[sustran] VTPI Newsletter, Summer 2008

[Todd Alexander Litman]

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                                   VTPI NEWS
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                       Victoria Transport Policy Institute
                          "Efficiency - Equity - Clarity"
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                           Summer 2008    Vol. 11, No. 3
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The Victoria Transport Policy Institute is an 
independent research organization dedicated to 
developing innovative solutions to transportation 
problems. The VTPI website (http://www.vtpi.org ) 
has many resources addressing a wide range of 
transport planning and policy issues. VTPI also provides consulting services.
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NEW DOCUMENTS
==============

"Carbon Taxes: Tax What You Burn, Not What You 
Earn" (http://www.vtpi.org/carbontax.pdf )
Carbon taxes are based on fossil fuel carbon 
content, and therefore tax carbon dioxide 
emissions. In July 2008 British Columbia 
introduced the first carbon tax in North America. 
This paper evaluates this tax. BC’s new tax 
reflects key carbon tax principles: it is broad, 
gradual, predictable, and structured to assist 
low-income people. It begins small and increases 
gradually, allowing consumers and businesses to 
respond with increased energy efficiency. 
Revenues are returned to residents and businesses 
in ways that protect the lowest income 
households. Like most new taxes, the carbon tax 
has been criticized, but much of this criticism 
is technically incorrect or exaggerated. 
Consumers have many possible ways to conserve 
energy and therefore reduce their tax burden. 
Since lower-income households tend to consume 
less than average amounts of fuel and receive 
targeted rebates, most low-income households will 
benefit overall. This tax supports economic 
development by encouraging energy conservation 
which keeps money circulating within the regional 
economy. British Columbia’s carbon tax shows true 
leadership. If other jurisdictions follow, its 
impacts and benefits will be huge.


"Pay-As-You-Drive Insurance: Recommendations for 
Implementation" (http://www.vtpi.org/payd_rec.pdf )
This paper provides guidance for implementing 
Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD) vehicle insurance. It 
describes PAYD pricing options, discusses PAYD 
benefits and costs, describes regulatory reforms, 
evaluates various objections to PAYD, and 
provides specific recommendations for PAYD 
implementation. It was prepared for a recent PAYD 
workshop by the California Department of Insurance.


ONLINE TDM ENCYCLOPEDIA
==========================
We recently updated our "Online TDM Encyclopedia" 
(http://www.vtpi.org/tdm ), a comprehensive 
source of information about innovative management 
solutions to transport problems. We revised and 
expanded many chapters, and added these new ones:

'Multi-Modal Level-Of-Service Indicators' 
(http://www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm129.htm ). Describes 
Level-of-Service (LOS) rating systems suitable 
for evaluating the quality of various transport 
modes from a user's perspective. This helps make 
transport planning more neutral and responsive, 
and is particularly important for TDM planning.

'Public Bike Systems' 
(http://www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm126.htm ). Automated 
bicycle rental systems designed to provide 
efficient mobility for short, utilitarian urban trips.

'Transit Station Improvements' 
(http://www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm127.htm ). Describes 
ways to improve public transit stop and station waiting conditions.
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PUBLISHED ELSEWHERE
===================

'Developing Indicators For Comprehensive And 
Sustainable Transport Planning,' published in 
"Transportation Research Record 2017," 
Transportation Research Board 
(<http://www.trb.org/>www.trb.org), 2007, pp. 10-15.

'Valuing Transit Service Quality Improvements,' 
published in the "Journal of Public 
Transportation," Vol. 11, No. 2, Spring 2008, pp. 
43-64; at 
www.nctr.usf.edu/jpt/pdf/JPT11-2Litman.pdf . A 
corrected version of Table 3 is available as 
Table 11 in the report "Valuing Transit Service 
Quality Improvements" (http://www.vtpi.org/traveltime.pdf ).

