[sustran] Re: Bicycle King in China

[Heather M. Fenyk]

Chris, Sustraners:  FYI Hahnel's original Znet article

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One Giant Step Backward for Human Kind
By Robin Hahnel

Shortly after 1949 several of the most remarkable events in human
history occurred in China. In the world's most populous and oldest
civilization, where the last decadent dynasty had given way to
warlordism and foreign domination, an ambitious, uncorrupted government
whose power was uncontested anywhere on mainland China launched a social
revolution which eventually failed for reasons I do not propose to
discuss here. The same government, however, adopted some remarkable
public policies, the wisdom of which has become more apparent with
hindsight. Unfortunately, China's headlong rush into capitalism is
reversing these wise public policies with far reaching consequences for
the rest of humanity as well as the Chinese.

For hundreds of years prior to 1949 drought and floods lead to the
deaths of millions of people almost every year in one part of China or
another. Prior to 1949 the river of starving, landless Chinese peasants
migrating to cities where they crowded into crime and disease ridden
ghettos without infrastructure or services -- doubling the size of
ancient cities whose infrastructure was already insufficient to support
existing residents -- was as large as any human river flowing in any
third world nation in Asia, Africa, or Latin America. And the population
bomb, where parents sought to provide for their own eldercare in a
context of high infant mortality and no public assistance for those too
old to work, ticked louder and more ominously in China than anywhere
else. Almost over night the new government put an end to famine, large
scale rural-to-urban migration, and the population explosion for one
sixth of humanity. The revolutionary government decided that regional
famine would be more carefully anticipated and prevented by timely
transportation of food surpluses from other regions and effective
distribution unthwarted by profiteering or corruption. The new
government decided that industrialization would NOT be accompanied by
over urbanization in China. Land reform and industrial investment in
smaller cities and towns dramatically decreased the demand for
rural-urban migration, while strict enforcement of residency permits
attached to work permits decreased the opportunity for rural-to-urban
migration. Finally, the new government successfully enforced a one child
per family policy, and created a universal public health and pension
system that dramatically reduced infant mortality and provided
trustworthy, public elder care. Moreover, for all their mistakes, as
incomes grew over the decades the Communist government resisted making
the most tragic technological mistake of twentieth century capitalism:
transportation via the automobile.

Now every one of these miraculous accomplishments is in full retreat.
The Communist Party once asked forthrightly, "What must we prevent," and
"What must we do to prevent it?" Now the Party asks only "How can we
maximize opportunities to enrich ourselves and repress the consequent
social unrest?" Collective agricultural was dismantled, the new rural
wealthy are consolidating private holdings and prioritizing cash crops,
and government food distribution systems are no longer reliable.
Regional famines are again a serious possibility with food imports and
international relief efforts the only stop gap. Job security, and along
with it pensions and access to health care, are gone and one child per
family is rapidly eroding in fact. Only China among third world
countries avoided flooding its cities during the last half of the
twentieth century. Now the flooding is a tidal wave. As bad as Mexico
City, Sao Paulo, Cairo and Calcutta are, we have yet to see what over
crowded cities look like in a country with over a billion people. But we
will.

Last but not least, China has finally embraced the automobile. Ask any
environmentalist what it means if even a quarter of Chinese households
drive a car. Ask anyone who knows anything about global warming what it
will mean. It is literally unthinkable, yet this is the road China is
happily driving along. Not that anyone from the world's greatest
imperial power that is addicted not just to cars, but to SUVs no less,
ahs any oral right to preach to the Chinese. Nonetheless, I had already
seen the numbers about cars in China, but I had repressed the nightmare
until the Washington Post intruded on my self-delusion by running an eye
witness account from Beijing on its front page March 12.

