[sustran] Re: Mumbai monorail project looks to reduce CO2 emissions ???

[Todd Alexander Litman]

This is an interesting and important discussion. 
Conventional analysis often greatly 
underestimates the benefits of high quality 
public transportation, including emission 
reductions, by underestimating the vehicle travel 
reduction impacts. They often assume that a 
transit passenger-kilometer at best reduces one automobile-vehicle-kilometer.

Research by myself and others indicates that high 
quality public transportation (high quality rail 
transit and bus rapid transit) often has a 
significant leverage effect by affecting local 
land use patterns and vehicle ownership rates. In 
particular, rail stations, and to a lesser 
degree, bus stations, provide a catalyst for 
transit-oriented development 
(www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm45.htm ): compact, 
mixed-use, walkable neighborhoods where residents 
tend to own fewer automobiles, drive less, and 
rely more on alternative modes than would 
otherwise occur. In a typical situation, each 
rail transit passenger-kilometers substitutes for 
2 to 9 automobile-vehicle-kilometers, resulting 
in large reductions in per capita congestion 
delays, road and parking facility costs, consumer 
costs, traffic accidents, energy consumption and pollution emissions.

The key to achieving these vehicle travel 
reductions is a combination of high quality 
public transit (convenient, comfortable, 
relatively fast, reliable, affordable, safe), 
with supportive policies (parking pricing or cash 
out), and integrated land use (maximizing 
appropriate development within 1/2-kilometer of 
stations). High quality service requires 
grade-separated rail/bus routes at least most of 
the route, and attractive stations. When all of 
these factors are in place the benefits 
(including economic returns, energy savings and 
emission reductions) can be very large. When 
these factors are taken into account, transit 
system construction energy consumption and 
emissions turn out to be tiny compared with 
long-term savings. Unfortunately, conventional 
policy and project economic evaluation overlooks 
these impacts and so significantly undervalues public transit investments.

Below are publications that discuss these impacts 
and benefits. Although most are based on 
developed country analysis, I expect that the 
impacts are even larger in developing country 
cities where vehicle ownership rates are still 
relatively low. If such cities fail to invest in 
high quality public transit, residents will 
assume that, as they become more affluent they 
must purchase automobiles, since the only public 
transit available is inconvenient and 
uncomfortable. This results in automobile 
dependency. However, if such cities invest in 
high quality public transportation, even affluent 
households will continue to use public transit at 
least for some trips, and many middle-class 
households will choose to forego automobile ownership altogether.
G.B. Arrington, et al. (2008), Effects of TOD on 
Housing, Parking, and Travel, Report 128, Transit 
Cooperative Research Program (www.trb.org/CRP/TCRP/TCRP.asp).
Jeff Kenworthy (2008), “An International Review 
of The Significance of Rail in Developing More 
Sustainable Urban Transport Systems in Higher 
Income Cities,” World Transport Policy & 
Practice, Vol. 14, No. 2 
(<http://www.eco-logica.co.uk/pdf/wtpp14.2.pdf>www.eco-logica.co.uk); 
at 
<http://www.eco-logica.co.uk/pdf/wtpp14.2.pdf>www.eco-logica.co.uk/pdf/wtpp14.2.pdf. 


Todd Litman (2004), Rail Transit In America: 
Comprehensive Evaluation of Benefits, VTPI 
(<http://www.vtpi.org/>www.vtpi.org); at 
<http://www.vtpi.org/railben.pdf>www.vtpi.org/railben.pdf.

Todd Litman (2005), Evaluating Public Transit 
Benefits and Costs, VTPI 
(<http://www.vtpi.org/>www.vtpi.org); at 
<http://www.vtpi.org/tranben.pdf>www.vtpi.org/tranben.pdf.

John Holtzclaw (2000), Does A Mile In A Car Equal 
A Mile On A Train? Exploring Public Transit’s 
Effectiveness In Reducing Driving, The Sierra 
Club, 
(<http://www.sierraclub.org/sprawl/articles/reducedriving.asp>www.sierraclub.org/sprawl/articles/reducedriving.asp). 


ICF International (2008), The Broader Connection 
between Public Transportation, Energy 
Conservation and Greenhouse Gas Reduction, 
American Public Transportation Association 
(<http://www.apta.com/>www.apta.com).

