<html> <body> Thank you for sharing this. Cox is a master of propaganda and it's good to be reminded of the sort of messages he produces. His analysis is inaccurate and dishonest, but persuasive. For example, he fails to account for important confounding factors or discuss alternative interpretations. He assumes that correlation reflects causation, at least when it in his interest. He never (as far as I know) publishes in peer-review journals, and so his claims are never evaluated by independent experts. Let me highlight a few misrepresentations in his claims: First, it is simply wrong to assume that "sprawl" and "suburb" are interchangable. Smart growth is not anti-suburb, that is, it is not opposed to the geographic expansion of cities, it is concerned with the type of development. Suburbs can be well designed to be complete communities, with multi-modal transportation systems, or they can be automobile-dependent sprawl. Commute trip time is not itself a primary transportation efficiency indicator, since commutes only represent only about 30% of total travel time, and there are other geographic factors that affect commute time. In particular, commute travel time tends to increase in larger urban areas with higher level jobs (the sort of specialized jobs that are concentrated in cities). Other studies indicate that per capita daily minutes of driving decrease with urbanization and smart growth. See for example Lawson's paper, "The Urban Structure and Personal Travel: An Analysis of Portland, or Data and Some National and International Data, (http://www.demographia.com/dib-smg.htm , see table 18). Lawrence Frank, Brian Stone Jr. and William Bachman (“Linking Land Use with Household Vehicle Emissions in the Central Puget Sound: Methodological Framework and Findings,” Transportation Research D, Vol. 5, No. 3, May 2000, pp. 173-196.) found that increases in household and employment density, and street connectivity all tend to reduce vehicle mileage, travel time, trips and cold starts, and as a result tend to reduce air pollution emissions. Cox claims that density increases congestion and pollution, measured per square mile, an absurd reference unit. Although it is true that the intensity of congestion increases with density, per capita congestion delays decline, since travel distances are shorter and people have more travel alternatives. Similarly, per capita air pollution emissions decline with density and transportation diversity. You can tell that Cox's claims are propaganda because he never explains why he choose a particular unit of measurement or how changes in such units would affect his results. For more discussion see "Land Use Impacts on Transportation" (<a href="http://www.vtpi.org/landtravel.pdf" eudora="autourl"> http://www.vtpi.org/landtravel.pdf</a> ), "Evaluating Criticism of Smart Growth" (<a href="http://www.vtpi.org/sgcritics.pdf" eudora="autourl"> http://www.vtpi.org/sgcritics.pdf </a>) and "Congestion Costs" (<a href="http://www.vtpi.org/tca/tca0505.pdf , which discusses how different ways of measuring congestion costs result in different conclusions" eudora="autourl"> http://www.vtpi.org/tca/tca0505.pdf , which discusses how different ways of measuring congestion costs result in different conclusions</a>). Best wishes, -Todd Litman At 09:33 AM 9/30/2006, Daryl Oster wrote: <blockquote type=cite class=cite cite="">Subject: Europe: Commuting Faster in Suburbs than Cities Commentary: <a href="http://www.fromtheheartland.org/blog/2006/09/europe_commuting_faster_in_sub" eudora="autourl"> http://www.fromtheheartland.org/blog/2006/09/europe_commuting_faster_in_sub</a> . php#more Data:<a href="http://www.publicpurpose.com/ut-eu15-jtwtime2001.htm" eudora="autourl"> http://www.publicpurpose.com/ut-eu15-jtwtime2001.htm</a>   Europe: Commuting Faster in Suburbs than Cities There are few public policy issues more driven my myth than land use and the currently fashionable strategies of "smart growth" or "urban consolidation." Virtually all of the arguments made in support of smart growth's densification and land restriction policies melt away when subjected to the light of scrutiny. <<a href="http://www.demographia.com/dib-smg.htm" eudora="autourl"> http://www.demographia.com/dib-smg.htm</a>>  Now data shows that European work trip travel times for suburban residents are less than those of city residents, which is the opposite of claims by smart growth advocates. Further evidence of this is provided by an analysis of Western European work trip travel times. The anti-suburban smart growth theorists often suggest that cities should artificially constrained in their expansion because suburban areas put people farther away from their jobs and thus force people to spend more time traveling to work. Estimates based upon data from the European Union Urban Audit indicates that commutes by suburban residents are faster than commutes by city (core) residents <<a href="http://www.publicpurpose.com/ut-eu15-jtwtime2001.htm" eudora="autourl"> http://www.publicpurpose.com/ut-eu15-jtwtime2001.htm</a>> . that the average work trip travel time for suburban residents is 23 minutes, one-way. This is five minutes less each way that the central city estimate of 28 minutes. Of course, the reasons that suburbanites can get to their jobs more quickly are that lower densities mean less traffic congestion (contrary to smart growth claims) and that jobs have followed people to the suburbs. Doubtless, urban planners who are more inclined to believe their conceptions than the data will be surprised that this improved jobs-housing balance has occurred with little or no direction from the planning profession. Land use policy needs to be based upon fact, rather than the myopic perceptions of a small urban elite. The data could not be more clear. Smart growth --- the compact city --- means more traffic congestion, more intense air pollution and longer travel times. This, of course, is just the beginning. Smart growth also means significantly reduced housing affordability <<a href="http://www.demographia.com/dhi-ix2005q3.pdf" eudora="autourl"> http://www.demographia.com/dhi-ix2005q3.pdf</a>> , a redistribution of wealth from lower and middle income households to the more affluent and, as a result, the likelihood of future greater poverty and less economic growth. -- Wendell Cox Demographia | Wendell Cox Consultancy - St. Louis Missouri-Illinois metropolitan region Visiting Professor, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris +1.618.632.8507 | +33.6.10.59.59.92 <a href="http://www.demographia.com" eudora="autourl"> www.demographia.com</a> | <a href="http://www.publicpurpose.com" eudora="autourl"> www.publicpurpose.com</a> | <a href="http://www.rentalcartours.net" eudora="autourl"> www.rentalcartours.net</a> "Absent a material threat to other individuals or the community, people should be allowed to live and work where and how they like." -Lone Mountain Compact -------------------------------------------------------- IMPORTANT NOTE to everyone who gets sustran-discuss messages via YAHOOGROUPS. Please go to <a href="http://list.jca.apc.org/manage/listinfo/sustran-discuss" eudora="autourl"> http://list.jca.apc.org/manage/listinfo/sustran-discuss</a> to join the real sustran-discuss and get full membership rights. The yahoogroups version is only a mirror and 'members' there cannot post to the real sustran-discuss (even if the yahoogroups site makes it seem like you can). Apologies for the confusing arrangement. ================================================================ SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred, equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries (the 'Global South'). </blockquote> <x-sigsep></x-sigsep> Sincerely, Todd Alexander Litman Victoria Transport Policy Institute (<a href="http://www.vtpi.org" eudora="autourl">www.vtpi.org</a>) litman@vtpi.org Phone & Fax 250-360-1560 1250 Rudlin Street, Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, CANADA “Efficiency - Equity - Clarity”   </body> </html>