[sustran] Re: sustainable transport vision for Hong Kong - collaborator needed

[Daryl]

Lisa Hopkinson,

The way of forecasting transit demand by predicting growth is problematic
because it is transportation availability that leads economic, and physical
development, not the other way around.    Planners today are still planning
transportation systems according to proven ways, using the "just build
more", and "make small improvements" philosophies that have worked for the
last 90 years.  This is fine as long as the plans yield desired results. The
adage  "if you keep doing what you are doing you will keep getting what you
are getting" works every time. The approach is starting to fail.  Prime
evidence of this is the continuing failure of light rail in American
markets, and the fact that the automobile is replacing the bicycle in China.

The sustainability movement is based on clear observations that present
planning methods do not yield desired results.  The undesired results
include: acid rain, global warming, storm runoff, blocking wildlife
movements, bad air quality, noise, accidents, unsustainable energy
consumption, crumbling infrastructure, and time wasting congestion.

It is becoming increasingly popular to advocate a return to old ways.  The
current sustainable communities movement, the smart growth initiative, and
other "new" planning approaches are thinly veiled bids to return to old ways
of living - ways that have already proven unsustainable.  If these new
planning approaches are used, there will be big problems to deal with down
the road.  The new planning ways will quickly collide with the social
momentum of expanding affluence.


Planners must recognize that what was once sustainable for the world, is not
necessarily sustainable for the future.  There are several transportation
technologies that promise a new sustainable global age of prosperity for
all - including the third world.  If planners fail to implement the new
technologies, our grandchildren are destined to face worsening economies,
degrading environmental conditions, wide spread starvation, and wars, as
they fight to survive in a world without cheap energy.

The Japanese economy has been in a down turn for 11 years, the situation is
worsening witness the recent "free money" (zero interest rate) policies.
The US economy is posed for a continued slide despite desperate measures to
stimulate growth.  Much of the flat global economy can be traced to three
major causes; population growth, escalating energy costs, and stagnation in
transportation advances. The automobile and airplane where the quantum leaps
a hundred years ago that created American prosperity.  Energy experts
estimate that world oil production will peak around 2010. The automobile and
airplane are not sustainable options for developing economies that are
struggling to attain the affluence of the developed world.  A new quantum
leap is needed.

There are low cost, environmentally benign, sustainable transportation
technologies that can enable prosperity for all, despite the global peak in
oil production we face in seven to twelve years.  They are: Evacuated Tube
Transport (ETT),  MoPods, and Personal Rapid Transport (PRT),

EVACUATED  TUBE  TRANSPORT is:
FAST - N.Y. to L.A. in 45min.- D.C. to Beijing in 2 hours - 500kph local,
6500kph mph international.
CONVENIENT- runs continuously - travel when you want to, no delays or stops.
EFFICIENT- compared to existing methods, uses less than 1% of the energy,
and much less materials to build.
CLEAN- environmentally benign - can use renewable energy;  95% less damage
than a highway.
SAFE- eliminates most chance of collisions, protected from adverse weather
and obstacles.
ACHIEVABLE- all the equipment exists to start building ETT now, mostly with
off-the-shelf parts.
The automated, silent ETT works by eliminating resistance.  Aircraft-like
cabins travel in tubes on thin steel wheels, or frictionless MagLev.  No air
is in the tube to cause resistance.  Energy used to accelerate is recycled
when slowing.  Riding is like relaxing in a recliner.   A human powered ETT
can achieve 500kph

MOPODS combine the advantages of the car and scooter.  The 100kg (unloaded)
fully enclosed MoPod is highly streamlined and hauls 2 persons up to 120kph
with only a 5kw motor.  The mopod costs a tenth of a Hyper Car and delivers
more than double the efficiency.  The mopod is compatible within the ETT
system, or the overhead PRT systems.  The MoPod takes half of the lane space
of a car, effectively doubling infrastructure capacity at only the cost of
painting an extra stripe.

PRT stands for personal rapid transit.  Automated PRT uses less than a tenth
of the materials and energy required to build and operate a light rail
system.  PRT can cover a whole city for the same cost as a single rail line
system.  PRT uses less than a tenth of the energy.  PRT moves at 160hph
verses the 20 to 50kph of light rail systems.

