[sustran] Re: Indian metros the 90-10 rule revisited

[Sujit Patwardhan]

4 October 2010


Dear Eric,

We have been having these discussions internally for some time and are going
to do an intensive brain-storming on under what conditions a Metro Rail
would have a positive impact on cities that are not overflowing with cash.

The reality with most cities in India (except Mumbai with a strong North
South corridor carrying very high numbers) is that over 75% of journeys are
shorter than 5 to 7 Kilometers. If we encourage or allow cities to grow
fast, adequate number of longer journeys may make the Metro Rail the ideal
mode but merely growth in city's population will not by itself justify a
Metro.

Another observation about Indian cities that are screaming for a Metro Rail
is the sad but real possibility that the major portion of a city's or
state's budget may get consumed by the cost of constructing and running the
Metro, leading to neglect and decline of other cheaper and modes of transit,
and this will hit the economically weaker sections of population the most.

I can see that several different modes of transit can have a role to play
but this needs to be established by data and analysis city by city. Today
this is not happening. Metro is a toy everyone wants but no one is ready to
pay the amount from their own pockets. Delhi has got its Metro and it is
losing heavily. To make up the losses, Delhi Metro is being offered real
estate incentives that may improve its bottom line but the price will be
paid by the residents of Delhi including the poorest sections who live hand
to mouth.
--
Sujit










On Mon, Oct 4, 2010 at 10:56 PM, <bruun at seas.upenn.edu> wrote:

