[sustran] Re: [SUSTRAN] Re: Tata Nano: CriminalizingMobility
orMobilizing Crime
Lee Schipper
schipper at wri.org
Fri Jan 25 00:41:41 JST 2008
thanks Carlos -- mi faltan las palabres!
And greetings from Stockholm, where the discussion continues tomorrow (friday) as part of David Bauner's Thesis defense, for which I am the "opponent". This issue will come up.
Lee Schipper
EMBARQ Fellow
EMBARQ, the WRI Center for Sustainable Transport
www.embarq.wri.org
and
Visiting Scholar
UC Transportation Center
Berkeley CA USA www.uctc.net
skype: mrmeter
+1 510 642 6889
Cell +1 202 262 7476
________________________________
From: Carlosfelipe Pardo [mailto:carlosfpardo at gmail.com]
Sent: Thursday, January 24, 2008 7:32 AM
To: Walter Hook
Cc: Lee Schipper; 'Gina Anderson'; anumita at cseindia.org; Rhys Thom; sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
Subject: Re: [sustran] Re: [SUSTRAN] Re: Tata Nano: CriminalizingMobility orMobilizing Crime
So we would have to really work on convincing government (Indian and others... even Colombians are now saving for the Nano, which is predicted to be here in a year or two) so that pricing for vehicle use is adequate: road pricing, parking policies, etc. That way, citizens wil find that using a vehicle is not as cheap as just buying it. If the charges for using the vehicle are invested in proper public transport, etc, people may think "hey, using the car is just too expensive, I'll take the (improved) bus today".
I think Walter's point on regulation is fair and very useful to take into account. If the industry thrives on the cheapness of a new vehicle, it's because the government hasn't been able to properly regulate the industry and costs are not reflected. If the Nano is sold in Singapore, I think the final cost of just buying it would be approx 7500 USD. And using it every day to go to the CBD would also reflect true costs.
So it's our job to work on the regulations, while industry works on the vehicle itself. Maybe production of the Nano has less carbon emissions than other vehicles? (SUVs, at least, must be much more carbon emitting...).
Carlosfelipe Pardo
Coordinador de Proyecto- Project Coordinator
GTZ - Proyecto de Transporte Sostenible (SUTP, SUTP-LAC)
Cl 93A # 14-17 of 708
Bogotá D.C., Colombia
Tel/fax: +57 (1) 236 2309 Mobile: +57 (3) 15 296 0662
carlos.pardo at sutp.org www.sutp.org
Walter Hook wrote:
So what are you proposing? Banning them? If there are safety and tailpile
grounds to single out this vehicle, ok, then the case should be articulated
in that way.
But I think this is hyperbole. You can already get dirt cheap motorbikes,
you can already use dirt cheap three wheelers, dirt cheap used Ambassadors
which probably cost roughly the same and are probably as good value for
money, traffic is already chaos in some places.
-----Original Message-----
From: Lee Schipper [mailto:schipper at wri.org]
Sent: Thursday, January 24, 2008 10:13 AM
To: Walter Hook; Gina Anderson
Cc: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org; Rhys Thom; anumita at cseindia.org
Subject: RE: [sustran] Re: [SUSTRAN] Re: Tata Nano: CriminalizingMobility
orMobilizing Crime
I think Walter the problem is timing. If a cheap car races in and
mesmerizes everyone BEFORE a truly sustainable collective system with
good and well protected NMT is there, all is lost...If the entrance of
the car is slowed down, and really mean much slower, I fear chaos will
reign on streets. One doesn't have to ban it but one has to be sure one
is charging for its reall costs imposed on local and global citizens.
Lee Schipper
EMBARQ Fellow
EMBARQ, the WRI Center for Sustainable Transport
www.embarq.wri.org
and
Visiting Scholar
UC Transportation Center
Berkeley CA USA www.uctc.net
skype: mrmeter
+1 510 642 6889
Cell +1 202 262 7476
-----Original Message-----
From: Walter Hook [mailto:whook at itdp.org]
Sent: Thursday, January 24, 2008 7:05 AM
To: 'Gina Anderson'; Lee Schipper
Cc: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org; Rhys Thom
Subject: RE: [sustran] Re: [SUSTRAN] Re: Tata Nano:
CriminalizingMobility orMobilizing Crime
Gina,
Nice to hear from you! Of course there is going to be a major problem,
but there will be a problem whatever the price of the car, it will just
manifest itself sooner with lower car prices. Mumbai was proposing
banning the car.
Well, if they proposed banning it for some safety or tailpipe emission
reason, ok, but it is absurd to ban it because the cost is low. This
is, however, the tendency in Asia, to simply ban vehicle categories.
