[sustran] Energy Policy – VTPI Special Newsletter

[Todd Alexander Litman]

Here is information on timely new energy policy reports:

"Managing Transport Challenges When Oil Prices 
Rise" 
(http://www.ltsa.govt.nz/research/reports/357.pdf 
), by McCormick Rankin Cagney, et al, for the New 
Zealand Transport Agency. Newspaper articles 
summarizing this study are available at 
http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominionpost/4664442a6000.html 
and http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10528808 .
This report provides practical guidance to 
central, regional, and local government agencies 
on how to manage the transport challenges 
associated with rising oil prices. It provides detailed information on:
•  Future Transport Fuel Price – Various 
forecasts are combined to model future transport 
fuel prices. This suggests that average oil 
prices will staying around $110 USD/barrel in the 
near future, but will increase to approximately $150 USD/barrel in 2012.
•  Future Travel Demands - Models are used to 
predict future travel demands, taking into 
account fuel prices, economic growth, vehicle 
ownership, workforce participation, and 
disposable income. Under the average fuel price 
scenario total New Zealand vehicle travel 
declines below current levels until approximately 
2016, after which the combined effects of 
population and economic growth will cause vehicle travel to increase.
• Optimal Responses to High Oil Costs – Various 
responses are identified and evaluated in terms 
of their ability to reduce economic risks and 
help achieve other planning objectives. The 
recommended strategies result in a more efficient 
and diverse transport system, providing various 
economic, social and environmental 
benefits.               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"Addressing Climate Change Without Impairing the 
U.S. Economy: The Economics and Environmental 
Science of Combining a Carbon-Based Tax and Tax 
Relief" 
(http://www.climatetaskforce.org/pdf/CTF_CarbonTax_Earth_Spgs.pdf 
), by Robert Shapiro, Nam Pham and Arun Malik for The U.S. Climate Task Force.
This study used the U.S. Department of Energy’s 
National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to 
evaluate the economic impacts of a Carbon Tax 
(http://www.vtpi.org/carbontax.pdf ) that begins 
at $14 per ton of CO2 equivalent and increases to 
$50 per ton, with 90% of the revenues returned to 
households and businesses in tax relief and the 
remaining 10% of revenues used to support energy 
and climate-related research and development, and 
new technology deployment. They conclude that the 
U.S. can reduce climate change emissions by 30% 
and would only reduce 2010-to-2030 GDP growth from 33.6% to 33.4%.
               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"Is The U.S. On The Path To The Lowest Motor 
Vehicle Fatalities In Decades?" 
(http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/60424/1/100969.pdf 
), by Michael Sivak for the University of 
Michigan Transportation Research Institute.
This study found that a 2.7% decline in vehicle 
travel caused by fuel price increases and a weak 
economy during 2007-08 resulted in much larger 
17.9% to 22.1% month-to-month declines in traffic 
deaths, probably due to disproportionate 
reductions in vehicle travel by lower income 
drivers (who tend to be young and old, and 
therefore higher than average risk), and speed reductions to save fuel.
               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"Carbon Taxes: Tax What You Burn, Not What You 
Earn" (http://www.vtpi.org/carbontax.pdf ), by Todd Litman.
This paper describes carbon taxes in general and 
the British Columbia in particular. It answers 
common questions and evaluates criticisms of the 
tax. A separate paper, "Improving BC’s Carbon 
Tax: Changes and Enhancements To Increase 
Effectiveness and Equity" 
(http://www.vtpi.org/carbontax_improvement.pdf ) 
describes ways to address some of these criticisms.
               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


We recently updated our reports, "Appropriate 
Response To Rising Fuel Prices" 
(www.vtpi.org/fuelprice.pdf ) and "Smart Emission 
Reduction Strategies" (www.vtpi.org/ster.pdf ) 
which discuss various factors to consider when 
evaluating transportation energy policies.
               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Victoria Transport Policy Institute is an 
independent research organization dedicated to 
developing innovative solutions to transportation 
problems. The VTPI website (http://www.vtpi.org ) 
has many resources addressing a wide range of 
transport planning and policy issues. VTPI also 
provides consulting services. Please let us know 
if you have comments or questions about our 
resources, or if you would like to be removed 
from our email list. And please pass this 
information on to others who may find it useful.
              ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sincerely,
Todd Alexander Litman
Victoria Transport Policy Institute (www.vtpi.org)
litman at vtpi.org
Phone & Fax 250-360-1560
1250 Rudlin Street, Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, CANADA
“Efficiency - Equity - Clarity”