>
> Sujit
>
> Why does there have to be only one high capacity mode for a given
> city? The best systems in the world
> have several modes. Do airlines use only one sized airplane? Do
> freight companies only use one size truck and only drive on one type
> of road?
>
> Also, this argument that building BRT on roads would be cheaper is, of
> course, true. But this isn't the issue.
> The first issue is that it often takes many years to get control of
> the roads. How much of the BRT system in Delhi got built while the
> Metro was under construction? The second issue is that the speed isn't
> as high for at grade BRT that must cross intersections (ROW B under
> Prof. Vuchic's terminology.) Speed actually is important for
> megacities -- the Metro and regional rail attract long trips, while
> BRT would get medium distance trips. This speed can both help to
> promote or control sprawl depending upon other development policies.
> So metros can positively influence urban form. The third is that
> Metros can indeed support poly-nucleated cities not just traditional
> large CBDs. Have a look at Stockholm region.
>
> As I've said before, even though metros cost more to build, they are
> still needed in very large cities due to the physical reality of long
> distances. This reality doesn't change just because a country is
> richer or poorer.
>
> Eric Bruun
>
> Quoting Cornie Huizenga <cornie.huizenga at slocatpartnership.org>:
>
>  Dear Sujit,
>>
>> Thanks for sharing this. This discussion  reminds me of an earlier
>> discussion on urban transport in India. It was the urban development
>> minister who mentioned that 90% of he road space was allocated to 10% of
>> the
>> users.
>>
>> I think that there is an imminent danger that 90% of the funds for urban
>> public transport will be spent on metros who will not take up more than
>> 10%
>> of the trips :-)
>>
>> The ongoing debate on metros will shape urban transport  and the Indian
>> cities to a great extent.  Good luck!
>>
>> Cornie
>>
>> On Fri, Oct 1, 2010 at 8:36 PM, Sujit Patwardhan <
>> patwardhan.sujit at gmail.com
>>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>
>>  1 October 2010
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Dear Adhiraj,
>>> This makes imminent sense to me, but for common citizens the attraction
>>> for
>>> Metro grows with each passing day.............
>>> As strong advocates of Public Transport we want to be fair in judging the
>>> metro and not damn it out of hand but so far the case for a Metro seems
>>> unconvincing. We had organized a National Round Table Meeting on Metro
>>> Rail
>>> in Pune on 21st ans 22nd July.
>>> The Report from that programme is down-loadable from the Parisar website.
>>> Here is the link:
>>> http://www.parisar.org/activities/events/122-the-city-and-the-metro.html
>>> We will apprecaite your comments and suggestions.
>>> Many thanks
>>> --
>>> Sujit
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Fri, Oct 1, 2010 at 5:51 PM, Dr Adhiraj Joglekar <
>>> adhiraj.joglekar at googlemail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> > The only alternative available...... in medicine (being a doctor) there
>>> is
>>> > a
>>> > dictum, you only need one exception to the rule to disprove a dogmatic
>>> > belief / theory.
>>> >
>>> > London tubes do 3.5 million passenger trips per day, London buses carry
>>> > double this number. And its a traditional bus service with handful of
>>> bus
>>> > lanes.
>>> >
>>> > Same is true with Mumbai buses considering they do not cover the length
>>> of
>>> > tracks beyond corporation limits as the trains do. BEST does 4.5
>>> million
>>> > trips a day in a geographically smaller area. Considering that in
>>> Mumbai
>>> > population has shot to 20 million (against London's 8m) they have half
>>> the
>>> > number of buses than in London and no bus lanes. Those keen may look up
>>> > Chennai buses and their numbers. Bangalore also has a bus service
>>> managing
>>> > 3m trips a day.
>>> >
>>> > In Mumbai 60 odd flyovers (which are no use to buses) have made life a
>>> hell
>>> > by trying to make way for more cars. Mumbai actually has the sea link
>>> as
>>> > its
>>> > best TDM example, the sea link will come to a halt if its use was FREE.
>>> >
>>> > The bottom line is to free up our roads and use buses - they offer a
>>> door
>>> > to
>>> > door service as against trains and even BRT which need dedicated
>>> corridors
>>> > -
>>> > it takes me 20 minutes walking to get to stations (it takes 8 minutes
>>> on
>>> > average to walk 500 meters) for my daily commute in London by train
>>> while
>>> > bus stops are just outside on main street. Even after changing buses
>>> and
>>> > respecting 3 dozen signals on road, the bus on average is only 10
>>> minutes
>>> > more. Halve the cars and the bus would beat the train!!
>>> >
>>> > Further, our city planners and slum redevelopment authorities want to
>>> place
>>> > half a million daily wage earners who live and work in their shanties
>>> of
>>> > Dharavi producing $1 billion worth of turnover every year in to
>>> communist
>>> > style matchbox flats in vertical estates (which ironically are being
>>> > demolished in UK in some places). This would free up land for luxury
>>> flats
>>> > for the neo rich and double population of Dharavi. More crucially
>>> > businesses
>>> > may relocate and suddenly what was a sustainable model (bus for the
>>> lack
>>> of
>>> > sanitation) changes to people being forced to commute on so called
>>> elevated
>>> > metro trains.
>>> >
>>> > Cheers.
>>> >
>>> > AJ
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > On 1 October 2010 03:43, AD <banmt at yahoo.com> wrote:
