[sustran] Re: [cai-asia] Time to change our graphs? Vehicle sales in Japan 2008/2009

[Preschern Horst AVL/GRZ]

All,
how nice- however it is to fear that all such statistics by now are
becoming scrap.
As my own boss once tought me- when I presented wonderful looking
5-years forecasts to him:
"None of us is able to predict the future- what we can do is to set up
our organization in a way allowing us utmost flexibility to match the
dynamics of market changes...."
 
Have a nice season!
 
Horst
AVL

_________________________________________________________________________________________
AVL List GmbH, Firmensitz: Graz, Firmenbuchnummer: FN 53507M, Landesgericht fuer ZRS Graz


 
________________________________

From: Cornie Huizenga [mailto:cornie.huizenga at cai-asia.org] 
Sent: Monday, December 22, 2008 16:50
To: Clean Air Initiative -- Asia
Cc: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org; Lee Schipper; Bert Fabian; Sudhir;
jleather at adb.org; Dalkmann, Holger; FULTON Lew, IEA/SPT/ETP; CAZZOLA
Pierpaolo, IEA/SPT/ETP
Subject: [cai-asia] Time to change our graphs? Vehicle sales in Japan
2008/2009



Hi all,

Does anyone have similar statistics for other Asian countries?

Cornie





------


December 18, 2008


Forecast for Japan's Passenger Car & Commercial Vehicle Demand in
Calendar Year 2009


See also:
http://www.jama-english.jp/statistics/forecast/2009/081218.html


Motor Vehicles

1. Total Demand for Passenger Cars & Commercial Vehicles

1.	Total sales of passenger cars and commercial vehicles in Japan
in calendar 2008 should finish at 5.11 million units, a decline of 4.5%
from the previous year. Demand for passenger cars is estimated at 4.25
million units (down 3.3% from 2007); for trucks, at 843,000 units (down
10.1%); and for buses, at 15,400 units (down 1.4%). The decline in sales
of both passenger cars and commercial vehicles is attributable to the
economic slowdown and sinking consumer confidence caused by soaring fuel
prices in the first half of the year, as well as a dramatically
deteriorating economy, starting in autumn, resulting from the
U.S.-spawned global financial crisis.
	
	
2.	The projection for 2009 is that the harsh economic climate
prevailing in late 2008 will continue. Stagnant corporate earnings,
sluggish consumer spending (due to deteriorating employment and income
environments) and other adverse trends are forecast to result in a total
demand for passenger cars and commercial vehicles of 4.86 million units,
down 4.9% from 2008. Passenger car demand should reach 4.05 million
units, down 4.8% from 2008, with demand for trucks and buses totalling
796,000 units and 14,100 units respectively, down 5.6% and 8.4%.

2. Standard & Small-Sized Passenger Cars 

1.	Sales of standard and small-sized passenger cars in 2008 should
total 2.82 million units, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%. While the
introduction of new models yielded positive results in the first half of
the year, it is anticipated that the negative factors mentioned above
(high fuel prices and the economic downturn) will indeed push the total
sales figure for these vehicles below the 2007 level.
	
	
2.	Demand for standard and small-sized cars in 2009 is forecast at
2.62 million units, down a significant 7.1% from 2008, reflecting the
impact of continued negative trends such as sluggish consumer spending
resulting from weak employment and income environments.

3. Mini Passenger Cars 

1.	Minicar sales in 2008 are estimated at 1,439,000 units, down
0.6% from the previous year. Despite the favorable impact of new and
restyled models introduced in the autumn, the overall drop is chiefly
attributable to declining consumer confidence in a deteriorating
economic climate.
	
	
2.	In 2009, despite an anticipated continued boost from the new and
restyled models introduced in late 2008, consumer spending is expected
to remain weak owing to the adverse employment and income environments.
As a result, total demand in this category in 2009 is forecast at
1,435,000 units, a dip of 0.3% from 2008.

4. Standard Trucks

1.	Standard truck demand in 2008 is projected at 147,000 units,
down 14.5% from 2007 owing to a combination of factors, including
declines in capital investment, reduced payloads and other trends linked
to the surge in fuel prices and the economic downturn. Demand for
heavy-duty and medium-sized trucks is expected to finish at 74,500
units, a 16.5% plunge from the 2007 level.

2.	In 2009 sales in this category are forecast at 128,000 units,
down 12.9% from 2008, reflecting what is projected to be a continued
harsh economic environment. Demand for heavy-duty and medium-sized
trucks should stand at 62,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 16.8%.

5. Small Trucks 

1.	Small truck sales in 2008 are estimated at 252,000 units, down
14.0% from the previous year owing to various factors including the
sharp rise in fuel prices and the deteriorating economy.
	
	
2.	Despite the negative economic projections for 2009, the
introduction of new models and other positive factors should help bring
demand in this category to 250,000 units, a dip of only 0.8% compared to
2008.

6. Mini-Trucks 

1.	Mini-truck demand in 2008 should total 444,000 units, down 6.1%
from the previous year. The drop is attributable to changes in market
structure caused by shrinking numbers of small retailers and farmers
(the primary users of these vehicles) as well as an overall decline in
business confidence.
	
