[sustran] transport and the asian econ. debacle

[Institute for Transportation and Development Policy]

Just a few thoughts on Paul Barter's request for transport impacts of the
Asian economic debacle. 

Spoke to some folks at the World Bank and some friends in Indonesia about
the situation there.  Several interesting connections...

Bank failure in Hong Kong was largely due to a major loan to a Jakarta taxi
company owned by the President's son which had expanded too rapidly in an
attempt to take over the market and get involved in toll road construction.
They borrowed, aparently, largely using the name of the President as
collateral. 

Major toll road project in Surabaya was cancelled.  The triple decker toll
road-light rail line proposed for Jakarta was put on hold before the crash,
but is certain to be dead in the water now.  Toll roads, normally pretty
lucrative,  appear to have been pretty hard hit because they have some
foreign currency borrowing but all their revenues are in domestic currency,
so they were badly hit by the change in the exchange rate. 

Borrowing for public sector roads from the World Bank, ADB, and JICA is not
slowing down, however; rather, it is increasing.  Previously the Indonesian
govt share had to be something like 50%, now it only has to be something
like 25%.  This is because these loans are being used to channel foreign
exchange to the Govt to repay its suddenly dramatically increased foreign
debt.  

Of course, this begs the question as to whether the over $8 billion in
foreign borrowing for roads in the last couple decades didn't partially lead
to the debt crisis, since there is no reason these roads increase govt
revenue sufficiently to cover the debt.  Most experts clain the indonesian
bad debt is mostly in private hands. 

In Jakarta, most people are dependent on public transit, a lot of which is
in private hands.  No question they are going to be hit by increased oil
prices. Food prices etc. are also rising.  Many believe there would be riots
in Jakarta already if it weren't the middle of Ramadan, soon followed by
Idul Fitri. 

Maybe this is a strategic opportunity to push for non-motorized solutions.
Even the govt might be willing to back dramatic increases in bike use, since
it would reduce the burden of increased oil prices.  Cuba went for the bike
for this reason.    

Official hostility to the becak does not seem to extend to the bicycle.  

Maybe there is a similar opening elsewhere in Asia for this reason? 

Best, 
Walter 

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