[sustran] Re: E-bikes vs bikes

[Cherry, Chris R (Christopher Cherry)]

E-bikes emit a less on almost all levels than motorbikes. Some recent
work we've been doing in China shows that e-bikes emit 1/3 the CO2 as a
motorbike. Similar improvements can be seen on almost all local
pollutants with the exception of SO2, which has comparable rates, but
this highly depends on local electricity generation mix. Another issue
where e-bikes have an advantage is the ability for agencies to manage a
few point emission sources (power plants), compared to millions of
tailpipes. Finally, emissions from power plants are generally more
remote and thus populations have less exposure to the pollutant than
ground-level tailpipe emissions in dense urban areas. In the context of
local "tailpipe" emissions electric bikes/scooters/motorbikes perform
much better than gasoline motorbikes. 

Lead pollution on the other hand is where electric bikes do not perform
so well. This is something that the Vietnam EPA is addressing by
developing a lead acid battery recycling system that encourages
take-back into the "formal" sector, rather than backyard recyclers. I am
working with them on this along with the development of an eco-label for
sustainable battery production with an NGO, OK International
(www.okinternational.org). Whether the Vietnamese can succeed in
managing a "clean" lead battery supply chain is uncertain but they are
certainly making an effort to address it, before e-bikes flood the
market. Because of Vietnam's poor recycling infrastructure, a lot of
lead scrap in Vietnam is being exported (illegally) to China, but that
could change as more recyclers enter the market. It could be beneficial
to begin looking at new battery technology for this new market, now that
Lead has gotten expensive and Li-ion is coming down in price. One still
has to address the recycling problem, but Li-ion could be more
manageable than Lead. 

There is also some work in progress looking at some market analysis,
using a stated preference survey that we conducted in June. The initial
results actually show quite a strong preference for e-scooters, based on
performance, cost and other metrics. I will send an email to this
listserve when I have a report with some solid findings. 

To summarize, e-scooters will improve local air quality, energy
efficiency, and GHG emissions in Vietnam (perhaps also improving cost
effectiveness of travel and safety at the same time). Introducing
e-vehicles into the cities will increase lead pollution, simply because
most current e-scooters use large lead batteries, frequently. The cost
of alternative technology (Li-ion) is coming down, potentially leading
to more adoption (maybe with the help of regulators). Also, Vietnam
policy makers have been more pro-active than most in addressing lead
problems in the past couple of years (in my opinion), so there is a
higher chance that there will be a robust take-back policy like we see
in the North America or Europe, and hopefully this will lead to high
rates of formal recycling. 

Chris Cherry
Assistant Professor
Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Tennessee-Knoxville
223 Perkins Hall
Knoxville, TN 37996-2010
phone: 865-974-7710
mobile: 865-684-8106
fax: 865-974-2669
http://web.utk.edu/~cherry




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Today's Topics:

   1. E-bikes vs bikes (AD)
   2. Re: E-bikes vs bikes (Sudhir)


----------------------------------------------------------------------

Message: 1
Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2008 23:04:20 -0700 (PDT)
From: AD <banmt at yahoo.com>
Subject: [sustran] E-bikes vs bikes
To: Global 'South' Sustainable Transport
	<sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org>,	banmt at yahoo.com
Message-ID: <871489.98087.qm at web39808.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=windows-1252

As petrol price has increased recently from 14.500 VND to 19.000 VND
(around 31%) (1USD~17.000VND), more and more Vietnamese people are
buying e-bikes as an alternative for their motorbikes. However,
concerning the environmental effects of electricity generation (burning
oil/petrol/coal for thermal power or building dams for hydropower) and
of manufacturing and disposing of?batteries used in e-bikes, i wonder if
it is a good trend. Any advise or comment will be highly appreciated.

Best regards,

AD.


