[sustran] [NewMobilityCafe] Quantifying Emissions Reductions from Transport Solutions - Hanoi Case Study

[Eric Britton]

This is an important piece of work by our friends at World Resources and
EMBARQ, so let me just cut and paste the Exec Summary here  to get you
going, and then point you to the full report at
http://embarq.wri.org/documentupload/EMBARQ_Measuring_the_Invisible_Hanoi.pd
f   Eric Britton

 

Measuring the Invisible: Quantifying Emissions Reductions from Transport
Solutions - Hanoi Case Study

 

Executive Summary

The primary goal of EMBARQ's study in Hanoi was to test a methodology for
estimating local and global emissions from a series of transport activ-ity
scenarios and alternative-vehicle emissions standards prepared for the city
of Hanoi. EMBARQ worked with local partners from AVL Ltd., the Hanoi
University of Technology, and consultants from CONTRANS AB to collect
transport activity data, develop emission factors, and assign emission
values to past, present, and future emission scenarios. These scenarios were
then presented to Vietnamese officials to help them make informed deci-sions
among the various policy choices.

This case study analyzes the emission impacts of two alternative transport
policies previously outlined in the Hanoi Integrated Development and
Environment Pro-gram (HAIDEP) Master Plan. One policy emphasizes im-proving
public transport, while the other is a business-as-usual scenario with
higher automobile growth (ALMEC, 2007). These mutually exclusive policies
were thought to represent the most probable future scenarios for the city's
transport system. Most background data used for emis-sion calculations came
from the HAIDEP Master Plan, although some modifications and extrapolations
were made based on proxy data from Europe or Turkey. The study includes a
series of assumptions about changes in demand and supply of transport
services and about poli-cies for investment and vehicle emission standards
that have been deemed reasonable by various experts. 

Our results showed that if government officials decide to promote public
transportation to a higher degree and to mandate stricter fuel quality and
vehicle emission standards, it will be possible to stabilize emissions in
2020 at 2005 lev-els, while still ensuring the same level of mobility to
Hanoi residents. However, without measures to restrain the growth in overall
vehicle traffic, particularly that of individual ve-hicles, fuel use and
emissions will grow significantly. A continued shift from two-wheelers to
cars will mean an enormous increase in fuel use, even if the cars are very
effi-cient. Such a shift is expected to cause enormous congestion problems
because of the lack of space in much of the city of Hanoi. Conversely,
measures to restrain individual vehicle use in favor of mass transit or
non-motorized transport will result in lower emissions and fuel use.
Emissions will also be higher in 2020 than today, unless very stringent
vehicle emission standards, such as Euro 4, are imposed within sev-eral
years so as to affect virtually every vehicle on the road by 2020. The
sooner emission mitigation measures are imple-mented, the lower future
emission will be. 

The team preparing this study presented the results to the city and national
authorities in workshops in December 2006 and March 2007. These results
caught the attention of city and national government authorities and
technical experts because they illustrated the impact of future growth and
highlight, above all, the impact of decisions that Hanoi government
authorities can make today. Topics of debate among government officials and
local experts included the ranking of the severity of the problems and
prioritizing the policy measures. In addition to stimulating a public health
debate, the Vietnamese parties involved acquired a new ap-preciation of the
value of calculating local emissions and fuel consumption of different kinds
of vehicles, as well as the importance of understanding actual traffic
patterns and coordinating actions among the various government
de-pendencies. Finally, the local and national experts involved in the
project agreed on the need for an observational body dedicated to transport
and environment. This is a promis-ing development and reflects the changing
attitude toward urban transport planning and long-term environmental and
social sustainability. Although Hanoi's future is not yet clear of
pollution, it seems to be a little brighter than yesterday.

The present study recommends that further work be done to measure vehicle
ownership, activity, fuel use, and emission factors. Such data generation
would enable ex-perts and government authorities to achieve a higher level
of certainty when comparing the impact of alternative fu-ture transport and
emission control policies.