[sustran] Re: [cai-asia] Time to change our graphs? Vehicle sales in
Japan 2008/2009
fionna.prins
fionna.prins at vsnl.com
Wed Dec 24 18:36:27 JST 2008
Dear Cornie,
We can provide production, sales and parc forecasts for: Thailand,
Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, India and China.
Let me know if you are interested and in the meantime wishing everybody
great Christmas holidays.
With kind regards,
Fionna
Segment Y Automotive Intelligence Pvt. Ltd.
128 Moica Vaddo, Pilerne 403 114, Bardez, Goa, India
tel: +91 832 240 2469, mob: +91 982 216 7457, www.segmenty.com
Cornie Huizenga wrote:
>
> Hi all,
>
> Does anyone have similar statistics for other Asian countries?
>
> Cornie
>
>
> ------
>
> December 18, 2008
>
>
> Forecast for Japan's Passenger Car & Commercial Vehicle Demand in
> Calendar Year 2009
>
> _*See also:
> http://www.jama-english.jp/statistics/forecast/2009/081218.html
> *_
>
> _*Motor Vehicles*_
>
> *1. Total Demand for Passenger Cars & Commercial Vehicles*
>
> 1. Total sales of passenger cars and commercial vehicles in Japan
> in calendar 2008 should finish at 5.11 million units, a decline
> of 4.5% from the previous year. Demand for passenger cars is
> estimated at 4.25 million units (down 3.3% from 2007); for
> trucks, at 843,000 units (down 10.1%); and for buses, at 15,400
> units (down 1.4%). The decline in sales of both passenger cars
> and commercial vehicles is attributable to the economic slowdown
> and sinking consumer confidence caused by soaring fuel prices in
> the first half of the year, as well as a dramatically
> deteriorating economy, starting in autumn, resulting from the
> U.S.-spawned global financial crisis.
>
> 2. The projection for 2009 is that the harsh economic climate
> prevailing in late 2008 will continue. Stagnant corporate
> earnings, sluggish consumer spending (due to deteriorating
> employment and income environments) and other adverse trends are
> forecast to result in a total demand for passenger cars and
> commercial vehicles of 4.86 million units, down 4.9% from 2008.
> Passenger car demand should reach 4.05 million units, down 4.8%
> from 2008, with demand for trucks and buses totalling 796,000
> units and 14,100 units respectively, down 5.6% and 8.4%.
>
> *2. Standard & Small-Sized Passenger Cars*
>
> 1. Sales of standard and small-sized passenger cars in 2008 should
> total 2.82 million units, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%. While
> the introduction of new models yielded positive results in the
> first half of the year, it is anticipated that the negative
> factors mentioned above (high fuel prices and the economic
> downturn) will indeed push the total sales figure for these
> vehicles below the 2007 level.
>
> 2. Demand for standard and small-sized cars in 2009 is forecast at
> 2.62 million units, down a significant 7.1% from 2008,
> reflecting the impact of continued negative trends such as
> sluggish consumer spending resulting from weak employment and
> income environments.
>
> *3. Mini Passenger Cars*
>
> 1. Minicar sales in 2008 are estimated at 1,439,000 units, down
> 0.6% from the previous year. Despite the favorable impact of new
> and restyled models introduced in the autumn, the overall drop
> is chiefly attributable to declining consumer confidence in a
> deteriorating economic climate.
>
> 2. In 2009, despite an anticipated continued boost from the new and
> restyled models introduced in late 2008, consumer spending is
> expected to remain weak owing to the adverse employment and
> income environments. As a result, total demand in this category
> in 2009 is forecast at 1,435,000 units, a dip of 0.3% from 2008.
>
> *4. Standard Trucks*
>
> 1. Standard truck demand in 2008 is projected at 147,000 units,
> down 14.5% from 2007 owing to a combination of factors,
> including declines in capital investment, reduced payloads and
> other trends linked to the surge in fuel prices and the economic
> downturn. Demand for heavy-duty and medium-sized trucks is
> expected to finish at 74,500 units, a 16.5% plunge from the 2007
> level.
>
> 2. In 2009 sales in this category are forecast at 128,000 units,
> down 12.9% from 2008, reflecting what is projected to be a
> continued harsh economic environment. Demand for heavy-duty and
> medium-sized trucks should stand at 62,000 units, a year-on-year
> decline of 16.8%.
>
> *5. Small Trucks*
>
> 1. Small truck sales in 2008 are estimated at 252,000 units, down
> 14.0% from the previous year owing to various factors including
> the sharp rise in fuel prices and the deteriorating economy.
>
> 2. Despite the negative economic projections for 2009, the
> introduction of new models and other positive factors should
> help bring demand in this category to 250,000 units, a dip of
> only 0.8% compared to 2008.
>
> *6. Mini-Trucks*
>
> 1. Mini-truck demand in 2008 should total 444,000 units, down 6.1%
> from the previous year. The drop is attributable to changes in
> market structure caused by shrinking numbers of small retailers
> and farmers (the primary users of these vehicles) as well as an
> overall decline in business confidence.
>
> 2. In 2009, owing to a continuation of the aforementioned trends,
> demand in this category is forecast at 418,000 units, down 5.9%
> from 2008.