For a sustainable transportation vision to have any chance of success it
must offer better service at lower cost, while using much less energy.  It
must offer a way to increase prosperity while improving environmental
conditions.  To be sustainable in a world of diminishing energy supply the
vision for Hong Kong transportation must include transit systems that offer
at minimum a tenfold improvement in energy and materials usage.  To be
successful in the marketplace the vision must improve on the capacity and
speed of existing systems.   Starting a ETT / MoPod / PRT initiative in Honk
Kong can set an example for the whole world; and spark a new global
prosperity that is unimaginable today.

I hope that the expert you select is well acquainted with the new
technologies that are available.  There are many transportation planners and
practitioners schooled at the finest universities, who have years of
experience with traditional systems.  They will likely promote costly
systems that offer at best a 30 to 50 percent improvement in efficiency,
capacity, or speed, but not all three at the same time.  Worse yet, are the
"new age" pseudo experts that fail to recognize the extent of global
reliance on transportation, and advocate abandonment of technically advanced
transit methods in favor of solutions that are really just a return to a
basic subsistence survival mode living enjoyed now in developing countries.

Let me know if I may be of any assistance in your effort.

Best Regards,

Daryl Oster, CEO, et3.com Inc.
e-mail: et3 at fx2.com   Phone: (352) 795-5415   Mobile: (352) 257-8337

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-sustran-discuss at jca.ax.apc.org
[mailto:owner-sustran-discuss at jca.ax.apc.org]On Behalf Of Lisa Hopkinson
Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2001 7:25 PM
To: 'sustran-discuss at jca.ax.apc.org'
Cc: 'wbarron at hkucc.hku.hk'; 'cloh at civic-exchange.org'
Subject: [sustran] sustainable transport vision for Hong Kong - collaborator
needed

Dear SUSTRAN members,

Civic Exchange is a nonprofit think tank in Hong Kong
(www.civic-exchange.org) with a focus on sustainability issues. We are
looking for a collaborator for our study to outline practical elements of A
MORE SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT SYSTEM FOR HONG KONG.
>
The basic idea is to develop an independent 'vision' of how to make theHong
Kong transport system far more sustainable over the next several decades.
Dr Bill Barron of the University of Hong Kong who is the Project Leader for
the study will do one vision and we are looking for an overseas expert to do
another. Each vision would consist of a number of specific practical steps
that arguably could be undertaken within the next decade or so.
>
For each step there should be at least some degree of rough quantification
to show the scale and time frame (major, secondary/long term, mid term) of
the expected impacts of each step in addressing Hong Kong's major transport
related problems (worsening congestion, pollution, noise). To the extent
feasible, it would also be useful to qualitatively assess benefits related
to such things as lessening community disruption and overall quality of life
due to transport externalities. For your information, the need to
fundamentally reassess transport policy in Hong Kong occurs in the context
of a projected 20% increase in population over the next 15 years in a
setting which is already among the most densely populated in the world.
>
It is expected that the major elements to be considered would include [but
not necessarily be limited to]: (i) broad approaches to urban passenger rail
system financing (e.g., the cost share covered by fares, by government, from
other sources), (ii) the role of various zero or low emission road transport
technologies (e.g., electric trolley buses, trams, fuel cells, CNG, clean
diesel, (iii) mid and long term planning options (e.g., pedestrianization,
greater separation of sensitive
receivers from noise/pollution emitters).  Of course, if the overseas expert
has additional ideas that he/she thinks worth including in the vision, we
would welcome these.
>
For the overseas expert's participation we have budgeted $US 25,000 as
payment, plus expenses for 2 Trips To Hong Kong (1 for a 10-12 day trip for
familiarization and data collection that could take place anytime at the
consultant's convenience between May and October  2001 and a second 2-4 day
trip to participate (and make a presentation) in a public
seminar/forum and related activities -- in January or February 2002). This
seminar/forum would also include presentation of a vision Dr Barron will
develop along with (we hope) one presented by the government's Transport
Bureau. The seminar/forum would be used to 'kick-off' a longer termeffort to
stimulate a public debate and consultation with government
>about the future of transport for Hong Kong.
>
In addition to the data collection trip, the overseas expert will be able to
obtain some limited assistance from the project team in Hong Kong.
>
IF YOU FEEL THAT YOU WOULD BE INTERESTED IN BEING CONSIDERED FOR THIS
CONSULTANCY,  PLEASE LET ME KNOW AND SEND DETAILS OF YOUR BACKGROUND
EXPERIENCE AND QUALIFICATIONS.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Lisa Hopkinson
Head of Research, Civic Exchange