They also banned non motorized three wheelers, diesel buses, etc. In
Guangzhou they just banned motorcycles. Some good results of this, and
some bad ones. In my view, banning vehicles due to low cost is a bad
idea and sets an absurd regulatory precedent. There is a general
problem in India of using such blanket bans to make up for the general
inability of government to regulate in a more sophisticated way. I am
hoping that over time pressure from motorization might lead to the use
of more sophisticated regulatory tools, like parking regulation, proper
tailpipe regulation, road worthiness testing, etc.
-----Original Message-----
From: sustran-discuss-bounces+whook=itdp.org at list.jca.apc.org
[mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+whook=itdp.org at list.jca.apc.org] On
Behalf Of Gina Anderson
Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2008 8:40 PM
To: Lee Schipper
Cc: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org; Rhys Thom
Subject: [sustran] Re: [SUSTRAN] Re: Tata Nano: CriminalizingMobility
orMobilizing Crime
Thanks for setting some things out clearly Lee.
Walter, your remarks seem a bit disingenuous. While theoretically there
is no "problem" with an inexpensive car, I'm guessing you'd say there is
a problem with government's ability/willingness to price
parking/fuel/road use? to optimize efficient and equitable transport.
But, the situation in most cities worldwide including Indian cities is
that conventional mechanisms and pricing related to transport are in
place. Introducing a cheap vehicle in such circumstances will clearly
lead to worse levels of congestion in urban areas. I'm sure you know
the term "super crush loading", which is a technical term that had to be
coined to describe the level of service (LOS) on Indian commuter trains
at peak times when passengers were hanging onto the outside of cars for
their commute; certainly I made use of it when you were my thesis
advisor 10 years or so back. Wouldn't a similar type of term need to be
used to describe the LOS on roads in developing countries where
motorization is expanding rapidly?
Using the "theory of second best", meaning that the ideal solution is
too difficult to reach (assuring sustainable transport by having "use"
pricing that adequately promotes efficient modes, assuring all people
can have their mobility needs met), the second best solution would have
to be concerned with a very low cost car. It will skew the economics of
transport decision-making and will cause worse mass congestion - and
then truly only those with higher incomes will be able to get around.
Gina Agarwal Anderson
--
Regina Anderson, AICP
WholeChoice Master Planning, Pedestrian Design, Sustainability Singapore
phone +65 6467-6594
Quoting Lee Schipper <schipper at wri.org> <mailto:schipper at wri.org> :
Setty makes a fair point, but that's just the dilemma facing transport
everywhere. The time-space geographer Waerneryd used the problem in
the
early 1970s -- only a car will connect all the tasks for those
parents.
The problem is that Waerneryd worked in Sweden, where even in the
1970s
the kinds of congestion Bangalore and other Indian cities have NOW
was
unknown (and is still pretty mild). So an additional driver in Sweden
could pretty much count on connecting more dots with a car than with
collective transport.
Steven Tyler studied Knivsta, a town n. of Stockholm on the main
railroad line and road to Uppsala. He wondered why so many people
drove
to work? There were two answer -- one, tax policy permitted deduction
for commuting expenses, and a car could be deducted if it saved 1/2
hour, and two, far more jobs were accessible by car than by mass
transit
within a given amount of driving time. In the early 1970s Sweden had
the highest car ownership in Europe -- but it lost that lead to
Germany,
Italy, and now even other countries. One reason may be the good mass
transit, i.e., that the number of people who really save money and
time
driving to work maxed out. Local authorities are trying to do that all
over Scandinavia to reduce driving. Who is doing that in India, China,
or the US today?
Sweden also pioneered green taxes. If you bought a "standard" car in
the
1990s you paid somewhat higher purchase taxes than if you bought one
that satisfied California's more demanding pollution norms. This eased
in a rapid transition away from leaded fuel (which cost more than
unleaded from the mid 1980s) and from "high" sulfur diesel (high
compared to the present <15 ppm in Sweden today, but well below Indian
levels!).
Now let's consider an Indian city. The roads are already choked - some
will save time as above if they now drive to where they have to go.
But
how much time (and pollution) will everyone else suffer? Is the
balance
the same as in Sweden (or if you will, the US, where the AVERAGE
commute
is still under 25 minutes, albeit with a clear tail)? Stockholm
recently
opted for a congesting charging scheme to try to ration better the
available space on the limited number of bridges and other ways into
town. Could or should Indian cities do the same? Should they start NOW
before decisions about car ownership and housing are made, or after,
as
Stockholm did? Congestion charging may not be the ideal mechanism for
India, but it has helped achieve a better balance on crowded roads in
Stockholm, London, and for many years Singapore
So Setty, the question is not whether the family you describe is right
or wrong, rather, what policy package would put them in a position to
consider ALL costs not just their own gains in time? And what
mechanisms
are appropriate for ALL cities to achieve a better balance between
individual and collective traffic? It seems to me that if motorizing
cities act first to strengthen collective transport, strengthen and
enforce emissions and fuel norms, and establish a clear tradition that
everyone pays for the costs he/she imposes on others (congestion,
noise,
air pollution etc)
I wish I knew the answer. Unfortunately even the so called leader of
the
Free Market, the US, can't seem to wrap its mind around the Swedish
approach. Which one will India choose?