>>> >
>>> > > Dear Mr. Padiyar,
>>> > >
>>> > > You wrote "According to global standards for rail based public
>>> > > transport, this is the only alternative available for meeting the
>>> demand
>>> > > - Tokyo, Hong Kong...".I thought some BRT systems if planned properly
>>> can
>>> > > technically get the same capacity as rail-based public transport.
>>> > >
>>> > > For me, which technology (subway, light rail, BRT) is used is not
>>> that
>>> > > important
>>> > > because they are all mass transit. What government in a developing
>>> > country
>>> > > should concern is how to use as less as possible money on mass
>>> transit
>>> > > option
>>> > > (of course with the same capacity) so that the extra money can be
>>> used
>>> to
>>> > > invest
>>> > > in improving pedestrian condition, which actually is the underlying
>>> > > prerequisite
>>> > > for any bus/rail trip.
>>> > >
>>> > >
>>> > > And also, as mentioned by Lee Schipper, any of these mass transit has
>>> to
>>> > > compete
>>> > > with motorcycles (or in other words - convenience). Therefore by
>>> taking
>>> > the
>>> > > existing road space for its busways, BRT does the job better than its
>>> > > counterparts: subway or elevated rail.
>>> > >
>>> > > With best regards,
>>> > >
>>> > > AD.
>>> > >
>>> > >
>>> > > ________________________________
>>> > > From: Lee Schipper <schipper at wri.org>
>>> > > To: K P Padiyar <kppadiyar at gmail.com>;
>>> sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
>>> > > Sent: Thu, September 30, 2010 12:52:02 AM
>>> > > Subject: [sustran] Re: First urban railway route in Hanoi under
>>> > > construction
>>> > >
>>> > > I think it is worth mentioning that Hanoi has at least twice the
>>> > > ownership rate of two-wheelers of any city in India, more than 1 two
>>> > > wheeler per household. That means that any urban rail way or BRT (one
>>> of
>>> > > each is under development) has to compete with one of the most
>>> motorized
>>> > > populations in the entire world. Here is a bit of background from my
>>> > > EMBARQ days.
>>> > > http://www.embarq.org/en/our-work/publications/hanoi-vietnam
>>> > > Commuting distances are relatively short, one reason why the
>>> > > conventional bus system started 10 years ago and two wheelers are so
>>> > > popular, not to mention conventional bicycles and even more
>>> conventional
>>> > > feet. There is a master plan for developing more distant suburbs
>>> where
>>> > > an urban rail network could be useful, but that may depend on how the
>>> > > authorities deal with the cost of two wheeler fuel and whether there
>>> is
>>> > > a sensible way of charging for increasingly crowded road space in the
>>> > > main parts of Hanoi.
>>> > >
>>> > >
>>> > > Lee Schipper, Ph.D.
>>> > > Project Scientist, Global Metropolitan Studies, UC Berkeley
>>> > > Senior Research Engineer, Precourt Energy Efficiency Center, Stanford
>>> > > Univ.
>>> > > phone +1 510 642 6889
>>> > > fax      +1 510 642 6061
>>> > > cell for emergencies +1 202 262 7476
>>> > >
>>> > >
>>> > > -----Original Message-----
>>> > > From: sustran-discuss-bounces+schipper=wri.org at list.jca.apc.org
>>> > > [mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+schipper<sustran-discuss-bounces%2Bschipper>
>>> <sustran-discuss-bounces%2Bschipper>
>>> <sustran-discuss-bounces%2Bschipper>
>>> > <sustran-discuss-bounces%2Bschipper>
>>> > > =wri.org at list.jca.apc.org] On
>>> > > Behalf Of K P Padiyar
>>> > > Sent: Wednesday, September 29, 2010 10:44 AM
>>> > > To: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
>>> > > Subject: [sustran] Re: First urban railway route in Hanoi under
>>> > > construction
>>> > >
>>> > > Dear All,
>>> > >
>>> > > Even though I have subscribed to this group since 2005, I have not
>>> > > participated in their discussions so far. With my background of more
>>> > > than 16 years of my service life in operating maintaining, planning
>>> and
>>> > > designing suburban rail services of Indian Railways in Mumbai which
>>> > > today carries nearly 7 million passengers daily on 5 HRT corridors of
>>> > > which two carry main line passenger and freight traffic also. Design
>>> > > capacity of these corridors is 1.2 million for dedicated corridors
>>> and
>>> > > half that for mainline corridors, I felt emboldened to muscle in on
>>> the
>>> > > august array of transport specialists on this issue.
>>> > >
>>> > > According to Demografia 2008, Hanoi is the second largest city of
>>> > > Vietnam with a population of 3 million with average population
>>> density
>>> > > of 154.5 persons/ha. According to global standards for rail based
>>> public
>>> > > transport, this is the only alternative available for meeting the
>>> demand
>>> > > - Tokyo, Hong Kong. Mumbai Moscow. (Dr. Kenworthy's work for UITP and
>>> WB
>>> > > in 1990s.). Hanoi is planning for a capacity of  28000 pphpd which
>>> works
>>> > > out as 467 000 trips/day which is low compared to likely demand with
>>> CBD
>>> > > densities (Job +
>>> > > population) exceeding 300 as in Mumbai where Mumbai Island has a
>>> density
>>> > > of 800/ha.
>>> > >
>>> > > Mumbai also had difficulties in acquiring land for Railways which was
>>> > > solved by promulgating TDR for the entire Mumbai Metropolitan Region
>>> > > with an estimated population of 21 million (17 million in 2001, 2011
>>> > > census results are not yet out). It was an innovative solution first
>>> > > issued by local State Government in 1991 and now copied by other
>>> metros
>>> > > of India. Even US is having such rules in some cities with heavy
>>> rail.
>>> > > Vietnam has a technical collaboration agreement with India, since it
>>> was
