[sustran] Time to change our graphs? Vehicle sales in Japan 2008/2009

Cornie Huizenga cornie.huizenga at cai-asia.org
Mon Dec 22 18:50:17 JST 2008


Hi all,

Does anyone have similar statistics for other Asian countries?

Cornie


------

December 18, 2008
Forecast for Japan's Passenger Car & Commercial Vehicle Demand in Calendar
Year 2009

 *See also: http://www.jama-english.jp/statistics/forecast/2009/081218.html
*

*Motor Vehicles*

*1. Total Demand for Passenger Cars & Commercial Vehicles*

   1. Total sales of passenger cars and commercial vehicles in Japan in
   calendar 2008 should finish at 5.11 million units, a decline of 4.5% from
   the previous year. Demand for passenger cars is estimated at 4.25 million
   units (down 3.3% from 2007); for trucks, at 843,000 units (down 10.1%); and
   for buses, at 15,400 units (down 1.4%). The decline in sales of both
   passenger cars and commercial vehicles is attributable to the economic
   slowdown and sinking consumer confidence caused by soaring fuel prices in
   the first half of the year, as well as a dramatically deteriorating economy,
   starting in autumn, resulting from the U.S.-spawned global financial crisis.

   2. The projection for 2009 is that the harsh economic climate prevailing
   in late 2008 will continue. Stagnant corporate earnings, sluggish consumer
   spending (due to deteriorating employment and income environments) and other
   adverse trends are forecast to result in a total demand for passenger cars
   and commercial vehicles of 4.86 million units, down 4.9% from 2008.
   Passenger car demand should reach 4.05 million units, down 4.8% from 2008,
   with demand for trucks and buses totalling 796,000 units and 14,100 units
   respectively, down 5.6% and 8.4%.

*2. Standard & Small-Sized Passenger Cars*

   1. Sales of standard and small-sized passenger cars in 2008 should total
   2.82 million units, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%. While the introduction
   of new models yielded positive results in the first half of the year, it is
   anticipated that the negative factors mentioned above (high fuel prices and
   the economic downturn) will indeed push the total sales figure for these
   vehicles below the 2007 level.

   2. Demand for standard and small-sized cars in 2009 is forecast at 2.62
   million units, down a significant 7.1% from 2008, reflecting the impact of
   continued negative trends such as sluggish consumer spending resulting from
   weak employment and income environments.

 *3. Mini Passenger Cars*

   1. Minicar sales in 2008 are estimated at 1,439,000 units, down 0.6% from
   the previous year. Despite the favorable impact of new and restyled models
   introduced in the autumn, the overall drop is chiefly attributable to
   declining consumer confidence in a deteriorating economic climate.

   2. In 2009, despite an anticipated continued boost from the new and
   restyled models introduced in late 2008, consumer spending is expected to
   remain weak owing to the adverse employment and income environments. As a
   result, total demand in this category in 2009 is forecast at 1,435,000
   units, a dip of 0.3% from 2008.

*4. Standard Trucks*

   1. Standard truck demand in 2008 is projected at 147,000 units, down
   14.5% from 2007 owing to a combination of factors, including declines in
   capital investment, reduced payloads and other trends linked to the surge in
   fuel prices and the economic downturn. Demand for heavy-duty and
   medium-sized trucks is expected to finish at 74,500 units, a 16.5% plunge
   from the 2007 level.


   1. In 2009 sales in this category are forecast at 128,000 units, down
   12.9% from 2008, reflecting what is projected to be a continued harsh
   economic environment. Demand for heavy-duty and medium-sized trucks should
   stand at 62,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 16.8%.

 *5. Small Trucks*

   1. Small truck sales in 2008 are estimated at 252,000 units, down 14.0%
   from the previous year owing to various factors including the sharp rise in
   fuel prices and the deteriorating economy.

   2. Despite the negative economic projections for 2009, the introduction
   of new models and other positive factors should help bring demand in this
   category to 250,000 units, a dip of only 0.8% compared to 2008.

 *6. Mini-Trucks*

   1. Mini-truck demand in 2008 should total 444,000 units, down 6.1% from
   the previous year. The drop is attributable to changes in market structure
   caused by shrinking numbers of small retailers and farmers (the primary
   users of these vehicles) as well as an overall decline in business
   confidence.

   2. In 2009, owing to a continuation of the aforementioned trends, demand
   in this category is forecast at 418,000 units, down 5.9% from 2008.

 *7. Large Buses*

   1. Sales of large buses in 2008 are estimated at 5,300 units, a gain of
   2.9% over 2007. Replacement demand for these vehicles is the main factor
   behind this growth.

