[sustran] IEA roadmap sees 27% biofuel use by 2050

[eric britton]

Dear Friends and Colleagues,


1.     What? Biofuels are back? Again? Help me! Is this just plain silly? Or
am I missing something important here?


2.     To my mind, this is absolutely insane and/or flagrantly irresponsible
meta-proposal.  It's a pure plant, a crafty public relations project
launched by people who want to put their hand into my pocket, and others who
pliantly announce that's OK.  


3.     Funding biofuels with taxpayer dollars? No more, no less that a
recurrent boondoggle, popping up the next time with a different set of
clothes but always the same ugly idea, i.e., taking scarce public money to
serve private interests.


4.     I see no reason for being "reasonable" in the face of these bad
recurrent ideas, which have at the base the purloining of hard earned
taxpayer money to create future profit opportunities for a sector (the
enterprise sector that is) whose job and raison d'être it is to be smart,
capable and figuring out how to make money now and in the future. They are
big guys and we the taxpayers and our public servants should not be holding
their hand.


5.     Moreover, I have  hard time understanding while a bunch of earnest
civil servants sitting around some kind of comfortable table in an
international capital can pretend that they have the competence to take such
positions. That's just silly. 


6.     Not one penny of taxpayer money should be spent in pushing, pulling,
whatever, alternative fuels. That is the domain and the expertise of the
private sector.


7.     The use of such words as "vision" and "incentivize" (I didn't even
know that was a word in proper English) and prhases making statements such
as ". . .  without adversely affecting food security or the environment" . .
Where do they get that from?


8.     The job of responsible governance is get the laws, prices and
enforcement right for a society that is sustainable and just. In this case
it means of course that we collectively are not doing this critical part of
our job – which requires full and fair energy pricing. 


9.     Get this right and you give clear price signals to the enterprise
sector which can then go away and figure out what they are supposed to do –
i.e., to find the products and services that will make them and their
stockholders rich in the future. That's what they are supposed to do. We
don't want them to "think green", unless it is in their interest to do so.
We want them to invent the iPad on their own dollar.  Without the help of
international committees.
 
When this planet goes down the drain, there will be a lot of really nice
reasonable people watching and wringing their hands.
 
Let's not be "reasonable people". Let's win this war.
 
Eric Britton
 
 
 
 

Sent: Thursday, 21 April, 2011 09:48
To: no-reply at cleanairinitiative.org
Subject: (From: Cornie Huizenga) IEA roadmap sees 27% biofuel use by 2050
 

IEA roadmap sees 27% biofuel use by 2050

Global biofuel production could be increased 14-fold by 2050 without
adversely affecting food security or the environment, according to a
technology roadmap published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on
Wednesday.

Biofuels – liquid and gaseous fuels derived from organic matter – can play
an important role in reducing CO2 emissions in the transport sector, and
ehancing energy security.

By 2050, biofuels could provide 27% of total transport fuel and contribute
in particular to the replacement of diesel, kerosene and jet fuel. The
projected use of biofuels could avoid around 2.1 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2
emissions per year when produced sustainably.

To meet this vision, most conventional biofuel technologies need to improve
conversion efficiency, cost and overall sustainability. In addition,
advanced biofuels need to be commercially deployed, which requires
substantial further investment in research, development and demonstration
(RD&D), and specific support for commercial-scale advanced biofuel plants.

Support policies should incentivise the most efficient biofuels in terms of
life-cycle greenhouse-gas performance, and be backed by a strong policy
framework which ensures that food security and biodiversity are not
compromised, and that social impacts are positive. This includes sustainable
land-use management and certification schemes, as well as support measures
that promote “low-risk” feedstocks and efficient processing technologies.

Meeting the biofuel demand in this roadmap would require around 65 exajoules
(EJ)1 of biofuel feedstock, occupying around 100 million hectares (Mha) in
2050. This poses a considerable challenge given competition for land and
feedstocks from rapidly growing demand for food and fibre, and for
additional 80 EJ1 of biomass for generating heat and power.2 However, with a
sound policy framework in place, it should be possible to provide the
required 145 EJ of total biomass for biofuels, heat and electricity from
residues and wastes, along with sustainably grown energy crops.

Trade in biomass and biofuels will become increasingly important to supply
biomass to areas with high production and/or consumption. 1) This is primary
energy content of the biomass feedstock before conversion to final energy.
2) A roadmap looking specifically at the use of bioenergy for heat and power
will be produced early in 2012.levels, and can help trigger investments and
mobilise biomass potentials in certain regions.

Scale and efficiency improvements will reduce biofuel production costs over
time. In a low-cost scenario, most biofuels could be competitive with fossil
fuels by 2030. In a scenario in which production costs are strongly coupled
to oil prices, they would remain slightly more expensive than fossil fuels.

While total biofuel production costs from 2010 to 2050 in this roadmap range
between USD 11 trillion to USD 13 trillion, the marginal savings or
additional costs compared to use of gasoline/diesel are in the range of only
+/-1% of total costs for all transport fuels.
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   Eric Britton
   Managing Director
   8, rue Jospeh Bara   75006 Paris France
   Tel. +331 7550 3788
   editor at worldstreets.org
   Skype: newmobility
 
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