[sustran] VTPI News - Spring 2018

[Todd Litman]

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                 VTPI NEWS

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              Victoria Transport Policy Institute

              "Efficiency - Equity - Clarity"

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              Spring 2018    Vol. 18, No. 2

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The Victoria Transport Policy Institute is an independent research
organization dedicated to developing innovative solutions to transportation
problems. The VTPI website (www.vtpi.org ) has many resources addressing a
wide range of transport planning and policy issues. VTPI also provides
consulting services.

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NEW VTPI REPORTS

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"True Affordability: Critiquing the International Housing Affordability
Survey" (http://www.vtpi.org/ihasc.pdf ). Most lower- and moderate-income
households spend more on housing and transportation than considered
affordable. This harms families and communities. As a result, there is
considerable interest in methods for understanding unaffordability problems
and evaluate potential solutions. The Demographia International Housing
Affordability Survey (IHAS) rates regional housing affordability using
Median Multiples (the ratio of median house prices to wages), and uses the
results to advocate for urban expansion. It is heavily promoted and receives
significant media attention. This study critically evaluates the IHAS
methods and recommendations. It identifies significant problems. The
Survey's analysis methods exaggerate the affordability of urban-fringe
housing, and the unaffordability of compact urban infill. It blames housing
unaffordability on urban containment regulations although they are uncommon
and less costly than regulations limiting affordable infill. It ignores many
sprawl costs and Smart Growth benefits. The IHAS fails to reflect
professional standards: its analysis methods do not reflect current best
practices; it misrepresents key research, is not transparent, and lacks peer
review. This critique indicates that the IHAS is propaganda, intended to
support a political agenda rather than provide objective guidance. Although
the IHAS information may be useful, it is important that users understand
its biases.

 

This report received considerable media coverage:

"Affordability is Not a Zero-sum Game: A new report offers a vision for
optimal urban growth for affordability and livability"
(https://bit.ly/2HJU64b ), Public Square, Congress for New Urbanism.

"True Affordability: Critiquing the International Housing Affordability
Survey" (http://ow.ly/Jpju30jgyOb ), The World Resources Institute's "City
Fix."

"Urban Sprawl Is Not More Affordable: Influential Housing Report Supporting
Suburban Expansion is Little More than Propaganda" (https://bit.ly/2G0lzyx
), The Tyee Magazine.

"Sprawl vs. Density Showdown: What's Better for Cities? The Media Goes Wild
for Demographia's Annual Housing Affordability Survey, but Critics Abound"
(https://bit.ly/2Fh5SxA ), Star Metro Vancouver.  

 

"Pay-As-You-Drive Insurance in BC Backgrounder"
(http://vtpi.org/PAYD_BC_Backgrounder ). Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD) pricing is
the best transportation policy reform that you've probably never heard of!

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PUBLISHED & PRESENTED ELSEWHERE

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"Mobility and Innovation. The New Transportation Paradigm"
(http://bit.ly/2Dravbo ). Todd Litman contributed this chapter to this
beautiful and inspiring new book, "S.M.A.R.T. - Paths to Sustainability"
(bit.ly/2mUs2iG ), in which 34 authors and photographers from five
continents give their views on aspects of sustainable development. 

 

"A New Traffic Safety Paradigm" (https://bit.ly/2HPxoax ). This article for
the Canadian Association of Road Safety Professionals (
<https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.carsp.ca%2F&h=ATPY4pAiIaQIp
OKVY4aDvAjUKIYuWJY-IoyAgHIVrKbOb3drc0oPVHfZ3ChJzfdYDruf66qGojntkaH2GfUGaJ8bR
BdPH8x23pqeOqzovY52UmS6_PMTgbHe4cxej14YqQA> http://www.carsp.ca ) summarizes
our research (www.vtpi.org/ntsp ) concerning how transportation and land use
planning decisions affect traffic risks, and how this information can be
applied to create safer communities.

 

"A New Traffic Safety Paradigm" (https://bit.ly/2Febrwx ), Transportation
Talk (the Journal of the Canadian Institute of Transportation Engineers).