--- On Sat, 11/25/06, cherry at berkeley.edu <cherry at berkeley.edu> wrote:
From: cherry at berkeley.edu <cherry at berkeley.edu>
Subject: [sustran]  Re: Guangzhou bans electric bicycles
To: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
Date: Saturday, November 25, 2006, 6:10 AM

Hopefully this doesn?t post twice, I had a computer glitch. Sorry in
advance if it did.

Chinese policy makers in have cited safety, lead pollution, contribution
to congestion and ?image? as reasons for banning ebikes in Guangzhou and
trying in Beijing. Electric bikes are very good on many levels. They
provide mobility that is unmatched by almost any other mode and no
tailpipe emissions. They do use electricity from predominately coal
power
plants, but even so, the emission rates per km are lower than most other
modes. The human health impacts of power plant emissions in rural areas
are likely lower than tailpipe emissions in dense cities. The biggest
problem with ebikes is lead from battery use. Ebike batteries are about
the same size as car batteries and they go through them rather fast. A
lot
of lead is lost during the manufacture and recycling processes, so even
100% recycling wouldn?t fix this problem. This isn?t a problem with
ebikes, it?s a problem with the lead industry and the sooner ebikes
transition into Li-ion or NiMH batteries the better. The ebike industry
might need some regulatory ?help? making this transition.

Ebikes aren?t necessarily unsafe, they are simply vulnerable, like
bicyclists. Based on some data I?ve seen, they are no more unsafe that
bicycles and they are much safer than cars. The safety argument doesn?t
hold a lot of water in my opinion.

The problem with most of the policy that is being developed is that
policy
makers are not considering alternative modes once ebikes are regulated.
Ebikes are unsafe, dirty, congestion causing?compared to what mode.
Compare them to cars and ebikes win on most metrics. Compare them to
bicycles and they don?t. Most ebikers would otherwise use bus or
bicycle,
so the environmental/energy impact difference is small. The big benefit
of
ebikes that is not considered is the high levels of mobility and
accessibility that they provide to lower income residents. These impacts
are not being considered.

The point is that this is not a completely green or sustainable
transportation mode, but with some minor improvements and compared to
the
future alternative modes as incomes rise- it performs really well.

This is the subject of my dissertation research in which addresses the
above issues. Email me or check out my website if you would like to see
some working papers or preliminary results.

Christopher Cherry
PhD Candidate
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, Berkeley
cherry at berkeley.edu
www.ce.berkeley.edu/~cherry
www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter






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------------------------------

Message: 2
Date: Tue, 12 Aug 2008 14:20:52 +0800
From: Sudhir <sudhir at cai-asia.org>
Subject: [sustran] Re: E-bikes vs bikes
To: banmt at yahoo.com
Cc: Global 'South' Sustainable Transport
	<sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org>
Message-ID:
	<ef31aa130808112320s636d2d4fia97ba35250c5f90b at mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=WINDOWS-1252

Dear AD,

you can possibly look into the research from Christopher Cherry from
University of California-Berkeley.

http://www.its.berkeley.edu/publications/UCB/2007/VWP/UCB-ITS-VWP-2007-2
.pdf


regards
Sudhir

On 12/08/2008, AD <banmt at yahoo.com> wrote:

