[sustran] Re: Ridership predictions, urban rail transit

[John Ernst]

An interesting side-light comparing the Bangkok and Denver rail transit 
systems is that the Bangkok system is considered a failure for moving only 
220,000 passengers per day while the Denver system is a resounding success 
moving 25,000 passengers per day.

Okay, there's more differences than similarities -- urban size, density, 
construction cost, routing, though roughly similar system length at present.

What is interesting is the public perception.  Denver RTD predicted 20,000 
riders, so at 25,000 could announce success -- though surely they are 
losing money at that level (anyone know?).  Bangkok predicted 400,000 plus 
because they needed to show they could pay for the all elevated system and 
make a profit.  So, 220,000 riders using a well-run system with a 3-minute 
headway looks like a failure because it's not paying for itself. 
(Fortunately, er unfortunately, Bangkok doesn't consider how much private 
cars aren't paying for themselves.)

John

At 10:08 AM 10/19/01 +0800, Craig Townsend wrote:
>There was a lack of independent study of the 24km elevated heavy rail 
>Bangkok Transit System ...The forecasts were for 400,000-600,000 
>passengers per day (no one ever really took the high end forecasts 
>seriously) and actual ridership at present was recently estimated at 
>220,000 passengers per day. While it is considered a failure because it 
>hasn't met ridership forecasts, to most people in Bangkok it is considered 
>a good thing for a number of other reasons (it is estimated that 40,000 of 
>the daily passengers were previously driving)...

At 10:12 AM 10/18/01 -0600, John Renne wrote:
>Alan, Check out the Regional Transportation District (RTD) in Denver, 
>Colorado. They had a new light rail line open last summer and predicted 
>ridership far underestimated actual ridership. I wish I knew more, but you 
>can look them up on the web at www.rtd-denver.com

>>From: Alan P Howes <howes at emirates.net.ae>
>>Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2001 18:38:18 +0400
>>Can anyone point me to a reference on predicted vs. actual ridership
>>for new urban rail transit systems? (or better still qute some
>>examples). I saw something in a mag. recently saying that quite a few
>>in the US recently have failed to meet expectations - and I know
>>Bangkok has been accused of the same.
>
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>John Ernst   -  Asia Regional Director
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>ITDP - The Institute for Transport and Development Policy    www.itdp.org
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