In "Bicycle No Longer King of the Road in China" Philip Pan tells us:
"It was just a little tap, but Song Yuhua had had enough. When the
taxicab bumped her bicycle and sent her tumbling onto the pavement, the
50-year-old factory worker refused to dust herself off and pedal away.
Even after the cabby apologized and cars lined up behind him, Song stood
in the polluted haze of the evening rush hour and shook a finger at the
long column of frustrated motorists honking their horns at her. 'You're
not even supposed to be in this lane!' she cried. 'This is a bike lane!'
And for a moment, a lone bicyclist appeared to stop the advance of the
automobile in China. But then a police officer intervened, Song yielded
and the cars began moving again, allowing China to resume its relentless
drive toward a future in which the long-beloved bicycle may be reduced
to a toy. For nearly half a century, multitudes of cyclists packed the
dusty boulevards of Chinese cities. Now, after decades of steady
increases, the number of bicycles on China's streets has begun to fall.
There are still nearly twice as many bicycles in China -- 540 million --
as there are people in the United States. But riding one is more of a
hassle than ever. Cars rule the roads now, spewing exhaust into
cyclists' faces, pushing them into crowded side lanes and striking them
with startling frequency. Housing reform has led people to move farther
from their jobs, making bicycle commutes increasingly impractical. Less
than a decade ago, residents of Beijing mounted their bicycles for 60
percent of all trips in the city, according to Chinese traffic studies.
Today, the figure is down to 40 percent. Farther south, in Shanghai and
Guangzhou, it has dropped to as low as 20 percent. The masses did not
begin to buy bicycles until after the 1949 Communist Revolution, often
receiving a government subsidy to do so. Families considered the bicycle
a prized possession; women sometimes refused to marry men who did not
own one. But bicycle production has been falling since 1995, and almost
all the bikes made in China now are exported. Barely 1 million were
produced for sale here in 1999, compared with more than 30 million just
five years earlier, according to government statistics. At the same
time, China has been promoting car ownership to boost the nation's auto
industry and give the country a more modern image. Car sales are up 15
percent a year. In Beijing alone, the number of cars has nearly tripled
to 1.6 million since 1993. More often than not, city leaders have sided
with the cars. In Guangzhou, they tried to outlaw bikes from downtown
completely in 1993, but a popular outcry led to a partial ban instead.
In Shanghai, there are plans to force bicycles out of the city center by
2010, and most major streets are already off limits during rush hour.
Even in Beijing, home to 11 million bicycles, more than any other city
in the world, police are experimenting with a ban on a jammed street
about a mile northwest of the Forbidden City. An officer there orders
bicyclists to dismount; they often respond with colorful curses. 'These
roads used to be ours,' said Du Xiaoying, 40, sneaking down the street
on her black Flying Pigeon bicycle. 'Now, the cars have taken over. They
drive too fast. They even park in our lanes. There's nothing we can do.'
Like many car drivers, Liu Jianshu, 38, has no patience for bicycle
nostalgia. 'What kind of country would we be if we were all still riding
bicycles? This is progress. This is development,' he said. 'Who wants to
ride a bicycle when you can drive a car?' Many Chinese agree. A recent
survey in 20 cities by the Association of Chinese Customers found a
third of urban families plan to buy a car within five years. Such
attitudes alarm environmentalists. They warn that if the percentage of
the population owning cars in China reaches Western levels, there would
be more automobiles here than in the rest of the world combined."

After reading this I found myself swearing, "J Curve my ass!" You see
there is a theory in environmental economics that teaches that salvation
is just around the corner provided globalization is permitted to spread
capitalism's bounties to the third world, raising their average income
level to ours. The idea is that what are called "environmental
amenities" - I kid you not - are consumption goods for which demand
increases when income rises sufficiently. You get the idea. Popular
demand to protect the environment in the third world will turn around
through natural market forces just like the letter "J" if we can just
raise average income in the third world. Pollution and environmental
degradation are the result of poor people in the third world choosing
not to buy environmental amenities, yet, because their incomes are still
too low. So, China's environment was in grave danger when Chinese income
was low and evenly distributed -- and everyone bought bikes. But now,
fortunately, the Chinese environment is coming out of the woods as
average income rises and becomes more skewed -- and hundreds of millions
of Chinese respond to new government policy and propaganda and buy a
car. Isn't enough to make you want to stuff the J curve up someone's
tail pipe?




______________________heather m. fenyk
                                       phd student and instructor
                         rutgers university - planning and public policy

                 p.o. box 446 - new brunswick, nj 08903
                   tel. +1 732 846-7993 | fax. +1 732 846-7993
         fenyk at eden.rutgers.edu  |  http://www.policy.rutgers.edu/index.html
----- Original Message -----
From: Chris Zegras <czegras at MIT.EDU>
To: <sustran-discuss at jca.ax.apc.org>
Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2001 5:17 PM
Subject: [sustran] Bicycle King in China


> Hi Eric and others,
>
> I have not seen the original article that Hahnel refers to (In "Bicycle No
> Longer King of the Road in China" (Washington Post 3/12/01, Philip Pan)) -
> the Wash Post only allows you to review archived pieces up to 14 days ago.
> Nor have I seen Hahnel's commentary (ZNET requires a subscription)....but,
> maybe you could send an email to Robin Hahnel and ask if he'll write an
> abbreviated version of the article for carfreeday?  rhahnel at american.edu.
>
> Cheers,
> cz
>
> At 02:00 AM 3/28/2001 +0900, you wrote:
> >Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 21:03:48 +0200
> >From: eric.britton at ecoplan.org
> >Subject: [sustran] "Bicycle No Longer King of the Road in China"
> >
> >Chris and All,
> >
> >Any thoughts as to how we might make this into one of the next Earth Car
> >Free Day Today pieces on www.carfreeday.com?  It says so poignantly what
the
> >challenge is.
>
> --------------------------------------------------
> Christopher Zegras
> MIT * Center for Environmental Initiatives * Room E40-468
> 1 Amherst Street * Cambridge, MA 02139
> Tel: 617 258 6084 * Fax: 617 253 8013
>
>