Best wishes,
-Todd Litman




At 01:22 AM 29/01/2010, Morten Lange wrote:
>Hi,
>
>This is an interesting discussion.  Do you have 
>any pointers to articles that detail how one can arrive at such numbers ?
>
>No less interesting and wrought with guestimates 
>would be the number brutto number referred to in 
>the subject : "Mumbai monorail project looks to reduce CO2 emissions"
>
>I guess one would guestimate how large a 
>proportion of trips with the monorail are 
>replacing car, bus or scooter trips, and decide 
>on a probable share of different classes of fuel 
>consumption, find a weighted average and multiply ?
>
>But this would ignore systemic changes, like 
>possibly cleaner air leading to better health 
>and thus less spent on healthcare or lost in 
>days from work. Removing that number of cars and 
>buses from traffic might open up possibilites 
>for reallocating of roadspace from cars to 
>cyclists, pedestrians and buses, giving further 
>wins.  Or could delay road expansion which would 
>have meant further increases in road traffic ( in cars ).
>More transit users will increase mean a growth 
>in the number of pedestrians which in turn both 
>improves health and improves safety for 
>pedestrians and cyclists. Which in turn can 
>increase cycling and walking still further.
>
>Is anyone on the list aware of good articles / 
>books on systems thinking (feedback loops, 
>leverage points etc ) in the evaluation of car 
>v.s "alternative"  transport in cities ?
>
>
>Best Regards,
>Morten
>--
>Regards / Kveðja
>Morten Lange, Reykjavík
>
>
>--- On Fri, 29/1/10, Carlosfelipe Pardo <carlosfpardo at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > From: Carlosfelipe Pardo <carlosfpardo at gmail.com>
> > Subject: [sustran] Re: Mumbai monorail 
> project looks to reduce CO2 emissions ???
> > To: "Sudhir" <sudhir at cai-asia.org>
> > Cc: "Global 'South' Sustainable Transport" 
> <sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org>
> > Date: Friday, 29 January, 2010, 0:41
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Yes, I've heard this as well from the energy
> > expenditure side with some
> > huge numbers. The argument I know is that some systems have
> > very high
> > net energy expenditures during construction which are too
> > high compared
> > to the actual emission reductions during operation (as you
> > also note).
> > But I've actually read it in rail vs roads discussions
> > which was a bit
> > frightening... not sure what to think since numbers for
> > mass transit
> > systems are so often misleading and operating companies
> > never give you
> > the actual numbers on many issues (for instance, when you
> > ask about
> > subsidies, many operating companies state that they
> > don't have
> > subsidies when they are 100% aware of them...).
> >
> >
> >
> > Best regards,
> >
> >
> >
> > Carlos.
> >
> >
> >
> > Sudhir wrote:
> >
> >   Hi Carlos,
> >
> >
> >
> > Its around 3500 tons/km/year which is average. Important
> > thing is as
> > shown by Mikhail chester - is construction in? it can be
> > 3-28 years of
> > operation emissions ( depends on how you measure it)..
> >
> >
> >
> >   regards
> >   Sudhir
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >   On 29 January 2010 08:16,
> > Carlosfelipe Pardo
> >   <carlosfpardo at gmail.com>
> > wrote:
> >
> >   I
> > don't get it: 200 tons of CO2 reduction per day with
> > 300 thousand
> >
> > commuters? In what timespan? For background, Delhi metro
> > estimated 90
> >
> > thousand tons reduction between 2004- 2007 ( X pax per
> > day?) , and
> >
> > TransMilenio in Bogotá got 70 thousand tons
> > reduction for 2008 with 1.6
> >
> > million pax per day. Do the numbers come out right for this
> > Mumbai
> >
> > monorail? I'm not good with numbers but somehow the
> > ones for Mumbai seem
> >
> > a bit high... anyone?
> >
> >


Sincerely,
Todd Alexander Litman
Victoria Transport Policy Institute (www.vtpi.org)
litman at vtpi.org
Phone & Fax 250-360-1560
1250 Rudlin Street, Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, CANADA
“Efficiency - Equity - Clarity”