"Please Tax My Carbon" 
(http://www.planetizen.com/node/33959 ), Planetizen Blog.
"Cheap energy policies and resulting high rates 
of energy consumption now impose increasing 
economic, social and environmental harms. People 
who are energy rich are becoming poor in other 
ways: high energy consumption impoverishes 
consumers, transfers wealth from North America to 
foreign energy producers, and exacerbates 
problems such as traffic congestion and 
accidents, and creates environmental risks such 
as climate change. To avoid these problems, North 
America needs innovative solutions that increase 
the economy’s overall energy efficiency, that is, 
which extract more productivity and consumer 
welfare per joule of energy consumed. Such solutions do exist"
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UPCOMING EVENTS
==============
Town Makers Discovery Tour of the Great Pacific 
Northwest, August 28 - 31, Seattle WA and 
Vancouver B.C. (http://www.vtpi.org/temp/pbt2008.pdf ).
This high intensity learning experience will be a 
showcase tour of the best new streets, blocks, 
parks, cottage housing, pocket neighborhoods, 
affordable housing, LEED neighborhoods, village 
housing, waterfronts and downtowns.
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IN THE NEWS
==============
"New Analysis: LEED Standards Need Reform To 
Reflect Environmental Costs Of Driving" 
(http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/kbenfield/new_analysis_leed_standards_ne.html 
) by Kaid Benfield, Director of the Smart Growth 
Program, National Resources Defense Council. This 
Blog discusses the importance of incorporating 
transportation and parking management into LEED 
standards, based on our research (http://www.vtpi.org/leed_rec.pdf ).

'Bridge Expansion Plans Ignore Effects of Growth' 
(http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1214029515244280.xml&coll=7)
Jul 04 2008 -- The Oregonian
Plans to build a new bridge over the Columbia 
River in Portland ignored projections that said 
the newer, bigger bridge would contribute to 
outward expansion of development from the metropolitan core.
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BEEN THERE, DONE THAT
==========================
"Connected Bus" 
(http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac79/ps/cud/tcb.html 
) is an program by the Cisco Internet Business 
Solutions Group and San Francisco Municipal 
Transportation Agency (SFMTA) to use innovative 
technologies to improve the convenience, comfort 
and attractiveness of public transit bus 
services, including real time bus arrival 
information, interactive user information at 
stops and on vehicles, improved safety and 
security, and on-board WiFi service. The Victoria 
Transport Policy Institute is providing analysis support to the program.

"Creating a Quality Transportation Experience," 
Keynote Speech, Yellowstone Business Partnership 
Annual Conference, May 2008, 
(http://www.yellowstonebusiness.org/datafiles/YBP_Summer08_ProofE.pdf )
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CURRENT ISSUE – CALIFORNIA EMISSION REDUCTIONS
=================================================
The California Air Resources Board is accepting 
comments on their Draft AB 32 Scoping Plan 
(<http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/scopingplan.htm>http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/scopingplan.htm 
) at 
<http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/spcomment.htm>http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/spcomment.htm 
.

A recent Brookings Institution study, "The Impact 
of Pay-As-You-Drive Auto Insurance in California" 
(www.brookings.edu/papers/2008/07_payd_california_bordoffnoel.aspx 
) indicates that PAYD insurance pricing in 
California would provide large benefits:
    * An 8% reduction in light-duty vehicle travel.
    * Social benefits estimated to total $10.8 
billion based on current driving levels, increasing to $21.1 billion in 2020.
    * State government savings totaling $54 
million annually based on 2006 data, increasing 
to $60 million annually in 2020.
    * 7% to 9% of the total CO2 reductions needed 
to meet California’s emissions targets for 2020.
    * Nearly two-thirds (64%) of California 
households would have lower premiums under PAYD, 
with savings for that group averaging $276 per vehicle-year.
    * Particularly large benefits for low-income 
drivers. Every household income group making less 
than $47,500 (in 2001) saves on average. Even in 
higher income groups most households benefit overall.
    * For every ethnicity, a majority of households would save money.
    * Because geography is a key risk-factor, a 
roughly equal proportion of rural (62.4 percent) 
and urban (64.2 percent) California households save money with PAYD.


