[sustran] Re: personal rapid transit (PRT) news

[Steve Raney]

Carlos,

Consider brainstorming worst case outcomes for PRT and for other automated
technologies such as Google robocars. Imagining and describing worst case
outcomes can help prevent unintended negative consequences. For example, I
came across an "unintended consequences" brainstorm about Google robocars
from someone: "rich tech workers have a wifi-enabled robocar with a desk
inside the vehicle that serves as a productive mobile office, so they live
in vacation spots (Tahoe) and commute three hours at 90 mph to Google
Silicon Valley while working the whole way. Net energy use by rich commuters
goes up and social stratification increases."

As far as new PRT city designs. So far, what we've seen is
efficiency-improving, pedestrianization-increasing architectural
innovations: 
http://www.ultraprt.net/cms/index.php?page=architecture-innovations   , 
http://www.ultraprt.net/cms/index.php?page=cantilever   , 
pedestrian mall PRT:
http://www.ultraprt.net/cms/index.php?page=culvert-cut-cover-w-glass   , 
http://www.ultraprt.net/cms/index.php?page=stations-inside-buildings   .

For PRT as a last mile solution, the outcome envisioned is pretty benign, in
that the last mile problem is something that the planning community has been
attempting to solve for years, in order to increase utilization of commute
alternatives. See Calthorpe's arguments to that effect:
http://www.ultraprt.net/cms/index.php?page=rave-reviews . The last mile
problem is a TODAY problem.  To me, last mile solutions can help bring about
a suburban green transformation:  

Title: Efficient Edge Cities of the Future
ABSTRACT: A "story-format" roadmap is provided to reduce edge city
per-capita energy consumption by 50%. The roadmap provides an integrated
vision combining: multimodal transit, ridesharing, demand management, land
use, market forces, policy, technology, and paradigm re-thinking. Changing
away from an auto-centered, petroleum-based lifestyle represents a lifestyle
change, but not a sacrifice.
Web and GPS cell phones help create a "comprehensive new mobility" system to
make green transportation seamless and hassle-free. "Paid smart parking"
reduces solo commuting by 25%. "Low Miles residential communities" foster
green culture, where residents help each other to reduce carbon dioxide.
This green culture is created using the same powerful sociological marketing
principles that drive consumer society. Housing preference policies are used
to select new residents who will travel less and use green transportation.
Two-car families sell one car. As the real-estate gradually changes,
asphalt-dominated superblocks are transformed into walkable, New Urbanist
locales. Walking, biking, electric scooters, and Personal Rapid Transit
enable more than 50% of trips (commute, errands, recreation, etc.) to be
made without driving alone. Each of the nation's 200 35,000-employee edge
cities can be transformed into huge transit villages of two square miles or
more. Through this simple step-by-step plan, you'll save money, shed pounds,
meet neighbors, hang out in more lively places, and pay lower taxes. Housing
affordability, diversity, and un-housed-ness are grappled with. Full paper:
http://www.cities21.org/TRB_Efficient_Edge_Cities_4.pdf   

- Steve (Silicon Valley, California)

-----Original Message-----
From: Carlosfelipe Pardo [mailto:carlosfpardo at gmail.com] 
Sent: Saturday, August 27, 2011 8:31 AM
To: Steve Raney
Cc: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
Subject: Re: [sustran] personal rapid transit (PRT) news

The same quote of Sir Peter Hall would have been perfect for the car in the
beginning of the twentieth century. Thanks for sending it! In the case of
PRT, I am curious (maybe scared) to know what it is we can't yet see...

...shouldn't we solve Today before thinking about Tomorrow? I think there's
lots to be done, and Asimov-style thinking hasn't been particularly accurate
nor useful in the long run.

Carlos.