[sustran] Re: Infrastructure Oversupply

[ashok datar]

glad u have touched upon a basic issue about whether we should have so much
transport infra structure as Chinese are finding out
we have advantage of learning from them and we should use it
I believe some basic restraint is needed everywehre when we discuss the
sustainability
in particular, by too many highways we creat avoidable transportation .. why
we should we be eating Chines apples, NZ pears, Australian kiwis etc. the
energy that is spent in transportation and storage undermines the basic law
of nature
let us think more local
can we also show preference for rail network rather than road or air as it
is less energy using ?
ashok datar

On Wed, Sep 21, 2011 at 9:08 AM, Sudhir <sudhir at cai-asia.org> wrote:

> Unfortunately.. other countries are also pushing the same agenda in
> intercity transport. Massive highways are being built across Asia. India is
> trying hard to build 20km a day of intercity national highways and the
> impact of such intercity highways are huge and we need to look more
> actively
> at intercity solutions.
>
> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904060604576570084262352852.html
> and
> see
>
> http://www.livemint.com/2011/06/17150418/India-eyes-record-road-network.html
>
> September 14 (The Wall Street Journal): Lu Dadao has long warned about the
> risks of highway, railway and airport overbuilding in China. Now people are
> listening.
> ons.
> The 71-year-old Mr. Lu, president of Geographical Society of China, is
> China's leading economic geographer and a member of the state-run Chinese
> Academy of Sciences. He headed a team of government researchers that last
> year issued a report criticizing the nation's vast transportation-building
> program for excessive investment.
>
> He says he "faced great pressure" from officials unhappy with the report.
> But attitudes toward the infrastructure boom have shifted somewhat since
> the
> July 23 collision of two high-speed trains near Wenzhou that killed 40
> people.
>
> Mr. Lu spoke with Yue Zhen, a reporter for Caixin Media, a business and
> financial media group in China. Excerpts:
>
> Caixin: What's the status of China's transportation initiative?
>
> Lu Dadao: It's mainly about excessively big, redundant construction and
> unfair competition, as well as a lack of coordination between different
> modes of transport.
>
> First, look at expressway construction. In 2008, the nationwide total
> mileage plan was adjusted up to 100,000 kilometers. That year alone we
> built
> 6,433 kilometers and invested a total of 600 billion yuan ($93.79 billion).
> Nationwide expressway mileage is expected to grow to a staggering 180,000
> kilometers, if we add provincial and national building plans.
>
> Personal vehicle traffic levels are too low on some expressways built over
> the past five years. Considerable stretches of expressway completed in
> central and western regions are usually empty, simply basking in the sun.
> Thus, expressway construction has suffered from excessive expansion. It's
> gotten out of control.
>
> Second, overexpansion of coastal-port development and construction has
> clearly led to excessive competition between ports. China's port throughput
> capacity reached four billion tons in 2008, yet coastal communities
> continue
> to compete in the race to build large-scale berth and shipping-container
> ports. Every port authority makes lofty claims about becoming a coastal or
> international hub for commercial shipping.
>
> Additionally, many regional airports are being built blindly, with huge
> investments but no feasibility studies. This has led to major losses. In
> 2008, national subsidies to small and medium-size airports reached 9.3
> billion yuan ($1.45 billion). But by 2020, we'll have added another 100 or
> so airports, mainly regional airports. Every year recently, construction
> has
> begun on about 20 regional airports, and more are waiting to be approved.
>
> Moreover, there's been a surging wave of railway-construction projects,
> including intercity rail linking big cities, suburbs and small cities in
> some provinces, regions and municipalities. Our research group found there
> will not be enough traffic to support the big, city-centered railway
> transportation systems after they are completed.
>
> Caixin: But supply sometimes still can't meet demand. For example, during
> the Chinese New Year, railway tickets are extremely hard to get.
>
> Lu: This relates to the problem of current demand versus long-term demand.
> Over the past few years, some medium- and long-term plans drafted by
> national and regional authorities have touched on the long term. But in
> terms of implementation in recent years, many projects have been running
> far
> in advance of demand.
>
> In fact, most of our medium- and long-term plans are very backward because
> they do not take into account the regional particularities of
> passenger-traffic concentration. In provinces that are exporting manpower,
> transportation planning and construction can't keep up.
>
> The future national framework transportation plan should be built on
> analyzing and forecasting traffic volume and direction. Too many highways
