[sustran] New Report On Transport Trends

[Todd Alexander Litman]

For Immediate Release: 20 January 2005
For more information: Todd Litman, <litman at vtpi.org>.


"The Future Isn't What It Used To Be: Changing Trends And Their 
Implications For Transport Planning," by Todd Litman, Victoria Transport 
Policy Institute (http://www.vtpi.org/future.pdf)

New report indicates increasing importance of transportation system diversity.

Abstract
This report examines demographic, economic and market trends that affect 
travel demand, and their implications for transport planning. Motorized 
mobility grew tremendously during the Twentieth Century due to favorable 
demographic and economic conditions. But the factors that caused this 
growth are unlikely to continue. Per capita vehicle ownership and mileage 
have started to decline, while demand for alternatives such as walking, 
cycling, public transit and telework is increasing. This indicates that 
future transport demand will be increasingly diverse. Transport planning 
can reflect these shifts by increasing support for alternative modes.


Study Conclusions
Between 1900 and 2000 per capita vehicle travel increased by an order of 
magnitude due to favorable technical, demographic and economic trends. 
However, this study indicates that these trends are beginning to change. 
Toward the end of the Century per capita automobile travel stopped growing 
in the U.S., and started to decline after 2000. This decline is likely to 
continue due to factors discussed in this report.

An increasing portion of the population will need or prefer to rely on 
alternative modes such as walking, cycling, ridesharing, public transit, 
telework and delivery services. Automobile transport will continue to be 
important, but the role of other modes will increase.

Transportation professionals should take these trends into account when 
making strategic decisions. We should plan for a mature transport system, 
with less emphasis on roadway system expansion and more emphasis on 
improving transport system efficiency and diversity.

For example, if we start developing a new suburban highway now, it will be 
completed about the time that most Baby Boomers retire, fuel prices rise 
significantly, and consumers increasingly value walkable neighborhoods. It 
may be better to anticipate these trends by investing resources in 
alternative modes and creating less automobile-dependent communities.

Although this paper investigates transport patterns in wealthier, developed 
countries, the analysis has important implications for lower-income, 
developing countries.



Sincerely,
Todd Litman, Director
Victoria Transport Policy Institute
"Efficiency - Equity - Clarity"
1250 Rudlin Street
Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, Canada
Phone & Fax: 250-360-1560
Email: litman at vtpi.org
Website: http://www.vtpi.org