The California Draft Scoping Plan significantly 
underestimates PAYD benefits. Below are our 
recommendations for improving the analysis:

1. The Draft Plan assumes only a minor portion of 
insurance premiums would become distance-based. 
CORRECTION: Evaluate benefits assuming all 
vehicle insurance premiums and registration fees 
are converted to PAYD pricing, and the price 
structure meets minimum standards defined in 
"Pay-As-You-Drive Pricing: Recommendations for 
Implementation" (www.vtpi.org/payd_rec.pdf ).

2. The Draft Plan co-benefits. CORRECTION: Take 
into account all significant co-benefits, 
including crash reductions, congestion 
reductions, road and parking facility cost 
savings, consumer savings and affordability, and 
reduced sprawl, in addition to energy conservation and emission reductions.

3. The Draft Plan assumes that PAYD would be 
implemented using electronic instrumentation that 
tracks when and where a vehicle is driving, which 
adds costs and raised privacy concerns. 
CORRECTION: Include "basic PAYD", which uses 
simple odometer audits or self-reporting, which 
minimizes costs and avoids privacy risks.
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USEFUL RESOURCES
=================

Real Insurance now offers Pay-As-You-Drive 
(http://www.payasyoudrive.com.au ) vehicle 
insurance in Australia. Under their system, 
motorists report their odometer reading at the 
beginning of the policy term and purchase a 
certain number of miles. Odometer readings are 
verified if there is a claim, giving motorists an 
incentive to be accurate (false odometer readings void coverage).

Research by professors David Grabowski and 
Michael Morrisey indicates that higher fuel 
prices significantly reduce traffic fatality 
rates: their analysis indicates that each 10% 
fuel price increase reduces total traffic deaths 
2.3%, with a 6% decline for drivers aged 15 to 
17, and a 3.2% decline for ages 18 to 21 
according to analysis. See "As Gas Prices Go Up, 
Auto Deaths Drop," 
(http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080711/ap_on_he_me/auto_deaths_gas_prices 
); and '10 Things You Can Like About $4 Gas,' in 
"Time Magazine" 
(www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1819594_1819592_1819582,00.htm 
). These findings are consistent with other 
research on the safety benefits of mileage 
reductions, summarized in our report, "Safe 
Travels: Evaluating Mobility Management Traffic 
Safety Impacts" (http://www.vtpi.org/safetrav.pdf ).

Joe Cortright (2008), "Driven to the Brink: How 
the Gas Price Spike Popped the Housing Bubble and 
Devalued the Suburbs," CEOs for Cities 
(<http://www.ceosforcities.org/>www.ceosforcities.org); 
at 
www.ceosforcities.org/newsroom/pr/files/Driven%20to%20the%20Brink%20FINAL.pdf 
. This report shows the economic benefits to 
households and communities that result from more 
accessible, multi-modal community development. It 
supports the concept of "Location Efficient 
Development" (http://www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm22.htm ).

Jeff Rubin and Benjamin Tal (2008), "Heading for 
the Exit Lane" and "Getting Off the Road: 
Adjusting to $7 per Gallon Gas in America," 
published in StrategEcon, CIBC World Markets 
Newsletter 
(http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/sjun08.pdf 
). This paper summarizes research indicating that 
high fuel prices are likely to continue into the future.

John Pucher (2008), Cycling For Everyone Report, 
(http://policy.rutgers.edu/faculty/pucher/Cycling%20for%20Everyone%20VANCOUVER%2024%20June%202008.pdf 
). Also see the "Cycling For Everyone" video: 
http://www.sfu.ca/city/city_pgm_video020.htm )
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Please let us know if you have comments or 
questions about any information in this 
newsletter, or if you would like to be removed 
from our email list. And please pass this 
newsletter on to others who may find it useful.


Sincerely,
Todd Alexander Litman
Victoria Transport Policy Institute (www.vtpi.org)
litman at vtpi.org
Phone & Fax 250-360-1560
1250 Rudlin Street, Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, CANADA
“Efficiency - Equity - Clarity”