[asia-apec 949] Y2K approaches

[Roberto Verzola]

I sent this message ahead of the Y2K/paradigm shift posting, but it
did not come out, so I'm sending it again. It is a message I posted at
the Global Knowledge for Development (GKD) list, but which should be
relevant to any group that is talking about "crisis" and
"transformation".  -- Obet Verzola

* Original is in : GKD
* Original date  : 28 Nov 98  05:02:29
* Original is by : rverzola                           (6:751/401.1)
* Original is to : gkd at tristram.edc.org               (6:751/401)
* Full text below: 

I had earlier noted that a debate was brewing on this list on the
approach to the Millennium Bug. At least 2 approaches are possible (they
are somewhat mutually exclusive, I believe):

* BUSINESS AS USUAL: let's solve the problem and get on with it. This
     approach basically looks at the M-bug as an atypical case of
     misjudgment or perhaps temporary insanity, when a whole
     generation of designers lost their bearings entirely and happened
     to commit exactly the same blunder. Not a very plausible
     explanation, I think.

* SYSTEMIC REFORM: let's identify the deeply-flawed thinking processes
     behind the M-bug, which are probably the root cause of our other
     problems elsewhere, and use the crisis to initiate a thoughtfully
     planned process of discrediting and replacing these flawed
     thinking processes (I used the term "paradigm shift" earlier;
     "systemic reform" may sound less pompous to some).

The responses I received were near-unanimous in wanting to listen to
what the second approach has to say. I'll pursue this approach then:

We know that civilization is facing other serious problems:

* The tobacco problem alone probably causes more deaths each year
than what the M-bug will cause over the lifetime of the problem

* Ominous climatic changes which are threatening, among other things,
our food production systems;

* Nearly 50% drop in sperm counts worldwide over several decades,
which is apparently caused by ubiquitous chemicals of which millions
of tons are spewed by industry per year and which have also been
blamed for cancers and widespread mutations among the susceptible

* New threats posed by the environmental release and commercialization
of potentially harmful genetically-engineered organisms. Radioactivity
and toxic chemicals at least eventually dissipate; runaway engineered
mutants reproduce, multiply, mutate and evolve.

* The emergence of superviruses and antibiotic-resistant pathogens

* Persistent and worsening poverty, amidst extreme concentration of
wealth

* I could go on and on, but you get the idea...

My hypothesis is that the same deeply-flawed behavioral rules which
rendered designers blind to their Y2K blunder are also keeping other
planners today blind to the blunders enumerated above.

WHAT COULD THESE DEEPLY-FLAWED THINKING PATTERNS BE?

I do have my own ideas, but I'd like to invite all participants on
this list to pool together our collective wisdom and to exert our
utmost to recognize these deeply-flawed thinking patterns and
behavioral rules.

The moderators have offered to open a separate list to pursue this
"systemic reform" approach. I do welcome the offer, although it would
be nicer if we could actually continue the thread on the GKD list
itself, rather than split up from the main body of participants.

The turn of the millennium will see at least three global phenomena
peaking: 1) the Y2K problem; 2) millennarian and related movements
(the Catholic Church, for instance, has declared 2000 a jubillee
year--very significant!); and 3) the global financial crisis. We can
expect waves of universal soul-searching to envelop the land
throughout this period.

My hope is that we can together identify those deep-seated flaws in
our thinking patterns and behavioural rules, and initiate the
beginnings of a thoughtfully-planned process of reprogramming them.
Then perhaps we can start a counter-flow that can eventually cause a
titanic shift of direction away from the looming ecological disasters
ahead towards a future of ensured survival, sufficiency, and
sustainability.

Regards to all,

Roberto Verzola