>>> > > was united and IR has participated in some of their projects for
>>> > > Railways.
>>> > > Mumbai has a separate Joint sector Corporation Mumbai Rail Vikas
>>> > > Corporation undertaking Railway component of Mumbai Urban Transport
>>> > > Projects Jointly funder by IBRD, Indian Government (through IR) and
>>> > > Maharashtra Government.
>>> > > They are available at  www.mrvc.indianrail.gov.in   Sanctioned
>>> projects
>>> > > under execution are about 2 billion dollars.
>>> > >
>>> > > Members of the group needing additional information on Indian high
>>> > > capacity public transport systems  can contact me and I will try my
>>> best
>>> > > to get it from original sources. IR uses wide bodied coaches 3667 mm
>>> and
>>> > > Dual traction system 1500 V. D.C. (under replacement) and 25 kV
>>> single
>>> > > phase 50 Hz system in Mumbai and other metropolitan areas. However
>>> Hanoi
>>> > > project as per data on the site quoted in the letter, mentions
>>> Chinese
>>> > > Government's aid for the project.
>>> > >
>>> > > Ho Chi Minh city in Vietnam has recently got Japanese aid for a Metro
>>> > > Rail System Project (Financed by the Japan Special Fund) under ADB
>>> aegis
>>> > > www.adb.org/projects/project.asp?id=39500.
>>> > >
>>> > > With regards.
>>> > >
>>> > > K. P. Padiyar
>>> > >
>>> > >
>>> > >
>>> > > --------------------------------------------------
>>> > > From: "AD" <banmt at yahoo.com>
>>> > > Sent: Monday, September 27, 2010 5:56 PM
>>> > > To: <sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org>
>>> > > Subject: [sustran] First urban railway route in Hanoi under
>>> construction
>>> > >
>>> > > > Source:
>>> > > >
>>> http://english.vietnamnet.vn/social/201009/First-urban-railway-route-i
>>> > > > n-Hanoi-under-construction-937891/
>>> > > >
>>> > > >
>>> > > > Looking forward to see the fare and wonder how could they make it
>>> more
>>> > >
>>> > > > tempted than that of riding a motorcycle for people.
>>> > > >
>>> > > >
>>> > > >
>>> > > > --------------------------------------------------------
>>> > > > To search the archives of sustran-discuss visit
>>> > > >
>>> http://www.google.com/coop/cse?cx=014715651517519735401:ijjtzwbu_ss
>>> > > >
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>>> > > > equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing
>>> > > countries
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>>> > > equitable
>>> > > and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries (the
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>>> > > equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing
>>> countries
>>> > > (the 'Global South').
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>>> > equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing
>>> countries
>>> > (the 'Global South').
>>> >
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------
>>> *?..each million we invest into urban motorways is an investment
>>> to destroy the city?*
>>>
>>> Mayor Hans Joachim Vogel
>>> Munich 1970
>>>
>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>
>>> Sujit Patwardhan
>>> patwardhan.sujit at gmail.com
>>> sujitjp at gmail.com
>>>
>>>
>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>> Yamuna, ICS Colony, Ganeshkhind Road, Pune 411 007, India
>>> Tel: +91 20 25537955
>>> Cell: +91 98220 26627
>>>
>>>
>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>> Parisar: www.parisar.org
>>>
>>>
>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>> --------------------------------------------------------
>>> To search the archives of sustran-discuss visit
>>> http://www.google.com/coop/cse?cx=014715651517519735401:ijjtzwbu_ss
>>>
>>> --------------------------------------------------------
>>> If you get sustran-discuss via YAHOOGROUPS, please go to
>>> http://list.jca.apc.org/manage/listinfo/sustran-discuss to join the real
>>> sustran-discuss and get full membership rights.
>>>
>>> ================================================================
>>> SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
>>> equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries
>>> (the 'Global South').
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Cornie Huizenga
>> Joint Convener
>> Partnership on Sustainable, Low Carbon Transport
>> Mobile: +86 13901949332
>> cornie.huizenga at slocatpartnership.org
>> www.slocat.net
>> --------------------------------------------------------
>> To search the archives of sustran-discuss visit
>> http://www.google.com/coop/cse?cx=014715651517519735401:ijjtzwbu_ss
>>
>> --------------------------------------------------------
>> If you get sustran-discuss via YAHOOGROUPS, please go to
>> http://list.jca.apc.org/manage/listinfo/sustran-discuss to join the real
>> sustran-discuss and get full membership rights.
>>
>> ================================================================
>> SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
>> equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries
>> (the 'Global South').
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>


-- 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
*“..each million we invest into urban motorways is an investment
to destroy the city“*

Mayor Hans Joachim Vogel
Munich 1970

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Sujit Patwardhan
patwardhan.sujit at gmail.com
sujit at parisar.org <sujitjp at gmail.com>
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yamuna, ICS Colony, Ganeshkhind Road, Pune 411 007, India
Tel: +91 20 25537955
Cell: +91 98220 26627
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parisar: www.parisar.org
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------