> As petrol price has increased recently from 14.500 VND to 19.000 VND
> (around 31%) (1USD~17.000VND), more and more Vietnamese people are
buying
> e-bikes as an alternative for their motorbikes. However, concerning
the
> environmental effects of electricity generation (burning
oil/petrol/coal for
> thermal power or building dams for hydropower) and of manufacturing
and
> disposing of batteries used in e-bikes, i wonder if it is a good
trend. Any
> advise or comment will be highly appreciated.
>
> Best regards,
>
> AD.
>
>
> --- On Sat, 11/25/06, cherry at berkeley.edu <cherry at berkeley.edu> wrote:
> From: cherry at berkeley.edu <cherry at berkeley.edu>
> Subject: [sustran]  Re: Guangzhou bans electric bicycles
> To: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
> Date: Saturday, November 25, 2006, 6:10 AM
>
> Hopefully this doesn't post twice, I had a computer glitch. Sorry in
> advance if it did.
>
> Chinese policy makers in have cited safety, lead pollution,
contribution
> to congestion and "image" as reasons for banning ebikes in Guangzhou
and
> trying in Beijing. Electric bikes are very good on many levels. They
> provide mobility that is unmatched by almost any other mode and no
> tailpipe emissions. They do use electricity from predominately coal
power
> plants, but even so, the emission rates per km are lower than most
other
> modes. The human health impacts of power plant emissions in rural
areas
> are likely lower than tailpipe emissions in dense cities. The biggest
> problem with ebikes is lead from battery use. Ebike batteries are
about
> the same size as car batteries and they go through them rather fast. A
lot
> of lead is lost during the manufacture and recycling processes, so
even
> 100% recycling wouldn't fix this problem. This isn't a problem with
> ebikes, it's a problem with the lead industry and the sooner ebikes
> transition into Li-ion or NiMH batteries the better. The ebike
industry
> might need some regulatory "help" making this transition.
>
> Ebikes aren't necessarily unsafe, they are simply vulnerable, like
> bicyclists. Based on some data I've seen, they are no more unsafe that
> bicycles and they are much safer than cars. The safety argument
doesn't
> hold a lot of water in my opinion.
>
> The problem with most of the policy that is being developed is that
policy
> makers are not considering alternative modes once ebikes are
regulated.
> Ebikes are unsafe, dirty, congestion causing?compared to what mode.
> Compare them to cars and ebikes win on most metrics. Compare them to
> bicycles and they don't. Most ebikers would otherwise use bus or
bicycle,
> so the environmental/energy impact difference is small. The big
benefit of
> ebikes that is not considered is the high levels of mobility and
> accessibility that they provide to lower income residents. These
impacts
> are not being considered.
>
> The point is that this is not a completely green or sustainable
> transportation mode, but with some minor improvements and compared to
the
> future alternative modes as incomes rise- it performs really well.
>
> This is the subject of my dissertation research in which addresses the
> above issues. Email me or check out my website if you would like to
see
> some working papers or preliminary results.
>
> Christopher Cherry
> PhD Candidate
> Institute of Transportation Studies
> University of California, Berkeley
> cherry at berkeley.edu
> www.ce.berkeley.edu/~cherry
> www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------------
> IMPORTANT NOTE to everyone who gets sustran-discuss messages via
> YAHOOGROUPS.
>
> Please go to http://list.jca.apc.org/manage/listinfo/sustran-discuss
to
> join
> the real sustran-discuss and get full membership rights. The
yahoogroups
> version
> is only a mirror and 'members' there cannot post to the real
> sustran-discuss (even if the yahoogroups site makes it seem like you
can).
> Apologies for the confusing arrangement.
>
> ================================================================
> SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
> equitable
> and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries (the
'Global
> South').
>
>
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------------
> IMPORTANT NOTE to everyone who gets sustran-discuss messages via
> YAHOOGROUPS.
>
> Please go to http://list.jca.apc.org/manage/listinfo/sustran-discuss
to
> join the real sustran-discuss and get full membership rights. The
> yahoogroups version is only a mirror and 'members' there cannot post
to the
> real sustran-discuss (even if the yahoogroups site makes it seem like
you
> can). Apologies for the confusing arrangement.
>
> ================================================================
> SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
> equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing
countries
> (the 'Global South').
>



-- 
Sudhir Gota
Transport Specialist
CAI-Asia Center
Unit 3510, 35th Floor, Robinsons-Equitable Tower,
ADB Avenue, Ortigas Center, Pasig City
Metro Manila, Philippines 1605
Tel: +63-2-395-2843
Fax: +63-2-395-2846
http://www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia
Skype : sudhirgota


------------------------------

================================================================
SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries
(the 'Global South'). 

End of Sustran-discuss Digest, Vol 60, Issue 8
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