[sustran] Re: BRTS in Delhi

bruun at seas.upenn.edu bruun at seas.upenn.edu
Tue Apr 29 10:18:54 JST 2008



Brendan

Did I say I defend such estimates? I don't know the history of who  
sanctioned the estimates, but I don't automatically blame consultants  
or the industry. Sometimes it is the politicians who hunt around for  
someone who will say what they want to hear. This estimate should  
never have been taken seriously. I also know that in some cases the  
fares changed dramatically from the original assumptions, important  
destinations get deleted, etc.

As I have said before, I am not opposing BRT. But my main point still  
holds, I think. It is pretty unfair to say that a 65 km system  
carrying 600,000 per day is "abysmal" by comparing it to the  
hypothetical performance of BRT that is currently carrying about 0  
passengers, 10 years after both projects were initiated.

I also think it is short-sighted to not take into account the  
long-term impacts on sustainability. This can also justify higher  
initial capital costs. If rail succeeds in supporting densification of  
land use, this benefit will last for perpetuity. This would make a  
good topic for future discussion.

Eric Bruun

  I

Quoting Brendan Finn <etts at indigo.ie>:

> Dear Eric,
>
> When a very large amount of public money is sanctioned based on a   
> projection which turns out to be 5 times higher than the actual   
> out-turn,  there is something seriously wrong. And not just with the  
>  math. Patronage and financial projections for rail-based systems  
> are  very seriously wrong time and time again. Are you telling us  
> that  consultants didn't learn after the first few occasions and are  
>  incapable of revising their methodologies?
>
> A lot of metro and rail projects around the world get approved on   
> dodgy math and wildly-optimistic assumptions which don't come to   
> pass. It is systematic within the sector. This is gross and wilful   
> deception, aided and abetted by companies that present themselves as  
>  professionals. Whether or not it is a nice metro does not excuse   
> such practices.
>
> With best wishes,
>
>
> Brendan.
> _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Brendan Finn          e-mail : etts at indigo.ie          tel : +353.87.2530286
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <bruun at seas.upenn.edu>
> To: "Sujit Patwardhan" <sujitjp at gmail.com>
> Cc: "Global 'South' Sustainable Transport" <sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org>
> Sent: Monday, April 28, 2008 10:59 PM
> Subject: [sustran] Re: BRTS in Delhi
>
>
>> Sujit
>>
>> 3.1 million per day is unrealistic. It always was. That doesn't make
>> Metro a bad idea just because someone made bad predictions.
>>
>> But 600,000 is not insignificant.  You can argue that BRT would be
>> better value for money, but how  much has been built? Both BRT and the
>> Metro were authorized in 1997. One is working and making a valuable
>> contribution, the other still is not. Yet, we keep hearing that BRT
>> can be done quickly and Metros take forever.
>>
>> Eric Bruun
>>
>> Quoting Sujit Patwardhan <sujitjp at gmail.com>:
>>
>>> Dear Eric,
>>>
>>> 65 Kilometers is correct. And the ridership of 600,000 *is* "abysmal" when
>>> compared to the project  projection of over 3.1 million. When projects
>>> involving huge sums (of people's money) are invested in a project meant to
>>> produce specific result it is highly objectionable when the actual figures
>>> fall short not by 5% or 10% but by over 80%.
>>>
>>> This is how most *non viable* projects are cooked up whether they be Mega
>>> Dams or Transportation / Urban infrastructure projects. If the ridership of
>>> 3.1 million seems ridiculous, why did the Govt sanction the project,
>>> particularly when much cheaper options were available?
>>>
>>> I don't think figures of ridership on the Washington Metro are quite
>>> relevant to Asian countries with much higher population densities. Pune
>>> Municipal Transport buses of very poor quality, for instance carry over
>>> 600,000 commuters each day. They do this with about 650 buses which are of
>>> old technology, and in poor condition of upkeep. We feel Pune with about
>>> 2000 modern semi low floor and efficient buses would be able to provide
>>> excellent quality public transport with a citywide network. If the  
>>>  city were
>>> to provide the same coverage by Metro we will need 10 years or more to make
>>> it functional and be certainly driven to bankruptcy. And everyone   
>>> knows that
>>> Bogota's  Transmilenio carries more passengers than the Washington Metro at
>>> a much lower cost .
>>>
>>> So there are serious problems with Metro but politicians love expensive
>>> projects and this is supported by the elites who want to keep up with the
>>> Jones's. They say if Bangkok can have a Metro why not India? Much like the