   2. In 2009, however, this growth trend is not expected to continue under
   the impact of harsh economic conditions. Demand for large buses will likely
   not exceed 4,200 units, plummeting 20.8% from the previous year.

 *8. Small Buses*

   1. Steady replacement demand will have helped sales of small buses in
   2008 to finish at a projected 10,100 units, down 3.5% from 2007.

   2. In 2009 sales in this category should continue to be buoyed by
   replacement demand, resulting in a final annual sales performance of 9,900
   units, a 2.0% drop from 2008.

 *Motorcycles*

*1. Total Demand for Motorcycles*

A number of negative factors have impacted Japan's motorcycle market this
year, including higher vehicle prices reflecting mandatory compliance with
new emissions regulations (enforced in 2006, 2007 or 2008, depending on
motorcycle type etc.) as well as a deteriorating economic environment
stemming from the global financial crisis. Demand has also declined as a
result of stronger crackdowns on illegal parking (starting in 2006) and the
chronic shortage of motorcycle parking bays in cities and towns. On the
other hand, surging fuel prices have underscored for consumers the economy
and convenience of motorcycles in the 51-to-125cc category (or "Class-2
motor-driven cycles" as they are called in Japan) and smaller models.
Nevertheless, and despite other positive developments such as new product
launches, domestic market conditions are severe. Against this backdrop,
total current and upcoming demand is forecast as follows.

   1. Total motorcycle demand in Japan in calendar 2008 is estimated at
   570,000 units, down 21.1% from 2007. Declining sales have been recorded in
   all motorcycle categories except for the aforementioned 51-to-125cc
   category.

   2. In 2009 sales declines are projected in all model categories, with
   total domestic motorcycle demand expected to drop to 498,000 units, down
   12.6% from 2008.

*2. Class-1 Motor-Driven Cycles (50cc & under)*

   1. Sales of Class-1 motor-driven cycles in 2008 are estimated at 297,000
   units, a 35.2% plunge from the previous year. In addition to higher vehicle
   price tags resulting from compliance with stricter emissions regulations,
   this major decline also reflects the impact of stronger crackdowns on
   illegal parking linked to motorcycle parking bay shortages.

   2. In 2009, as a result of the continued impact of higher vehicle prices,
   limited parking availability and other negative factors including a shift to
   bicycle use, sales in this category will likely not exceed 270,000 units, a
   drop of 9.1% from 2008.

 *3. Class-2 Motor-Driven Cycles (51cc-125cc)*

   1. Demand for Class-2 motor-driven cycles in 2008 should reach 123,000
   units, a 22.1% surge over 2007. The factors behind this gain include an
   increasingly favorable consumer assessment of their economy in the light of
   soaring fuel prices and, therefore, a wider use of these vehicles for
   commuting to work or school, as well as a rush of last-minute purchases
   prior to scheduled vehicle price hikes.

   2. In 2009 demand in this category is expected to plummet 26.8% from 2008
   to 90,000 units, as a result of higher vehicle prices caused by mandatory
   compliance with emissions regulations and, also, a smaller number of models
   on the market.

 *4. Mini-Sized Motorcycles (126cc-250cc)*

   1. Mini-sized motorcycle sales in 2008 are forecast at 72,000 units, down
   12.0% from 2007. Because these motorcycles enjoy particularly high demand in
   urban areas, the lack of parking bays in cities and towns has been the
   single most important factor in their diminished sales, with an additional
   factor being higher vehicle prices resulting from mandatory compliance with
   emissions requirements.

   2. Because of the continued impact of the aforementioned factors, sales
   in this category in 2009 are projected to drop to 64,000 units, down 11.1%
   from 2008.

 *5. Small-Sized Motorcycles (over 250cc)*

   1. Sales of small-sized motorcycles in 2008 should finish at 78,000
   units, a drop of 4.7% from the previous year. Although compliance with
   emissions regulations also resulted in price hikes for vehicles in this
   category, there was a stronger demand for these larger models for the
   purpose of recreational use than for models in other categories, especially
   among middle-aged riders.

   2. In 2009, although demand in this category for recreational purposes is
   expected to remain firm, negative factors will include increased price tags
   for models in the 400cc-and-over class as a result of emissions regulations
   compliance. Overall demand in this category in 2009 is therefore projected
   at 74,000 units, down 5.1% from 2008.

[image: PDF][Data chart attached (PDF)]
<http://www.jama-english.jp/statistics/forecast/2009/081218CY2009.pdf>


-- 
Cornie Huizenga
Executive Director
CAI-Asia Center
www://cleanairnet.org/caiasia
cornie.huizenga at cai-asia.org
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