Lee Schipper
EMBARQ Fellow
EMBARQ, the WRI Center for Sustainable Transport
www.embarq.wri.org
and
Visiting Scholar
UC Transportation Center
Berkeley CA USA www.uctc.net
skype: mrmeter
+1 510 642 6889
Cell +1 202 262 7476
-----Original Message-----
From: sustran-discuss-bounces+schipper=wri.org at list.jca.apc.org
[mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+schipper=wri.org at list.jca.apc.org] On
Behalf Of Pendakur
Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2008 10:16 AM
To: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
Subject: [sustran] Re: [SUSTRAN] Re: Tata Nano: Criminalizing Mobility
orMobilizing Crime
It would be good if all the people who have sent in discussions on the
"smart Tata car", to place themselves in the position of a person, say
in Bangalore (india), who has two children and a spouse, all going to
different destinations. Even though the bus system is ok in
Banaglore,
compared to other cities in India, it would take this family a great
deal of time and money to reach their destinations,. In addition, all
four destinations (2 schools and 2 work places) are farther apart.
This
smart car is a boon to this family. It will cut their travel time in
half and provide a safer vehicle than the motor cycle they use now.
Eloquence is good (criminalizing mobility) but empty eloquence from a
distance is rarely of any significance.
Cheers.
Setty
Dr. V. Setty Pendakur
Professor Emeritus, University of BC
Honorary Professor, China National Academy of Sciences; Director, ITDP
(NY) & Secretary, ABE90-TRB
President, Pacific Policy and Planning Associates
702- 1099 Marinaside Cresecent, Vancouver, BC Canada V6Z 2Z3
604-263-3576; Fax: 604-263-6493
-----Original Message-----
From:
sustran-discuss-bounces+pendakur=interchange.ubc.ca at list.jca.apc.org
[mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+pendakur=interchange.ubc.ca at list.jca.apc
.org
] On Behalf Of Walter Hook
Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2008 9:45 AM
To: edelman at greenidea.eu
Cc: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
Subject: [sustran] Re: Tata Nano: Criminalizing Mobility or Mobilizing
Crime
Todd
People in developing countries still face significant mobility
constraints, and for them low cost vehicles are a boon. A motorbike, a
motorized three wheeler, a car, these things may be an economic
lifeline
to a relatively poor family.
Ownership without use poses relatively minor social problems, so what
is
the problem with a cheap car? The social problems are primarily
associated with use, so it is primarily the cost of the use of
vehicles
that needs to be increased to reflect the true social cost, not the
ownership of the vehicle.
The optimal cost of the car is the cost it takes to make a car someone
wants safely that meets all the regulatory requirements. With China
and
India becoming big producers and mechanization proceeding apace, the
price of motor vehicles in real terms is likely to fall over time.
All
manufactured goods fall in price. Falling consumer prices are in
general a sign of progress. Less of society's labor required to
produce
the vehicle, leaves money to spend on something else.
However, what is never going to fall in price is the value of downtown
real estate, including the value of road space in desirable locations.
There is only one Greenwich Village in Manhattan, and on streets with
extremely expensive real estate parking is absolutely free. Of course
the result is that there is virtually no parking available, and most
of
this valuable real estate ends up being used as a car storage facility
for local residents and shop owners. This is completely crazy, and
people are slowly waking up to this madness.
What is also unlikely to fall in price is oil. Hence, over time the
use
of vehicles is going to increase in price, and the cost of ownership
decrease in relative terms.
It is not impossible to imagine that at some point cars, like cell
phones, will be practically given away for free in order to sell much
more expensive services related to them, like parking, oil, whatever.
With Zip Car, you don't need to own the vehicle at all, you are mainly
paying for the garaging and gasoline and vehicle maintenance. The
replacement cost of the vehicle is relatively minor. One can imagine
that you could pay so much for a parking slot in a garage that the
garage eventually will throw in the use of the car for free.
It seems to me an exercise in futility and risks sounding elitist to
complain about the low cost of vehicles when the social problem lies
elsewhere.
w
-----Original Message-----
From: sustran-discuss-bounces+whook=itdp.org at list.jca.apc.org
[mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+whook=itdp.org at list.jca.apc.org] On
Behalf Of Todd Edelman, Green Idea Factory
Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2008 6:33 PM
Cc: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
Subject: [sustran] Re: Tata Nano: Criminalizing Mobility or Mobilizing
Crime
Hi Walter,
Walter Hook wrote:
I was interviewed by a few reporters on this, and I said I didn't
think
that
the low cost of the vehicle was in and of itself a problem.
