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<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=4 color="#003399" face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#003399;font-weight:bold'>Metro Rails:
where’s the money? </span></font></b></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><font size=3 color="#993300" face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#993300;font-weight:bold;font-style:italic'>Bus
Rapid Transit makes more <a
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onmouseout="adlinkMouseOut(event,this,0);"><span class=klink><span
style='text-decoration:none'>financial</span></span></a> sense as an urban
transport system</span></font></i></b></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 color="#cc6600" face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#CC6600;font-weight:bold'><a
href="http://www.financialexpress.com/about/feedback.html" VSJrA=0 YtY3J=0><font
color="#cc6600"><span style='color:#CC6600'>RAMESH RAMANATHAN</span></font></a></span></font></b></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=1 color="#999999" face=Verdana VSJrA=0 YtY3J=0><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#999999'>Posted online: </span></font><font size=1 color="#999999" face=Verdana><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#999999'>Tuesday, August 08, 2006</span></font><font size=1
color="#999999" face=Verdana><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#999999'> at 0000 hours IST</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=1 face=Arial><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=136535</span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:12.0pt'><b><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;font-weight:bold'> </span></font></b><font
size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>E
Sreedharan</span></font><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>, the driving force behind the Delhi Metro, is a
living legend—a remarkable engineer. He delivered the Delhi Metro on
time, within cost, and as a example of how public infrastructure ought to be
built. In a country parched for projects that move from conception to
delivery with no glitches, he is a shining example of how to do it right. </span></font></p>
<p style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Unfortunately, Sreedharan is not
a magician. No matter what he does, he can’t make the Delhi
Metro’s financials work, because the numbers don’t add up. </span></font></p>
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<p style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Phase 1 cost Rs 10,000 crore for
64 km — a whopping Rs 150 crore/km. With 66% debt financing, interest
cost at 8% works out to Rs 550 crore p.a. And principal repayment would be Rs
500-600 crore p.a., assuming a 10-15 year repayment period. </span></font></p>
<p style='line-height:12.0pt' VSJrA=0 YtY3J=0><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Where are the revenues coming
from? Last year, the Metro had operating revenues (i.e. from passengers) of Rs
113 crore. Operating expenditures were Rs 102 crore, leaving barely Rs 10 crore
as surplus before interest. And one other painful item: depreciation. When
you build a Rs 10,000crore asset, depreciation can really start hurting. This
was Rs 200 crore last year, but will balloon . Which means that the Metro is
suffering massive losses, even before interest expenses, forget principal
repayment. There is no way the Delhi Metro can generate surpluses. Ever. </span></font></p>
<p style='line-height:12.0pt' VSJrA=0 YtY3J=0><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;background:yellow'>The only
solution to this fiscal problem is to find alternative sources of <a
href="http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=136535"
target="_new" oncontextmenu="return false;" id=KonaLink1
onmouseover="adlinkMouseOver(event,this,1);" style='text-decoration:underline! important'
onclick="adlinkMouseClick(event,this,1);"
onmouseout="adlinkMouseOut(event,this,1);"><span class=klink><span
style='text-decoration:none'>financing</span></span></a>,</span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'> which is what Delhi Metro has
done. They are now developing real estate—a six-hectare property at </span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'>Shastri</span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'> </span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'>Park</span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'>, 93 acre at </span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'>Khyber Pass</span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'>, etc. Last year, one-time
income from real estate came to Rs 300 crore, almost three times that which
the Delhi Metro was originally set up for, mass transit. The reality: Metro
Rail projects are financial white elephants. </span></font></p>
<p style='line-height:12.0pt' VSJrA=0 YtY3J=0><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;background:yellow'>Who is <a
href="http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=136535"
target="_new" oncontextmenu="return false;" id=KonaLink2
onmouseover="adlinkMouseOver(event,this,2);" style='text-decoration:underline! important'
onclick="adlinkMouseClick(event,this,2);"
onmouseout="adlinkMouseOut(event,this,2);"><span class=klink><span
style='text-decoration:none'>lending</span></span></a> to Metro projects?</span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'> The biggest — and,
possibly, only — lender so far has been the Japan Bank for
International Cooperation (JBIC). They financed Delhi Metro over Rs 4,000 crore,
and have completed due diligence on phase 2 — debt of another Rs 4,000 crore.