> have complicated socioeconomic systems in regions along their paths,
> fragmented the land and even destroyed socioeconomic ties. In a sense,
> expressways benefit the rich. There is no country like ours that builds
> expressways between every county, that violates the development pace of
> transportation systems and that skips stages of societal development.
>
> Currently, China's expressway network accounts for 1.62% of total road
> network mileage, which is higher than in either Europe or America. In
> eastern regions, the expressway ratio is as high as 2.4%, and in the west
> it
> has reached 1.16%. This sort of road network clearly reflects one fact:
> Expressways, which play a backbone transportation role, are mismatched
> against other kinds of roads. The total expressway length is too great. A
> reasonable expressway mileage ratio is around 1.2%.
>
> Caixin: Profit-driven but unrealistic "leapfrog" development has been
> widely
> mentioned in official documents. Is the pursuit of GDP growth and
> performance stars for government officials driving the transportation
> campaign?
>
> Lu: Of course. Some local leaders think a big highway investment will play
> a
> large role in boosting the local economy. The search for profit and returns
> on short-term investment is prominent. Wild enthusiasm among local
> governments for transportation development often forces central government
> plans to be adapted to local plans. Plans for some local government
> transportation networks may be redone after new leaders are appointed.
>
> In addition, the limitations of current management authority have led to
> fragmentation among various modes of transport, which relevant government
> departments have a hard time coordinating.
>
> Caixin: How should we prepare for the next stage of
> transport-infrastructure
> construction?
>
> Lu: There should be three areas of focus. First, optimize the
> transportation
> composition by rationally planning the density and composition of
> transportation networks in different regions, based on differences in
> population and economic density.
>
> Second, enhance the efficiency of the overall transportation system and
> promote integrated transport development. The basic concept should be that
> highways are for short-distance transport and railways for long-distance,
> while aviation is for long-range and ultra-long-range transport. At the
> same
> time, this effort should be consistent with passenger- and cargo-flow
> direction and growth forecasts.
>
> Third, accelerate construction of the primary road network in rural and
> farm
> areas. Particular attention should be paid to adjusting the scale of
> transportation-construction investment. With regard to the scale in recent
> years and problems with excessive expansion in recent years, we recommend
> holding transportation investment at 3% to 4% of GDP after the period of
> the
> 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-16).
>
> Caixin: After the Wenzhou train crash, everyone has been concerned about
> the
> next step for high-speed rail. What kind of plan should high-speed rail
> construction follow?
>
> Lu: Our view is that high-speed-railway development in China has only
> begun.
> We still lack practical experience in safety and economic efficiency, as
> well as coordination with civil aviation and expressways, and we need to
> consolidate existing domestic and international experience.
>
> Internationally, the rational operating range for a high-speed railway is
> considered to be between 180 and 800 kilometers. On either end of this
> range
> are the operating ranges of expressways and aviation, respectively.
>
> Caixin: There is a lot of talk about reforming various government
> departments. How do you see relations between transport authorities and
> other institutions?
>
> Lu: Transport-related departments are currently too strong. Each has its
> own
> strong planning and design institutions. But authorities in charge of
> comprehensive coordination are too weak and cannot negate the plans of
> functioning departments, such as the transportation ministry.
>
> There is no overall coordination for transportation construction, and
> department goals are neither unified nor coordinated. In this atmosphere,
> enthusiasm is stoked inside various departments, and the result is that
> each
> department launches individual, large-scale projects that greatly increase
> the overall scale and contribute to imbalance in the transport structure.
>
> Thus, in the next phase of transportation planning, the National
> Development
> and Reform Commission, as a comprehensive coordination department, must
> bravely say "yes" or "no," and speak honestly, particularly when saying
> "no."
>
> In addition, the government should, through public hearings and other
> methods, continue listening to people's views when planning projects. There
> must be a mechanism that gradually establishes a platform for people to
> participate and speak their minds.
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-- 
Ashok R.Datar
Mumbai Environmental Social Network
20 Madhavi, Makarand Society, S.V.S.Marg, Mahim-400 016
98676 65107/0222 444 9212 see our website : www.mesn.org

* I hear, then I forget.  I see, then I remember. I do, then I understand.*