 

"Automated Vehicles: The Coming of the Next Disruptive Technology"
(https://bit.ly/2dkBzMa ) by the Conference Board of Canada cites our
report, "Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Projections"
(http://www.vtpi.org/avip ). It states, "For those who argue that the switch
over to AVs from the existing human-driven fleet will take many decades, it
is worth noting that it took about a dozen years for New York to switch from
'horse power to horsepower'". In response we added Exhibit 10, which shows
U.S. per capita vehicle ownership trends during the last century. Although
mass automobile production started in 1908, only after the 1960s did most
potential drivers own a personal vehicle, and only after 1980 did ownership
approach saturation. This indicates that, although a new transport
technology can be introduced quickly in a few locations, broad deployment
generally takes decades and saturation more than a half-century.

 

"Driving Change: Technology and the Future of the Automated Vehicle"
(http://bit.ly/2GwHvO2 ), by the Canadian Standing Senate Committee on
Transport and Communications, provides comprehensive and objective analysis
of autonomous vehicle benefits and costs, based, in part, on our research.
Also see, "When Will Autonomous Vehicles Become a Reality and How Will They
Really Be Used?" (http://bit.ly/2E70L7t ) in the automotive magazine Torque
News. 

 

"3 Policy Fixes That Could Dramatically Reduce Transportation Emissions"
(https://bit.ly/2B6MK7v ) by Angie Schmitt, and "The Clean Power Plan is on
Life Support, but Screw it, Let's Create One for Transportation"
(https://bit.ly/2HS1TNh ) by Tim Kovach. These columns are based on the
report "Comparing Greenhouse Gas Reductions and Legal Implementation
Possibilities for Pay-to-Save Transportation Price-shifting Strategies and
EPA's Clean Power Plan" (http://www.vtpi.org/G&E_GHG.pdf ), by Allen
Greenberg and John (Jay) Evans, which investigates the potential greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions reduction impacts and benefits of a set of innovative,
revenue-neutral transportation pricing reforms including
pay-as-you-drive-and-you-save vehicle insurance, parking cash out, and the
conversion of fixed state and local vehicle sales taxes into mileage-based
taxes. These would give travelers significant financial incentives to reduce
their annual mileage and provide various benefits. This report identifies
practical ways to implement these strategies.

 

"Surge Pricing Can Help Traffic, But Paying Can be Painful"
(https://bit.ly/2Kh3pHc ). This Canadian Broadcast Corporation (CBC) SPARK
radio program interview concerns toll road "surge pricing" (i.e. "congestion
pricing"). As Todd Litman describes, 'You're either paying with money, or
with time,' when it comes to travelling to an urban destination. Paying with
money through congestion pricing is appropriate when you are in a hurry,
paying with time, by sitting in congestion or using public transit is
appropriate when you are not. To maximize efficiency, both options should be
available. Rational drivers should be protesting at city hall in support of
congestion pricing and public transit investments. Also see Wired
Magazine's, "Virginia's $40 Toll Road Better Be the Future of Driving"
(https://bit.ly/2Kf9e86 ), which also quotes Todd Litman concerning
congestion pricing merits. 

 

"If Americans Paid for the Parking We Consume, We'd Drive 500 Billion Fewer
Miles Each Year" (https://bit.ly/2HuXj4e ). This column by Angie Schmitt
summarizes Todd Litman's report, "Socially Optimal Transport Prices and
Markets" (http://www.vtpi.org/sotpm.pdf ) which models the impacts of
efficient transport pricing and planning.

 

 

Recent Planetizen Blogs (www.planetizen.com/blog/2394 ):

 

"Autonomous Vehicle Reality" (https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/97927 ).
Planners must be realistic. Autonomous vehicles will probably provide
smaller net benefits, including safety benefits, than optimists predict.

 

"True Affordability: Critiquing the International Housing Affordability
Survey" (https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/97706 ). The International Housing
Affordability Survey is biased in ways that make urban-fringe housing seem
more affordable and infill seem less affordable. Anybody who uses this
analysis should be warned.

