[sustran] Re: Guangzhou joins the list of cities in China with a quota for new vehicles

[Cornie Huizenga]

Hi Eric,

Can you elaborate on the following two points:


   1. The "wonderful surprise " is that this quota idea could very well in
   this
   complex real world in which we live ACTUALLY MAKE THINGS WORSE!!!  (On
   this
   point I invite all who care to work through how and why this is likely
   to be
   the case.)  -- *taking the examples of Singapore and Shanghai which both
   have had quota's for many years I fail to see how traffic and associated
   effects have become worse in these cities?*
   2. Who said we should wait?  We KNOW how to do it, and all
   that is needed is to get the ball rolling in the right direction. If the
   will were there the solution process could start to be engaged tomorrow
   morning.  --* what is the package of measures that you would propose to
   accomplish the same effects?*

best regards,

Cornie

On Tue, Jul 3, 2012 at 8:07 PM, eric britton <eric.britton at ecoplan.org>wrote:

> To: eric britton  Cc: 'Global 'South' Sustainable Transport' On Behalf Of
> Carlosfelipe Pardo  Sent: Tuesday, 03 July, 2012 09:01
>
>
>
> With China's motorization rate, it's probably dumber not to do anything and
> keep thinking of any better solutions...  I think there are things that can
> definitely be improved, but if we wait and see how to do it (or wait for a
> policymaker in China to pay attention), we'll have those billions of cars
> sooner than we expected! The quotas are a first step towards a new agenda,
> or at least I see it that way.
>
> ___________________________________________________________________
>
>
>
> >From Wikipedia this morning, just to set the stage:
>
> "Dialectic is a method of argument for resolving disagreement that has been
> central to Indian and European philosophy since antiquity. The dialectical
> method is dialogue between two or more people holding different points of
> view about a subject, who wish to establish the truth of the matter by
> dialogue, with reasoned arguments."
>
>
>
> Dear Carlos and All,
>
>
>
> I am delighted to see that I may have hit a nerve, not least because I
> really think that this sort of no-holds barred open discussion is vital not
> only for sustainability and democracy but also for good governance and
> quality of life. And Sustran and any other groups who might chose to carry
> this discussion are the just  kinds of independent peer platforms for those
> who care to let the full range of voices and views be heard.  We owe
> nothing
> to anyone or any government except to share with all our best understanding
> of the truth at the core of our difficult self-assigned challenge..  So
> let's see what we can get with a good dose of creative disagreement this
> morning on the topic of quotas.
>
>
>
> To start by agreeing with you Carlos:  Yes of course what you say here
> makes
> a certain kind of sense -- but let's turn it around a bit to see if there
> may be a bit more to it that we might usefully take into consideration.
>  And
> since we are basically looking at behavioral and not transport issues per
> se
> here, in this I appeal to your training as a psychologist to share with us
> your views.
>
>
>
> Here are the three central point's I hear you saying this morning, by the
> numbers:
>
>
>
> a.                  It's probably dumber not to do anything and keep
> thinking of any better solutions
>
>
>
> b.                  But if we wait and see how to do it, we'll have those
> billions of cars sooner than we expected!
>
>
>
> c.                   The quotas are a first step towards a new agenda.
>
>
>
> Let's take a step back and see if I can parse them point by point:
>
>
>
> .         Your a.  On the surface that would seem to make a certain kind
> good sense. But the reality is considerably more complex.
>
> The problem with this line of reasoning though is that a bad policy like
> this can be maintained by an authoritarian government (and there are a lot
> of them out there) for quite a long time, without feeding into any process
> that is capable of taking into account the real world feedback and the
>  full
> complexity of the issues and the available solutions.  It is not the
> beginning of something, it is a dead end.
>
> Here is what my ears hear the government implicitly saying in this
> situation. "Yes dear citizens, we understand that we have a problem with
> all
> those cars in our cities. And yes, happily for you all,  we have a
> solution.
> And the solution is this . . . "   And implicitly beyond that: "And now
> since we have therefore solved the problem, all you need to do is to behave
> in terms of the new legal and behavioral model, and all will be in order."
> (Which in song goes: "So hush little baby don't you cry".)
>
>
>
> Now this is not to contest the value of "authoritarian expert solutions"
> (though I do personally contest them). But the key problem here is not that
> a quota system is a poor way of "improving" the
> cars/mobility/economy/quality of life nexus.  (Although it most definitely
> is, but we can get to that another day if necessary.)
>
>
>
> The "wonderful surprise " is that this quota idea could very well in this
> complex real world in which we live ACTUALLY MAKE THINGS WORSE!!!  (On this
> point I invite all who care to work through how and why this is likely to
> be
> the case.)
>
> And as to "keep thinking of any better solutions", the fact is that there
> are many known policies and well-tested measures which could be brought on
> line in a matter of a few weeks or few months max -- it is only that the
> process need to be seriously engaged.
>
> But for now their "solution" appears to occupy all the intellectual and
> media terrain, so in fact it is blocking the process of the more complete
> policy debate that is called for especially in situation of this level of
> great complexity.
>
>
>
> .         Your 2. Who said we should wait?  We KNOW how to do it, and all
> that is needed is to get the ball rolling in the right direction. If the
> will were there the solution process could start to be engaged tomorrow
> morning.
>
>
>
> .         Your 3:  Somebody pinch me.  I don't know whether to laugh or cry
> at that one.  What is proposed here is quite exactly just one more step in
> an old and tired agenda.
>
>
>
> # # #
>
>
>
> To conclude (for now): This is not China bashing (I am not that dumb).  But
> cari amici it's 2012 and there is a big and troubled world out there badly
> in need of real ideas and good examples.  And if there is one thing about
> the Chinese elephant that appeals greatly to me, it is that China is today
> the one elephant on this gasping planet that can turn on a dime. And since
> they are unique, it would be a wonderful thing if all of us who care could
> find a way to work with our Chinese colleagues in a true peer fashion to
> get
> the government and the cities  turning on the right dime.
>
>
>
> We could do that, you know.
>
>
>
> Regards/Eric Britton
>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------
>
>
>
> On Behalf Of Carlosfelipe Pardo  Sent: Tuesday, 03 July, 2012 09:01
>
> To: eric britton  Cc: 'Global 'South' Sustainable Transport'
>
>
>
> With China's motorization rate, it's probably dumber not to do anything and
> keep thinking of any better solutions...  I think there are things that can
> definitely be improved, but if we wait and see how to do it (or wait for a
> policymaker in China to pay attention), we'll have those billions of cars
> sooner than we expected! The quotas are a first step towards a new agenda,
> or at least I see it that way.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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>
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>



-- 
Cornie Huizenga
Joint Convener
Partnership on Sustainable, Low Carbon Transport
Mobile: +86 13901949332
cornie.huizenga at slocatpartnership.org
www.slocat.net