[sustran] Litman on "The Future ain't What It Used To Be"

[EcoPlan, Paris]

Dear Todd,

 

Your paper is so very good that whatever I can say I can well put in public,
not least with the thought that these observations in turn may break the ice
on this and set off others that may be yet more useful to you with their
comments – and indeed to us all since you have done us a great service with
this well thought out and supported piece.

 

*	New Technology: On p. 18, para 2: I for one would put that a bit
more strongly. Perhaps with irony?  You might possibly wish to tag on the
drawled English phrase “
  , to say the least”.  My point is that I really
do think that we need to keep this beast in the closet and not leave the
door even remotely ajar.


*	Next para
 I think it’s a tad early to draw the curtain on Segways.


*	Table 2: Title? Better perhaps? “Impacts of new transport-related
technologies” (This would permit us to slip in some of the other stuff such
as ICT through the transom.) 


*	Table 2: Under “Increases Motorized Travel”, possibly add  something
along the lines of “Increased vehicle throughput via electronics” (Yes, I
know it pushes over a bit into your second category, but it is a clear
villain and needs to be called as much. Under Reduces: “Mobile telephony
interfaces with service suppliers”


*	Para 3, last sentence:  I would tend to be prudent here since in my
view at least technology is always a two edged sword and, wouldn’t you know?
that other edge (the one that no one is looking at) has an awful tendency to
be very sharp and painful indeed. So I would tend to say something along the
lines that : “Well, technology may promise to bring about great
improvements, but given their complex impacts it is best that planners and
policy makers remain highly critical about their overall and longer term
impacts”. (That of course in your sober language which is far better than my
wording there.)


*	Last sentence on that page, comment . . . Of course well deployed
ITS can do a lot to help you locate that parking space you would so
desperately like to find.


*	Consumer Preferences:  On the possibility of a decline of at least
youth interest in cars, I would ask you to consider and maybe integrate a
few comments on:

*	Attitudes in the developing countries are still for the most part
driven by all those good old images.
*	Alternatives to vehicle ownership: carsharing 
 changes a lot for at
least certain groups and places, and with just a bit of luck might become a
major new behavioral norm.. in certain places and groups.
*	One great way to change consumer preferences is for you to be stuck
in traffic while public and shared transport systems sail by you in the HOV
lane (and for this to happen, we do need to factor in some pretty good new
technologies).



*	Freight Transport: There are two things there that we need to better
understand and then master in this important sector. First, the importance
of full cost pricing.. since the sector is massively protected by the close
to invisible ramifications of the ‘old mobility’ mind set and operating
environment.  Second, the negative environmental impacts of present
arrangements, which need to be better mapped and understood.  And finally
that technology can do a lot to help us cope better with the latter – but
since the price envelope is so skewed there is not sufficient pressure on
the suppliers and regulators to do a LOT better.  Which they certainly
could.


*	Economic Instruments: You get partial whack at this else, and in
particular in your good page on Transportation Planning and Investment, and
again in the bottom of p. 24, but might there not be a good lively whole
section on this since it provides such a clearly powerful instrument of
total system rationalization and improvement.  For example:

*	Full cost pricing: bringing up things such as road pricing, fuel
pricing, and yes! the price of sprawl which we could in fact adjust to
reflect full costs.
*	Discriminatory pricing and subsidies: Really comes close to full
cost, but might introduce some thoughts on things like free or cheap parking
prices for poolers, carsharers; various kinds of support for those who opt
for human powered transport.  And maybe a few other things
*	Value capture and land taxes:  (I have passed on your invitation to
our colleagues in the “Land Café” who know a lot about this and I rather
think you may be hearing from them.   

 

*	Who, where and why: Overall, I think it is fair to comment that your
analysis takes as its starting point for the most part the, let us call
them, OECD countries where there is a broad overall pattern, albeit with a
wonderful series of variants and differences. But of course these countries
at not the whole world, and indeed are in demographic and future growth
trends overall, almost trivial. (Sorry if I am hurting anyone’s feelings.)
The real action in the sector as far as growth, resource, human and
environmental impacts will be in those other parts of the world where there
are some five billion people and high continued population growth rates. And
these good people are GOING to change.

 

If all that is true, why then is yours an important piece to which we need
to give closest attention.  Because for better or worse (and I often think
worse) we constitute the leading edge and the patterns that take over here
are going to be emulated by that other five billion-plus.  Which means that
we need to get actively involved in “Making our on future” and not just
letting it happen to us.

 

Thanks again so much Todd for this most timely piece. I will now get off the
stage and let better and wiser voices take over.

 

Eric Britton

 

PS. I would much like to see if we could organize a free videoconference
around this theme, but as a group you all seem to be a slightly Luddish lot
when it comes to being at best only semi-comfortable with these technologies
(which in fact is the state of the art).  Sigh.  But it is free, there for
you to use, and believe me, it works. Check it out at
http://newmobilitypartners.org <http://newmobilitypartners.org/>  for
details and if you are up for it, please get in touch.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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