[sustran] Beijing to limit issuance of new car plates. Proposed strategy: Declare victory and move on.

[eric britton]

Subject: Beijing to limit issuance of new car plates. Proposed strategy:
Declare victory and move on. 

 

Your point is excellent Chris, and I would with all due respect take it a
bit further.

 

The good news is that the Beijing authorities recognize that they are
sitting on a time bomb and have shown themselves ready to deal with it.
Their readiness to act is admirable and exemplary. As is their decision to
look for an innovative way to get the job done. A Shanghai-level  PISA A+
for their creative initiative. 

 

The less good news is that this particular approach is almost certainly not
the best one for the job, not least because they have chosen to opt for a
policy measure that has been tried in other places and situation and which
has always led to the problems that you outline.  And yet others.

 

Here's my point. I would very much like to think that we might be able to do
our part to help them move beyond this to a more appropriate multi-level
approach (needed when you are confronted with a multi-level problem such as
this). Also, and this is extremely important, it is vital that whatever
initiatives that they take will actually work as envisaged and announced.
This is a new approach for them, -- and for many other cities in the world
-- and so since Beijing is a world city, we want a world level success for
them. If they show the way, many many others will follow.

 

How to engage this dialogue?

 

Backup/Contingency Strategy:

I propose that they need is a backup strategy and this is something that I
think we can help them with. The fundamental idea is to save face and move
ahead with a next generation package of measured.

 

In this view of things, the strategy is to run the lottery for some limited
time (say two months) and then when they have taken a first bite out of the
problem (which they will with no doubt), to shift calmly and seamlessly to
another more effective approach. But it is important that this move is
preceded by a high profile pubic declaration of victory. 

 

The other measures which I am reading about sound right on target: Parking
controls and full-cost pricing are definitely part of the winning package.
The final package will leave Chinese citizens free to buy as many cars as
they wish. But NOT to use them in cities, unless they are ready to pay the
FULL COSTS involved. 

 

I am sure that we all wish them great good luck and await with real interest
the result of the program.

 

Eric Britton