[sustran] What Does $1.67 Gasoline Mean for the Future?

[eric britton]

Dear Sustran Friends,

 

I wonder if this way of looking at an important policy problem from both a
local and broader national perspective simultaneously might have its uses in
Global South situations as well.  In any event what you have here is an
article which I intend to publish in the panel discussions for the incoming
Obama administration which are being held at
<http://transportation.nationaljournal.com>
http://transportation.nationaljournal.com.  Should you have any comments or
suggestions on this now would be a great time to have them? hope you find
something of use in this.

 

Kind regards, Eric Britton

 

 

 


" What Does $1.67 Gasoline Mean for the Future?" [1]


 

-       by Eric Britton, 6 January 2009 

New Mobility Partnerships, Paris and Los Angeles

 

I would like to look at the usual of large swings in the price of gas at the
pump from two very different perspectives. The first is that of someone born
and raised in a rural small-town environment in northeastern Mississippi,
which today looks a great deal different from how things were when I was a
child there.  The second is from the vantage of a strategic planner with a
specialty in the politics of transportation from both a sustainability and
international perspective. I would then like to see if we can find a way to
put these two presumably polar positions together for policy purposes for
the incoming administration. 

 

Let's start with the Mississippi perspective.

 

Letter from Mississippi

 

Today down in the lightly settled rural areas around my hometown of Amory
Mississippi there are at least three unyielding realities which most of our
friends and neighbors have to confront every day.  

 

First, that the time in which our town was a lively place which served to
provide both the people who lived in town and surrounding communities with a
wide range of goods and services all within walking or biking distances
somehow disappeared in the closing decades of the last century.  No one here
is quite sure of how or why it happened, but it did and it was a great loss.

 

 The second harsh reality is that as the town emptied out the only possible
way of getting around today is . . .  if you have a car.  A very American
phenomenon. But there is more to it than that.

 

The third is that most of us down there are not particularly rich, meaning
that when gas prices double or triple it hits us a lot harder than the
average American. We are not only one of the poorest states in the union,
but today more than 20% of our neighbors live below the official poverty
level.  And a lot more than that if you are a rural white and sadly worse
yet if you are a rural black.

 

So  as an average citizen from northeastern Mississippi I have some
questions about how the new team in Washington is going to deal with the
harsh realities we face both now and will surely have to face in the years
ahead. This is one problem we can be sure is not going to go away by itself.

 

Maybe I should add in closing that we have figured out that there is more to
it than just cars, transportation and the price of gas at the pump.  Maybe
some of you up there should be telling us how we can get back to towns that
offer more than an empty street and closed storefronts. That has to be part
of our solution.

 

Back in the days of the War Between the States, our part of Mississippi
resisted for a long time pressure to secede from the United States. We were
and are to this day proud and independent people. But what we now need from
Washington are some clear signals and a good understanding of the realities
we face every day.

 

We're waiting to hear from you.

 

>From an international perspective

 

My eight colleagues who have already filed their information and views on
this here have covered a lot of the very important bases for which I'm
grateful.  I would now like to take a couple of steps back from the heat of
the action and share with you my thoughts on how this looks from an
international and more strategic sustainability perspective. 

 

When we step back from the stove a couple of things become clear:

 

1.	We are going to see continuous and at times violent swings in the
price of petrol in 2009 and in the years ahead.  This is the inescapable
reality of the future.  

 

2.	At no time in the past have we seen such wide in rapid fluctuations.
This suggests to me that  whatever our future policy is it better be very
different from the past.

 

3.	It is my firm belief that this high volatility can be turned toward
to our advantage if we tackle it in a sufficiently strategic and politically
savvy manner. I and a thousand others have written in the past that "a
crisis is a terrible thing to waste", and since this is an excellent case in
point.  I hope that we will put our brains together to make sure we don't
waste this one

 

4.	However unless there is a tidal change in our approach, the
likelihood is that we are going to lurch from one to the other and in the
process show ourselves as unable to assume responsibilities of good
governance. This is no time for complacency and wait and see.  I would say
that we have done enough waiting and seeing for at least the next eight
years.

 

5.	The reality is that we have all the tools needed to engage a policy
called steady and significant increases in price at the pump, which is
needed for all the reasons which my colleagues here have pointed out very
well and which I therefore need not repeat, while at the same time ensuring
that those who today are both highly dependent on their cars will not suffer
from the necessary strategic price increases.

 

6.	So we know we have to do, and that is to work out and implement a
clear game plan for these steady price increases, beginning immediately. If
Europeans can live with gas at close to $10 a gallon, Americans can to.  And
this can be achieved moreover without a sacrifice in life quality.

 

All we need is leadership to show the way.

 

Eric Britton

 

PS.  I'm reading a fine book by James M. McPherson on the leadership
challenges that then-new president Abraham Lincoln faced when he arrived in
Washington, DC in 1861.  The book, "Tried by War", which I strongly
recommend to you, offers a number of striking analogies to the situation and
the stresses that President-elect Obama is undoubtedly going to have to face
and deal with when he takes office in just two weeks time.  President
Lincoln had plenty of advisors and plenty of generals, but things began to
move in the right direction only when he took control of it himself.

 

 


  _____  

[1] The following was my third  invited contribution to an ongoing "insider
policy discussion" sponsored by the National Journal In Washington DC ,
which has as its intention to provide counsel to orient and guide the
incoming Obama administration on matters involving policy and investments in
the transportation sector.  This piece specifically in response to
Discussion Topic: "What Does $1.67 Gasoline Mean for the Future?"  which
opens with the statement (Lisa Caruso) : "When gasoline hit $4 a gallon last
summer, many Americans started driving less, buying more fuel-efficient cars
and taking public transportation. But now that gas is much cheaper,
Americans may make different choices. With fuel prices and consumer demand
so variable, what is the best way to encourage investment in greener, more
fuel-efficient alternatives, and what does this uncertainty mean for
long-term infrastructure planning?"                             

.         To access the discussions
http://transportation.nationaljournal.com.  

.         Links to feeds to follow discussions.
http://feeds.feedburner.com/njgroup-transportation 

 

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