[sustran] Re: Fw: [sustran] Re: Ridership predictions, urban rail transit

[Wendell Cox]

Interesting information. Mumbai is on my list for a visit, I hope within the
next year.

Data seems to indicate the possibility that Mumbai is the world's most
densely populated urbanized area, perhaps even higher than Hong Kong. My
understanding is that the 2001 census data shows a slight increase in the
island city population, though there has been incredible growth in the
balance of the city. Have not been able to determine the extent of urbanized
area growth outside the city, but would not be surprised if it were
substantial. I think there are predictions to the effect that Mumbai could
emerge as the world's largest urban area in a couple of decades. Of course,
there was a time that the same was said about Mexico City and Sao Paulo, and
both have settled into much slower growth patterns.

But the Mumbai public transport and rail situtation is a good example of how
different things are between the world's urbanized areas. Too often our
western colleagues fail to recognize that there is a difference between
Mumbai and say, Portland or Phoenix. Indeed, the Mumbai municipality's 12
million people are huddled in an area only 1.5 times the size of Portland,
with its 500.000 residents. If one took out the  national park that occupies
a large part of the area annexed in the late 1950s, the land area is
probably below that of Portland.

The point... What makes sense in Mumbai is likely to be rather different
than in places that look much different.


DEMOGRAPHIA & THE PUBLIC PURPOSE (Wendell Cox Consultancy)
http://www.demographia.com (Demographics & Land Use)
http://www.publicpurpose.com (Public Policy & Transport))
Telephone: +1.618.632.8507 - Facsimile: +1.810.821.8134
PO Box 841 - Belleville, IL 62222 USA
----- Original Message -----
From: kisan mehta <kisansbc at vsnl.com>
To: sustran-discuss <sustran-discuss at jca.ax.apc.org>
Sent: Sunday, 21 October, 2001 09:59
Subject: [sustran] Fw: [sustran] Re: Ridership predictions, urban rail
transit


>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: kisan mehta <kisansbc at vsnl.com>
> To: <sustran-discuss at jca.ax.apc.org>
> Sent: Sunday, October 21, 2001 7:31 PM
> Subject: [sustran] Ridership predictions, urban rail transit
>
>
> Dear Sustran Colleagues,
> >
> > I am amazed by the lively discussion on studies taken
> up on rail services. Majority of them talk of underutlisation
> of facilities planned and/or created.
> >
> > In Mumbai, the situation is different.  Basic Suburban
> Railway Services in Mumbai built in the Thirties.
> This helped the city to grow along the railway corridor between Fifties
and
> Eighties.  Amalgmation of small
> municipalities of the then suburbs with that of Island City accelerated
the
> expansion or rather sprawl of the city.
> >From a mere 800,000 in 1901 Mumbai touched in March
> 2001 12 million staying on 434 sq km area with a suffocating average
density
> 27,000 persons per sq km.
> >
> > The Island City is losing in population in favour of
> erstwhile suburbs.  Trading activities are concentrated
> in the Island City.  So long train and bus journeys. An
> estimated 55% of Mumbai's jobs are provided by
> people living outside the Island City.
>
> Mumbai does not have metro or adequate extension
> of suburban railways.  Railway and bus services
> provide about 10 million journeys a day.  Both
> services are crowded to a suffocation level at four
> times the normal capacity.  Trains run so jam packed
> that they say proverbially that a commuter would not
> be able to move his wrist away even if he feels his
> wrist watch being pinched.
>
> Railways are owned by the Indian Government and
> Buses by the municipality.  We wonder whether
> sophisticated travel demand management concepts
> have any relevance at all in human centres of the
> developing countries.
>
> With globalisation and free market access operating
> on full scale, the government priority in the so
> called developing (respectable designation for poor)
> countries is motor roads and expressways.  The
> Maharashtra Government built about 80 km of
> the 160 km of Mumbai Pune Road at the cost of Rs
> 16 billion. Toll from motor cars using the facility
> does not cover even the interest cost of Rs 2.4
> billion. The Finance Minister admited the other day
> that the expressway has proved to be financially
> unviable.  Best wishes.
>
> Kisan Mehta  kisansbc at vsnl.com
>
>