<span style='background:yellow'>There is no public data available on JBIC’s
rationale for lending to Metro projects</span>. </span></font></p>
<p style='line-height:12.0pt' VSJrA=0 YtY3J=0><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;background:yellow'>Strangely,
just as the financial hole of Delhi Metro is increasing, the Metro bandwagon
is moving across the country. </span></font><font face=Verdana><span
style='font-family:Verdana;background:yellow'>Bangalore</span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana;background:yellow'> has just
launched its Metro project,</span></font><font face=Verdana><span
style='font-family:Verdana'> Mumbai followed suit a month later, </span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'>Hyderabad</span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'> and Chennai are busy
preparing detailed project reports. <span style='background:yellow'>If the
numbers are so bad, why are cities interested in these projects?</span> </span></font></p>
<p style='line-height:12.0pt' VSJrA=0 YtY3J=0><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Actually, it is not the city
governments that get to decide (topic for another debate) but their state
governments. There are a number of reasons. Urban testosterone for one;
metros have become a status symbol. But there are many other factors at play,
which make the Metro lobby a force to reckon with. A World Bank report on
urban transport in </span></font><font face=Verdana><span style='font-family:
Verdana'>India</span></font><font face=Verdana><span style='font-family:
Verdana'> states that our urban transport approach is “supply-oriented,
and traffic growth-biased. It conflicts with the principles outlined in the
government urban transport policy statement in a number of ways. </span></font></p>
<p style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>In the short term, it neglects
the mobility of low-income and poor travelers, especially the non-motorised
one..(and) ..favors the most capital-intensive public transport modes (metros
and other urban railways) which may not be warranted by either traffic
density and passengers’ ability to pay, or their budget capacity to pay
subsidies in perpetuity.” </span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><b><font size=2
color=white face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:white;font-weight:bold'>Quick Take</span></font></b></p>
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<p><font size=2 color="#006699" face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:#006699'>•</span></font><font face=Verdana><span
style='font-family:Verdana'> Delhi Metro is suffering huge losses. And no
way can it generate surpluses<br>
<font color="#006699"><span style='color:#006699'>•</span></font> The
only solution is to look for alternative sources<br>
of financing<br>
<font color="#006699"><span style='color:#006699'>•</span></font> A
Bus Rapid Transit system is possibly a more viable transport alternative</span></font></p>
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<p style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>What is preventing urban
transport alternatives from emerging in </span></font><font face=Verdana><span
style='font-family:Verdana'>India</span></font><font face=Verdana><span
style='font-family:Verdana'>? One key reason, indeed the first reason, <span
style='background:yellow'>the World Bank report suggests is that these
alternative proposals run counter to “the formidable urban rail
lobby”, among others.</span> </span></font></p>
<p style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>But are there alternatives?
Clearly, we need mass transport systems in our cities — private cars
and two-wheelers are already choking the streets, and barely provide 20% of
the total travel needs even today. One possible alternative is
Bus-Rapid-Transit (BRT). Across the world, there is increasing support for
BRTs. Remarkable scaled up solutions have emerged, none better than in </span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'>Bogota</span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'> and </span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'>Curitiba</span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'> in </span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'>South America</span></font><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'>. </span></font></p>
<p style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>A report prepared by Seema Parekh
,et al for ‘India Urban Space’, a conference on challenges in
urban India, states: “Bogota today boasts of a world-class Bus Rapid
Transit system of dedicated bus lanes called TransMilenio; Latin
America’s largest network of bicycle ways called ciclo-rutas 150 miles
long; world’s longest pedestrian-only street spanning 10.2 miles, hundreds
of miles of sidewalks many through the city’s poorest neighborhoods;
and the world’s biggest Car-Free Day (dia sin carro), during which
private vehicles are not allowed to enter the entire city of 135 square
miles.” </span></font></p>
<p style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Importantly, from a financial standpoint,
the infrastructure was built at a cost of about $5.3 million per km (Rs 20 crore,
or one-sixth of Delhi Metro). As a result, “TransMilenio requires no
operating subsidies and earns substantial profits for its operators.” </span></font></p>
<p style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>BRT systems make more financial
sense than Metros. Ahmedabad seems to think so — it is the first Indian
city to go for BRT. Jaipur, </span></font><font face=Verdana><span
style='font-family:Verdana'>Indore</span></font><font face=Verdana><span
style='font-family:Verdana'> and others are also moving in this direction. An
alternative is emerging. </span></font></p>
<p style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Beyond finances, any urban
transport system fundamentally defines the destiny of a city for decades,
just by virtue of its impact. It is critical, therefore, that these decisions
be integrated into an overall plan. </span></font></p>
<p style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Swati Ramanathan of Janaagraha
says: “Introducing any rapid transit system without developing a Master
Plan with integrated transport as a component is like putting the cart before
the horse.” </span></font></p>
<p style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Most public policy decisions are
like icebergs. Urban transport choices are no different. For those who want
to improve the quality of the public debate on this issue, the Achilles heel
of Metro Rail systems is their finances. Sorry, Mr Sreedharan-–I still
think you are great engineer. </span></font></p>
<p style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>—<i><span
style='font-style:italic'>The writer is founder of Janaagraha,which aims at
reforms in urban governance </span></i></span></font></p>
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