 

"Fun Parking Facts" (https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/96957 ). Parking
requirements are the dark matter of the urban universe: they affect
transport and land use in mysterious ways. These fun facts illustrate the
costs and impacts of economically excessive parking supply.

 

"A New Traffic Safety Paradigm" (https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/96324 ).
Despite numerous traffic safety programs, traffic death rates have not
declined in a decade and recently started to increase. We can do better! A
new paradigm identifies additional safety strategies that reduce both crash
rates and risk exposure.

 

"Public Transportation Provides a Vital Mobility Link in Rural and Small
Towns" (https://www.planetizen.com/news/2017/10/95487 ). A new report
describes the important roles that public transit plays in rural communities
and small towns, current demographic and economic trends that are increasing
these demands, and examples of successful rural transit development
programs.

 

Let's be friends. Todd Litman regularly posts on his Facebook page
(www.facebook.com/todd.litman ). Befriend him now!

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UPCOMING EVENTS

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"Economics of Walkability. How improving walking conditions can help
communities achieve their strategic development goals"
(https://bit.ly/1ttJv24 ), Simon Fraser University Next-Generation
Transportation Webinar Series.  Improving walking conditions, increasing
walking activity, and creating more compact, walkable communities can
provide significant and diverse benefits to residents, businesses and
communities. Many of these benefits tend to be overlooked or undervalued in
conventional transport planning. This webinar will explore these impacts,
and how to communicate walkability benefits to decision-makers and the
general public. 

 

"Sustainable Aviation Symposium" (https://bit.ly/2KdXkek ), 11-12 May 2018,
San Francisco. Todd Litman will discuss factors to consider when evaluating
innovative transportation options such as electric air taxis.

 

"Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions - Implications for Transport
Planning" (https://bit.ly/2HZdJmp ), keynote presentation, Transport Summit
DTU, 31 May, Denmark.

"The New Traffic Safety Paradigm" (https://bit.ly/2qYoEWd ), keynote
presentation, at the Canadian Association of Traffic Safety Professionals
Annual Meeting, June 11, Victoria. 

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BEEN THERE, DONE THAT

=======================

"Planning for Autonomous Vehicles"
(http://www.vtpi.org/AV_Litman_Presentation.pdf ), Victoria Canadian
Institute of Transportation Engineers, 24 January 2018, Victoria.

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USEFUL RESOURCES

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"The Economic Benefits of Vehicle Miles Traveled Reducing Placemaking:
Synthesizing a New View" (https://bit.ly/2IIxePm ). This report analyzes
evidence on the economic benefits of placemaking efforts that prioritize
pedestrian and non-motorized access and help reduce vehicle travel. It finds
evidence of economic benefits on commercial and residential property values,
business activity and economic productivity. 

 

"Sustainable and Safe: A Vision and Guidance for Zero Road Deaths"
(https://bit.ly/2D0mPzj ), by the World Resources Institute. This analysis
of 53 countries found that those that apply "Safe System" approaches to
transport and urban design achieve the lowest rates of fatalities per
100,000 inhabitants and the greatest reduction in fatality rates during the
past two decades. 

 

"Intersecting Residential and Transportation CO2 Emissions: Metropolitan
Climate Change Programs in the Age of Trump" (https://bit.ly/2HZzAtH ), by
John D. Landis, David Hsu and Erick Guerra. This Journal of Planning
Education and Research article explores the potential for local policies to
reduce carbon emissions in eleven representative US metropolitan areas. It
estimates that residential energy conservation mandates could reduce 2030
home emissions by an average of 30% over 2010 levels, and policies that
encourage compact development and mode shifts could reduce transport
emissions by 25% during the same period. 

 

"Elements of Access: Transport Planning for Engineers, Transport Engineering
for Planners"

(https://bit.ly/2HxfB4U ). This new book by Professor David M. Levinson can
help transport engineers and planners better understand the diverse aspects
of accessibility, and communicate these concepts to the public.

 

"Global Initiative for Child Health & Mobility"
(www.childhealthinitiative.org ) is a partnership working to ensure that
every child can enjoy a safe and healthy journey. It produced the report,
"Every Journey. Every Child" (https://bit.ly/2HrSzA7 ).

