<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"> <head> <meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=us-ascii"> <meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 12 (filtered medium)"> <style>  </style>  </head> <body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple> <div class=Section1> Dear Sustran Friends,<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> I wonder if this way of looking at an important policy problem from both a local and broader national perspective simultaneously might have its uses in Global South situations as well.  In any event what you have here is an article which I intend to publish in the panel discussions for the incoming Obama administration which are being held at <a href="http://transportation.nationaljournal.com">http://transportation.nationaljournal.com</a>.  Should you have any comments or suggestions on this now would be a great time to have them? hope you find something of use in this.<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> Kind regards, Eric Britton<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> <o:p> </o:p> <div style='mso-element:para-border-div;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding:0in 0in 1.0pt 0in'> <o:p> </o:p> </div> <h1 align=center style='text-align:center'>" What Does $1.67 Gasoline Mean for the Future?" <a style='mso-footnote-id:ftn1' href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title="">[1]</a><o:p></o:p></h1> <o:p> </o:p> <![if !supportLists]>-       <![endif]>by Eric Britton, 6 January 2009 <o:p></o:p> New Mobility Partnerships, Paris and Los Angeles<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> I would like to look at the usual of large swings in the price of gas at the pump from two very different perspectives. The first is that of someone born and raised in a rural small-town environment in northeastern Mississippi, which today looks a great deal different from how things were when I was a child there.  The second is from the vantage of a strategic planner with a specialty in the politics of transportation from both a sustainability and international perspective. I would then like to see if we can find a way to put these two presumably polar positions together for policy purposes for the incoming administration. <o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> Let's start with the Mississippi perspective.<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> Letter from Mississippi<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> Today down in the lightly settled rural areas around my hometown of Amory Mississippi there are at least three unyielding realities which most of our friends and neighbors have to confront every day.  <o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> First, that the time in which our town was a lively place which served to provide both the people who lived in town and surrounding communities with a wide range of goods and services all within walking or biking distances somehow disappeared in the closing decades of the last century.  No one here is quite sure of how or why it happened, but it did and it was a great loss.<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p>  The second harsh reality is that as the town emptied out the only possible way of getting around today is . . .  if you have a car.  A very American phenomenon. But there is more to it than that.<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> The third is that most of us down there are not particularly rich, meaning that when gas prices double or triple it hits us a lot harder than the average American. We are not only one of the poorest states in the union, but today more than 20% of our neighbors live below the official poverty level.  And a lot more than that if you are a rural white and sadly worse yet if you are a rural black.<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> So  as an average citizen from northeastern Mississippi I have some questions about how the new team in Washington is going to deal with the harsh realities we face both now and will surely have to face in the years ahead. This is one problem we can be sure is not going to go away by itself.<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> Maybe I should add in closing that we have figured out that there is more to it than just cars, transportation and the price of gas at the pump.  Maybe some of you up there should be telling us how we can get back to towns that offer more than an empty street and closed storefronts. That has to be part of our solution.<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> Back in the days of the War Between the States, our part of Mississippi resisted for a long time pressure to secede from the United States. We were and are to this day proud and independent people. But what we now need from Washington are some clear signals and a good understanding of the realities we face every day.<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> We're waiting to hear from you.<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> From an international perspective<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> My eight colleagues who have already filed their information and views on this here have covered a lot of the very important bases for which I'm grateful.  I would now like to take a couple of steps back from the heat of the action and share with you my thoughts on how this looks from an international and more strategic sustainability perspective. <o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> When we step back from the stove a couple of things become clear:<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> <ol style='margin-top:0in' start=1 type=1> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-list:l2 level1 lfo2'>We are going to see continuous and at times violent swings in the price of petrol in 2009 and in the years ahead.  This is the inescapable reality of the future.  <o:p></o:p></li> </ol> <o:p> </o:p> <ol style='margin-top:0in' start=2 type=1> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-list:l2 level1 lfo2'>At no time in the past have we seen such wide in rapid fluctuations.  This suggests to me that  whatever our future policy is it better be very different from the past.<o:p></o:p></li> </ol> <o:p> </o:p> <ol style='margin-top:0in' start=3 type=1> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-list:l2 level1 lfo2'>It is my firm belief that this high volatility can be turned toward to our advantage if we tackle it in a sufficiently strategic and politically savvy manner. I and a thousand others have written in the past that "a crisis is a terrible thing to waste", and since this is an excellent case in point.  I hope that we will put our brains together to make sure we don't waste this one<o:p></o:p></li> </ol> <o:p> </o:p> <ol style='margin-top:0in' start=4 type=1> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-list:l2 level1 lfo2'>However unless there is a tidal change in our approach, the likelihood is that we are going to lurch from one to the other and in the process show ourselves as unable to assume responsibilities of good governance. This is no time for complacency and wait and see.  I would say that we have done enough waiting and seeing for at least the next eight years.<o:p></o:p></li> </ol> <o:p> </o:p> <ol style='margin-top:0in' start=5 type=1> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-list:l2 level1 lfo2'>The reality is that we have all the tools needed to engage a policy called steady and significant increases in price at the pump, which is needed for all the reasons which my colleagues here have pointed out very well and which I therefore need not repeat, while at the same time ensuring that those who today are both highly dependent on their cars will not suffer from the necessary strategic price increases.<o:p></o:p></li> </ol> <o:p> </o:p> <ol style='margin-top:0in' start=6 type=1> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-list:l2 level1 lfo2'>So we know we have to do, and that is to work out and implement a clear game plan for these steady price increases, beginning immediately. If Europeans can live with gas at close to $10 a gallon, Americans can to.  And this can be achieved moreover without a sacrifice in life quality.<o:p></o:p></li> </ol> <o:p> </o:p> All we need is leadership to show the way.<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> Eric Britton<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> PS.  I'm reading a fine book by James M. McPherson on the leadership challenges that then-new president Abraham Lincoln faced when he arrived in Washington, DC in 1861.  The book, "Tried by War”, which I strongly recommend to you, offers a number of striking analogies to the situation and the stresses that President-elect Obama is undoubtedly going to have to face and deal with when he takes office in just two weeks time.  President Lincoln had plenty of advisors and plenty of generals, but things began to move in the right direction only when he took control of it himself.<o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> <o:p> </o:p> </div> <div style='mso-element:footnote-list'> <hr align=left size=1 width="33%"> <div style='mso-element:footnote' id=ftn1> <a style='mso-footnote-id:ftn1' href="#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title="">[1]</a> The following was my third  invited contribution to an ongoing "insider policy discussion" sponsored by the National Journal In Washington DC , which has as its intention to provide counsel to orient and guide the incoming Obama administration on matters involving policy and investments in the transportation sector.  This piece specifically in response to Discussion Topic: “What Does $1.67 Gasoline Mean for the Future?”  which opens with the statement (Lisa Caruso) : “When gasoline hit $4 a gallon last summer, many Americans started driving less, buying more fuel-efficient cars and taking public transportation. But now that gas is much cheaper, Americans may make different choices. With fuel prices and consumer demand so variable, what is the best way to encourage investment in greener, more fuel-efficient alternatives, and what does this uncertainty mean for long-term infrastructure planning?”                             <o:p></o:p> <![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>To access the discussions <a href="http://transportation.nationaljournal.com">http://transportation.nationaljournal.com</a>.  <o:p></o:p> <![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Links to feeds to follow discussions.  <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/njgroup-transportation">http://feeds.feedburner.com/njgroup-transportation</a> <o:p></o:p> <o:p> </o:p> </div> </div> </body> </html>