[asia-apec 188] KOHL'S VISIT TO INDONESIA

[sonny at nation.nationgroup.com]

EAST TIMOR OVERSHADOWED BY BUSINESS ON KOHL INDONESIA VISIT: ANALYSTS
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JAKARTA, Thursday, Oct 24, 1996 -- Agence France-Presse

German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, due here Saturday, is under intense
pressure to raise human rights issues in East Timor during his visit, but
analysts and officials say he will not do so at the expense of trade ties.

Nobel peace prize co-winner Jose Ramos-Horta, Portuguese Prime Minister
Antonio Guetteres, Germany's Social Democratic Party and Amnesty
International have all urged Kohl to push for respect for human rights in
East Timor when he meets President Suharto on Monday.

"It will be made public and reported in the press but the tone will not be
confrontational or condecending, but gentle pressure," analyst Juwono
Sudarsono, vice governor of the National Defence Institute, told AFP.

Germany, as a member of the European Union, does not recognise Indonesian
sovereignty over East Timor, where more than 200,000 people have died in a
prolonged conflict since the invasion, according to unofficial estimates.

Sudarsono said Kohl "must" flag the issue of East Timor with Suharto
during the 90-minute formal talks to satisfy pressure groups in Germany
but he will keep the issue "low key" in contrast to economic topics.

The two heads of state have met numerous times and have a "cordial and
correct but not particularly warm" relationship, according to one palace
watcher.

The two are due to spend Saturday and Sunday fishing in waters off the
exclusive Bira Island, north of Jakarta, where some analysts say Kohl may
raise the issue of East Timor, away from international cameras.

"I think the president will listen, but as a former soldier and a Javanese
he will be adamant in insisting any improvements (in East Timor) would be
on our terms," Sudarsono said.

Jakarta is clearly hoping economic concerns and not human rights will top
Kohl's agenda.

"I don't think he will raise the issue (of East Timor) because he comes
with the intention to expand trade and increase investment," said Ghaffar
Fadyl, spokesman for the Indonesian Department of Foreign Affairs.

"I don't think he's coming to find an issue or criticism of Indonesia."

Germany is the tenth largest foreign investor in Indonesia, having
ploughed 5.04 bilion dollars into the country over the last 29 years. It
ranks behind Japan, Netherlands, South Korea and Australia, among others.

"Quantity wise, investment is not at the level we want. Germany's
investment is lacking," said Fritz Kliensteuber, director of the
German-Indonesia Economic Association. While Germany exported 2.54 billion
dollars in products-- mainly machinery and electronic equipment -- to
Indonesia in 1995, Indonesian exports to Germany -- mainly garments and
wood products -- stood at only 1.89 billion dollars.

Germany will be using Kohl's visit to seal involvement in the 40 billion
dollar Natuna Islands gas project off the eastern coast of Kalimantan, as
well as the Memberano power plant and chemical reduction works in Irian
Jaya (West Papua), Kliensteuber said.

The Natuna development is viewed as a pet project of the German-trained
Indonesian Research and Technology Minister, Jusuf Habibie, who is seen as
a driving force behind the bilateral relationship.

A bilateral agreement on commercial shipping and joint ventures on life
insurance and education are also to be signed.

But analysts say it is likely East Timorese youths could steal the
spotlight from multi-million dollar business if they take advantage of
Kohl's visit and attempt to enter the German Embassy grounds.

A total of 89 East Timorese have been granted asylum in Portugal after
entering 10 foreign embassies in Jakarta over the last 18 months. The last
group which entered the German Embassy, in April, were expelled by
security guards and handed over to Indonesian military police who pinned
them down on the foothpath outside the embassy, kicked and beat them up.

Germany lodged an official protest over the incident.

Kohl is scheduled to leave for the Philippines next Tuesday before
travelling to Japan.