[sustran] Re: Time to change our graphs? Vehicle sales in Japan 2008/2009

[Todd Alexander Litman]

The Twentieth Century was the period of the ascendency of the 
automobile. During that period, motor vehicle ownership and use grew 
from almost nothing to essentially saturation in developed countries. 
This provided significant benefits but also imposes significant 
economic, social and environmental costs. There is little 
justification for continuing to expand the highway system or support 
further increases in automobile travel since the marginal benefits 
are small while marginal costs are large. There are increasing 
benefits to diversifying our transportation system, including 
improvements to walking, cycling, ridesharing, public transportation, 
taxi services and telework, plus "smart growth" land use policies to 
support them.

It makes sense for developing countries to continue to improve their 
highway system and accommodate some increases in automobile 
ownership, but if they are smart they will implement policies that 
result in an efficient and diverse transportation system, based on a 
mutli-modal European model rather than an automobile-dependent North 
American model.

For more information see:
"The Future Isn't What It Used To Be" (http://www.vtpi.org/future.pdf )

Bruce Katz and Robert Puentes (2006), "Remaking Transportation Policy 
for the New Century: Speech To The Institute of Transportation 
Engineers," Brookings Institute 
(http://www.brookings.edu/metro/speeches/20060123_trb.pdf ).

Best wishes,
-Todd Litman

At 02:26 PM 23/12/2008, Jerry Schneider wrote:
>On Tue, 23 Dec 2008, Carlosfelipe Pardo wrote:
>
> > Cornie and all,
> >
> > Though not Asian, it may be relevant: In Colombia, car sales have been in
> > their 2 best years 2007 (250 thousand units sold) and 2008 (approx 220
> > thousand units sold). 2009 is expected to be lower, around 180 thousand.
> > So it was an emerging industry that will now "de-emerge"...
> >
> > These news, along with the recent news from Toyota of their first yearly
> > loss in 71 years and the big 3's "bailout" (which may just be a big
> > expenditure in a dying sector, like trying to resucitate the typewriter
> > industry in the beginning of the computer age), may mean that we're at
> > the end of something... or at the beginning of something else? However,
> > we were thinking the same with oil barrels at USD 140+, and now they're
> > "stabilising".
> >
> > Any ideas on what may the "something else" may be? It was easier before,
> > because we could say it was "The Age of the _____" and fill in the blank
> > with a vehicle. What should we say now? A fuel, or a specific mode... or
> > plain nothing? Maybe nothing is good.


Sincerely,
Todd Alexander Litman
Victoria Transport Policy Institute (www.vtpi.org)
litman at vtpi.org
Phone & Fax 250-360-1560
1250 Rudlin Street, Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, CANADA
"Efficiency - Equity - Clarity"
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