OK
If the vehicle
is not fully road worthy, crash worthy, or up to minimum tailpipe
emission standards, those are serious social problems.
YES
Other than this, it is great
if the cost of vehicles goes down.
WHY?
However, it will create pressure on the governments to charge
prices
that more accurately reflect the full social cost of the use of the
vehicle, through coherent parking charges and road user charges.
COULD you explain this, please?
Cheap cars do not generate any more congestion than expensive
ones. I suppose this was not what they wanted to hear, so maybe it
wasn't
picked up.
THANKS,
T
-----Original Message-----
From: sustran-discuss-bounces+whook=itdp.org at list.jca.apc.org
[mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+whook=itdp.org at list.jca.apc.org] On
Behalf
Of Lee Schipper
Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2008 3:21 PM
To: bruun at seas.upenn.edu; sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
Subject: [sustran] Re: Tata Nano: Criminalizing Mobility or
Mobilizing
Crime
WE had a discussion of these issues on "On Point" , a US radio show,
today which you
Can hear at wbur.org. Email me if you have problems as I know where
there is an mp3 of the 50 minute broadcast. Anumita Roychowdry of CSE
and a Professor from MIT were also on the show and there were call
ins
as well.
lee
Lee Schipper
EMBARQ Fellow
EMBARQ, the WRI Center for Sustainable Transport
www.embarq.wri.org
and
Visiting Scholar
UC Transportation Center
Berkeley CA USA www.uctc.net
skype: mrmeter
+1 510 642 6889
Cell +1 202 262 7476
-----Original Message-----
From: sustran-discuss-bounces+schipper=wri.org at list.jca.apc.org
[mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+schipper=wri.org at list.jca.apc.org] On
Behalf Of bruun at seas.upenn.edu
Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2008 12:17 PM
To: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
Subject: [sustran] Re: Tata Nano: Criminalizing Mobility or
Mobilizing
Crime
Hassaan
The reason people are alarmed is because they can see where this is
going -- in the wrong direction against sustainable development and
livable cities. But mostly the discussion in the press has been about
fuel consumption, greenhouse gasses, and air pollution.
One thing that has been under-reported is the consequences to
pedestrians and biyclists. Far more are killed than motorists
themselves
in India. An increase in cars will increase the death and maiming to
them far more than to motorists. But being piles of junk built to a
very
lax safety standard, these TATAs will no doubt be killing a lot of
their
users as well, and bring the ratio up.
This negative impact will only be temporary. One of the things people
haven't talked about in the press at all, as this is not as well
known,
is the sheer physical impossibility of accommodating so many cars.
Within a short period of time, all the parking and road space within
many cities will be used up and traffic will move to slowly to cause
many serious accidents. Look at Chinese cities already, with only 2.5
percent auto ownership.
On the other hand, how can this be stopped? You are certainly right
that
the regulatory oversight is not yet in place. But if India's
government
works even remotely like the US government, the auto interests will
be
working behind the scenes to slow this oversight down as much as
possible. If the rich are allowed to drive around, why can't other
people? Until some restraints are put on cars in general, it would be
class warfare to only ban these small cheap cars.
Eric Bruun
Quoting Hassaan Ghazali <hghazali at gmail.com> <mailto:hghazali at gmail.com> :
Friends,
There was a time when a Model T rolled off the Ford assembly line
every few seconds. I do believe that was probably the most exciting
and the most positive time for the US economy. Now, it seems Tata's
mobility breakthrough has everyone on the edge and I am surprised to
see so many negative sentiments being expressed within South Asia. I
don't remember so many issues abounding when Daimler-Chrysler's
Smart
car came out. Regardless of the fact that the Smart car was probably
one major reason for the eventual divorce between Daimler and
Chrysler, how does the economic and social disparity between the
developed and developing world create the context to despise such an
incredible product?
Shall we all begin by shunning technology which aims to empower the
masses or shall we encourage its uptake and ensure that the whole
suite of technological constructs (institutions, policies,
regulatory
oversight,
etc.) are also provided.
Regards,
Hassaan
--
Institutional Development Specialist
Urban Sector Policy and Management Unit (The Urban Unit) Planning &
Development Department, Government of the Punjab
A: 4-B Lytton Road, Lahore, Pakistan
T: 9213579-84 (Ext.116)
F: 9213585
M: 0345 455 6016
Skype: halgazel
http://hghazali.googlepages.com
*When conditions are right, everything will go wrong*
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