>
> *7. Large Buses*
>
> 1. Sales of large buses in 2008 are estimated at 5,300 units, a
> gain of 2.9% over 2007. Replacement demand for these vehicles is
> the main factor behind this growth.
>
> 2. In 2009, however, this growth trend is not expected to continue
> under the impact of harsh economic conditions. Demand for large
> buses will likely not exceed 4,200 units, plummeting 20.8% from
> the previous year.
>
> *8. Small Buses*
>
> 1. Steady replacement demand will have helped sales of small buses
> in 2008 to finish at a projected 10,100 units, down 3.5% from 2007.
>
> 2. In 2009 sales in this category should continue to be buoyed by
> replacement demand, resulting in a final annual sales
> performance of 9,900 units, a 2.0% drop from 2008.
>
> *_Motorcycles_*
>
> *1. Total Demand for Motorcycles*
>
> A number of negative factors have impacted Japan's motorcycle market
> this year, including higher vehicle prices reflecting mandatory
> compliance with new emissions regulations (enforced in 2006, 2007 or
> 2008, depending on motorcycle type etc.) as well as a deteriorating
> economic environment stemming from the global financial crisis. Demand
> has also declined as a result of stronger crackdowns on illegal
> parking (starting in 2006) and the chronic shortage of motorcycle
> parking bays in cities and towns. On the other hand, surging fuel
> prices have underscored for consumers the economy and convenience of
> motorcycles in the 51-to-125cc category (or "Class-2 motor-driven
> cycles" as they are called in Japan) and smaller models. Nevertheless,
> and despite other positive developments such as new product launches,
> domestic market conditions are severe. Against this backdrop, total
> current and upcoming demand is forecast as follows.
>
> 1. Total motorcycle demand in Japan in calendar 2008 is estimated
> at 570,000 units, down 21.1% from 2007. Declining sales have
> been recorded in all motorcycle categories except for the
> aforementioned 51-to-125cc category.
>
> 2. In 2009 sales declines are projected in all model categories,
> with total domestic motorcycle demand expected to drop to
> 498,000 units, down 12.6% from 2008.
>
> *2. Class-1 Motor-Driven Cycles (50cc & under)*
>
> 1. Sales of Class-1 motor-driven cycles in 2008 are estimated at
> 297,000 units, a 35.2% plunge from the previous year. In
> addition to higher vehicle price tags resulting from compliance
> with stricter emissions regulations, this major decline also
> reflects the impact of stronger crackdowns on illegal parking
> linked to motorcycle parking bay shortages.
>
> 2. In 2009, as a result of the continued impact of higher vehicle
> prices, limited parking availability and other negative factors
> including a shift to bicycle use, sales in this category will
> likely not exceed 270,000 units, a drop of 9.1% from 2008.
>
> *3. Class-2 Motor-Driven Cycles (51cc-125cc)*
>
> 1. Demand for Class-2 motor-driven cycles in 2008 should reach
> 123,000 units, a 22.1% surge over 2007. The factors behind this
> gain include an increasingly favorable consumer assessment of
> their economy in the light of soaring fuel prices and,
> therefore, a wider use of these vehicles for commuting to work
> or school, as well as a rush of last-minute purchases prior to
> scheduled vehicle price hikes.
>
> 2. In 2009 demand in this category is expected to plummet 26.8%
> from 2008 to 90,000 units, as a result of higher vehicle prices
> caused by mandatory compliance with emissions regulations and,
> also, a smaller number of models on the market.
>
> *4. Mini-Sized Motorcycles (126cc-250cc)*
>
> 1. Mini-sized motorcycle sales in 2008 are forecast at 72,000
> units, down 12.0% from 2007. Because these motorcycles enjoy
> particularly high demand in urban areas, the lack of parking
> bays in cities and towns has been the single most important
> factor in their diminished sales, with an additional factor
> being higher vehicle prices resulting from mandatory compliance
> with emissions requirements.
>
> 2. Because of the continued impact of the aforementioned factors,
> sales in this category in 2009 are projected to drop to 64,000
> units, down 11.1% from 2008.
>
> *5. Small-Sized Motorcycles (over 250cc)*
>
> 1. Sales of small-sized motorcycles in 2008 should finish at 78,000
> units, a drop of 4.7% from the previous year. Although
> compliance with emissions regulations also resulted in price
> hikes for vehicles in this category, there was a stronger demand
> for these larger models for the purpose of recreational use than
> for models in other categories, especially among middle-aged riders.
>
> 2. In 2009, although demand in this category for recreational
> purposes is expected to remain firm, negative factors will
> include increased price tags for models in the 400cc-and-over
> class as a result of emissions regulations compliance. Overall
> demand in this category in 2009 is therefore projected at 74,000
> units, down 5.1% from 2008.
>
> PDF[Data chart attached (PDF)]
> <http://www.jama-english.jp/statistics/forecast/2009/081218CY2009.pdf>
>
>
>
> --
> Cornie Huizenga
> Executive Director
> CAI-Asia Center
> www://cleanairnet.org/caiasia <http://cleanairnet.org/caiasia>
> cornie.huizenga at cai-asia.org <mailto:cornie.huizenga at cai-asia.org>
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