 

"Building Sustainable Mobility for Women" (https://bit.ly/2HPegth ) examines
women's public transport experience in cities in South Africa, Ecuador,
Argentina and Chile. The associated 'Ella se mueve segura' ('Women move
safely') (https://bit.ly/2FMlhHv ) project provides guidance for improving
public transport personal security for women. 

 

"MaaS Maturity Index" (www.maaslab.org/maasindex ) assesses the readiness of
metropolitan areas for the implementation of Mobility as a Service (MaaS),
taking into account various characteristics which affect the likelihood of
successful implementation. 

 

"San Francisco TDM Tool" (www.sftdmtool.org ) and "Step-by-Step Instructions
for Creating a TDM Plan" (https://bit.ly/2qXvVFG ), provide detailed
guidance for transport planners and engineers, developers and building
managers to encourage more efficient transportation in various conditions.

 

"Commute Mode Diversity and Income Inequality: An Inter-Urban Analysis of
148 Midsize US Cities" (https://bit.ly/2HxzmJe ). This new article by
Frederick and Gilderbloom finds that increased commute mode diversity (lower
automobile mode share) is associated with more income equality, and with
higher home property values and affordable rental markets compared to
automobile dependent cities.

 

"The Science Is In: The Healthiest Neighborhoods are both Walkable and
Green" Placemakers (https://bit.ly/2Jr5Pli ), by Kaid Benfield. 

 

"The (New) Bus Rapid Transit Planning Guide" (https://brtguide.itdp.org )
provides even more information on how to develop more efficient bus systems.


 

"MobilityScore" (https://transitscreen.com/mobilityscore ) is an easy-to-use
rating system that gives a score from 1-100 of a location's local mobility
services, including public transit to carsharing, bikesharing, and hailed
ridesharing. 

 

"Street Mobility Project" (www.ucl.ac.uk/street-mobility ) by the University
College London, is a practical tools for measuring community severance and
overcoming barriers to walking.

 

"Implementing Context-Sensitive Design on Multimodal Corridors: A
Practitioner's Handbook" (https://bit.ly/2JteKCP ). This handbook
illustrates best practices for creating walkable mixed-use streets. 

 

"Pedestrians First, Tools For a Walkable City" (https://bit.ly/2HSbN1p )
provides guidance for evaluating walking conditions and improving urban
walkability. 

 

"The Value of Slow Travel: An Econometric Method for Valuing the User
Benefits of Active Transport Infrastructure" (https://bit.ly/2EkA0Ym ). This
dissertation by Christopher Standen used economic modeling to evaluate the
direct user benefits (welfare gains) from bicycle facility improvements that
increase bicycling activity. He points out that, although walking and
bicycling are often slower than driving, users who shift mode in response to
facility improvements must benefit overall, reflecting lower travel time
unit costs.

 

"Landlords in Seattle Can't Force Renters to Pay for Parking Anymore"
(https://bit.ly/2KcxyqW ) Street Blog. The Seattle City Council has approved
a substantial package of parking reforms that aims to make housing more
affordable and reduce dependence on driving, including a new rule that
prevents landlords of buildings with more than 10 apartments from bundling
parking (automatically including it with rent).

 

"Ending the Search for Parking" (https://bit.ly/2q6uTWD ), by Angela DeLuca.
Current travel trends, including more walking, bicycling, ridehailing,
carsharing and public transit travel are reducing parking demand in many
urban areas.

 

"Automated Vehicles Can't Save Cities" (https://nyti.ms/2CqQSAb ) describes
problems that autonomous vehicles may cause in urban areas. The "Shared
Mobility Principles" (https://www.sharedmobilityprinciples.org ) describes
ways to encourage efficient transport.

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Please let us know if you have comments or questions about any information
in this newsletter, or if you would like to be removed from our email list.
And please pass this newsletter on to others who may find it useful.

 

Sincerely,

Todd Litman (litman at vtpi.org)

Victoria Transport Policy Institute (www.vtpi.org)

Office: 250-360-1560 | Mobile: 250-508-5150

1250 Rudlin Street, Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, CANADA

     Efficiency - Equity - Clarity