	
2.	In 2009, owing to a continuation of the aforementioned trends,
demand in this category is forecast at 418,000 units, down 5.9% from
2008.

7. Large Buses 

1.	Sales of large buses in 2008 are estimated at 5,300 units, a
gain of 2.9% over 2007. Replacement demand for these vehicles is the
main factor behind this growth.
	
	
2.	In 2009, however, this growth trend is not expected to continue
under the impact of harsh economic conditions. Demand for large buses
will likely not exceed 4,200 units, plummeting 20.8% from the previous
year.

8. Small Buses 

1.	Steady replacement demand will have helped sales of small buses
in 2008 to finish at a projected 10,100 units, down 3.5% from 2007.
	
	
2.	In 2009 sales in this category should continue to be buoyed by
replacement demand, resulting in a final annual sales performance of
9,900 units, a 2.0% drop from 2008.

Motorcycles

1. Total Demand for Motorcycles 

A number of negative factors have impacted Japan's motorcycle market
this year, including higher vehicle prices reflecting mandatory
compliance with new emissions regulations (enforced in 2006, 2007 or
2008, depending on motorcycle type etc.) as well as a deteriorating
economic environment stemming from the global financial crisis. Demand
has also declined as a result of stronger crackdowns on illegal parking
(starting in 2006) and the chronic shortage of motorcycle parking bays
in cities and towns. On the other hand, surging fuel prices have
underscored for consumers the economy and convenience of motorcycles in
the 51-to-125cc category (or "Class-2 motor-driven cycles" as they are
called in Japan) and smaller models. Nevertheless, and despite other
positive developments such as new product launches, domestic market
conditions are severe. Against this backdrop, total current and upcoming
demand is forecast as follows.

1.	Total motorcycle demand in Japan in calendar 2008 is estimated
at 570,000 units, down 21.1% from 2007. Declining sales have been
recorded in all motorcycle categories except for the aforementioned
51-to-125cc category.
	
	
2.	In 2009 sales declines are projected in all model categories,
with total domestic motorcycle demand expected to drop to 498,000 units,
down 12.6% from 2008.

2. Class-1 Motor-Driven Cycles (50cc & under) 

1.	Sales of Class-1 motor-driven cycles in 2008 are estimated at
297,000 units, a 35.2% plunge from the previous year. In addition to
higher vehicle price tags resulting from compliance with stricter
emissions regulations, this major decline also reflects the impact of
stronger crackdowns on illegal parking linked to motorcycle parking bay
shortages.
	
	
2.	In 2009, as a result of the continued impact of higher vehicle
prices, limited parking availability and other negative factors
including a shift to bicycle use, sales in this category will likely not
exceed 270,000 units, a drop of 9.1% from 2008.

3. Class-2 Motor-Driven Cycles (51cc-125cc) 

1.	Demand for Class-2 motor-driven cycles in 2008 should reach
123,000 units, a 22.1% surge over 2007. The factors behind this gain
include an increasingly favorable consumer assessment of their economy
in the light of soaring fuel prices and, therefore, a wider use of these
vehicles for commuting to work or school, as well as a rush of
last-minute purchases prior to scheduled vehicle price hikes.
	
	
2.	In 2009 demand in this category is expected to plummet 26.8%
from 2008 to 90,000 units, as a result of higher vehicle prices caused
by mandatory compliance with emissions regulations and, also, a smaller
number of models on the market.

4. Mini-Sized Motorcycles (126cc-250cc) 

1.	Mini-sized motorcycle sales in 2008 are forecast at 72,000
units, down 12.0% from 2007. Because these motorcycles enjoy
particularly high demand in urban areas, the lack of parking bays in
cities and towns has been the single most important factor in their
diminished sales, with an additional factor being higher vehicle prices
resulting from mandatory compliance with emissions requirements.
	
	
2.	Because of the continued impact of the aforementioned factors,
sales in this category in 2009 are projected to drop to 64,000 units,
down 11.1% from 2008.

5. Small-Sized Motorcycles (over 250cc) 

1.	Sales of small-sized motorcycles in 2008 should finish at 78,000
units, a drop of 4.7% from the previous year. Although compliance with
emissions regulations also resulted in price hikes for vehicles in this
category, there was a stronger demand for these larger models for the
purpose of recreational use than for models in other categories,
especially among middle-aged riders.
	
	
2.	In 2009, although demand in this category for recreational
purposes is expected to remain firm, negative factors will include
increased price tags for models in the 400cc-and-over class as a result
of emissions regulations compliance. Overall demand in this category in
2009 is therefore projected at 74,000 units, down 5.1% from 2008.

 PDF<http://www.jama-english.jp/img/pdf_small.gif> [Data chart attached
(PDF)]
<http://www.jama-english.jp/statistics/forecast/2009/081218CY2009.pdf> 



-- 
Cornie Huizenga
Executive Director
CAI-Asia Center
www://cleanairnet.org/caiasia
cornie.huizenga at cai-asia.org
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