminatory pricing and subsidies: Really comes close to full 
> cost, but might introduce some thoughts on things like free or cheap 
> parking prices for poolers, carsharers; various kinds of support for 
> those who opt for human powered transport.  And maybe a few other things
>        * Value capture and land taxes:  (I have passed on your invitation 
> to our colleagues in the Land Café who know a lot about this and I rather 
> think you may be hearing from them.
>
>
>    * Who, where and why: Overall, I think it is fair to comment that your 
> analysis takes as its starting point for the most part the, let us call 
> them, OECD countries where there is a broad overall pattern, albeit with 
> a wonderful series of variants and differences. But of course these 
> countries at not the whole world, and indeed are in demographic and 
> future growth trends overall, almost trivial. (Sorry if I am hurting 
> anyone s feelings.)  The real action in the sector as far as growth, 
> resource, human and environmental impacts will be in those other parts of 
> the world where there are some five billion people and high continued 
> population growth rates. And these good people are GOING to change.
>
>
>If all that is true, why then is yours an important piece to which we need 
>to give closest attention.  Because for better or worse (and I often think 
>worse) we constitute the leading edge and the patterns that take over here 
>are going to be emulated by that other five billion-plus.  Which means 
>that we need to get actively involved in Making our on future and not just 
>letting it happen to us.
>
>
>
>Thanks again so much Todd for this most timely piece. I will now get off 
>the stage and let better and wiser voices take over.
>
>
>
>Eric Britton
>
>
>
>PS. I would much like to see if we could organize a free videoconference 
>around this theme, but as a group you all seem to be a slightly Luddish 
>lot when it comes to being at best only semi-comfortable with these 
>technologies (which in fact is the state of the art).  Sigh.  But it is 
>free, there for you to use, and believe me, it works. Check it out at 
><http://newmobilitypartners.org/>http://newmobilitypartners.org for 
>details and if you are up for it, please get in touch.
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Sincerely,
Todd Litman, Director
Victoria Transport Policy Institute
"Efficiency - Equity - Clarity"
1250 Rudlin Street
Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, Canada
Phone & Fax: 250-360-1560
Email: litman at vtpi.org
Website: http://www.vtpi.org