>>> juvenile boast of "mine's bigger than yours" .
>>> I think we need to move beyond that and face the hard reality of a choice
>>> between car dominated "business as usual" scenario and the alternative "New
>>> Mobility" vision that honours walking, cycling and affordable public
>>> transport system -- best of which today appears to be the BRT.
>>>
>>> --
>>> Sujit
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Sun, Apr 27, 2008 at 7:18 AM, <bruun at seas.upenn.edu> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Aashish
>>>>
>>>> Thanks for the ridership figure. (I think the 65 km is out of date. It
>>>> was 66 kms 3 years ago.)
>>>>
>>>> The reason I was asking is that Sujit said the ridership was
>>>> "abysmal." But 600,000 persons for 66 kms is actually pretty crowded.
>>>> The Washington Metro is 105 miles (over 160 kms) and several of the
>>>> lines are genuinely crush loaded during the rush hours with only
>>>> 700,000 passengers per day. Admittedly, people in the U.S. tend to be
>>>> larger than in India, which also aggravates the crowding.
>>>>
>>>> As for an estimate of 3.1 Million, this seems ridiculous. Of course,
>>>> it isn't going to meet that. Maybe if the fare was assumed to be very
>>>> low and crowding standards were extreme......
>>>>
>>>> Eric
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Quoting Sujit Patwardhan <sujitjp at gmail.com>:
>>>>
>>>> > ---------- Forwarded message ----------
>>>> > From: Sujit Patwardhan <sujitjp at gmail.com>
>>>> > Date: Fri, Apr 25, 2008 at 1:08 PM
>>>> > Subject: Re: [pttfgen:1409] BRTS in Delhi
>>>> > To: pttfgen at googlegroups.com
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> > 25 April 2008
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> > BRT in Delhi
>>>> > =========
>>>> >
>>>> > Yes problems galore and I've been following the reports in the media
>>>> > including the CNN IBN that Ashok Datar was to appear on, but didn't for
>>>> some
>>>> > reason.
>>>> >
>>>> > My take on all this is as follows:
>>>> >
>>>> > Deterioration in traffic has been an ongoing process in many Asian
>>>> cities
>>>> > for the last 3 decades or more. Like the frog sitting in a beaker of
>>>> water
>>>> > being slowly heated it has not had an occasion to "explode". Metro was
>>>> taken
>>>> > up and executed brilliantly by Mr. E Sridharan, with attention to the
>>>> > minutest detail and a free hand guaranteeing "no interference" from
>>>> > politicians. On top of that every lapse and overshooting of budgets as
>>>> well
>>>> > as abysmally poor ridership compared to the projected figures was
>>>> pardoned
>>>> > by a supportive Govt and compensated from additional funds made
>>>> available
>>>> > without delay and cloaked in secrecy.
>>>> >
>>>> > *Delhi Metro project is a marketing triumph that fills every Indian's
>>>> chest
>>>> > with pride*. However, how much travel-coverage (as Public Transport) the
>>>> > very expensive Metro will be able to provide is a big question mark.
>>>> There
>>>> > is also the real possibility that the amount spent on the Metro
>>>> represents
>>>> > lost opportunity for other investments - like libraries and cultural
>>>> > centres, gardens, public spaces and other amenities needed by the city.
>>>> *But
>>>> > in the final analysis we should accept that the Metro is pubic transport
>>>> and
>>>> > hence we must support it* unlike the eight lane highways, flyovers,
>>>> > multistory car parks and other infrastructures being *routinely provided
>>>> by
>>>> > the city as subsidy to ever growing number of car and 2 wheeler owners
>>>> at
>>>> > the cost of other more efficient modes of travel.*
>>>> >
>>>> > BRT unlike the Metro has to deal with the existing conditions on our
>>>> roads.
>>>> > Of indiscipline, rampant irregularities, encroachments, poor
>>>> engineering,
>>>> > lack of understanding about the rights of pedestrians, cyclists and non
>>>> > personal auto users. So if the road surface is poor BRT is blamed, if
>>>> > drivers are indisciplined  BRT is blamed, if a car stalls in the MV lane
>>>> and
>>>> > clogs up the traffic it is perceived as a problem caused by the BRT. If
>>>> the
>>>> > BRT lanes look empty (as indeed they will - considering each bus carries
>>>> > many more people), it is seen as  waste of an expensive resource --
>>>> although
>>>> > not many of these critics complained much all these years about the
>>>> *wasteful
>>>> > use of resources when low occupancy cars filled up these very roads* -
>>>> well
>>>> > before BRT appeared on the scene.
>>>> >
>>>> > So it is clear that BRT planning should have been rooted in outreach and
>>>> > marketing it as a concept that will improve mobility (of people as
>>>> against
>>>> > just near-empty personal vehicles),  will greatly improve access for
>>>> people
>>>> > who are today helpless captive users of uncomfortable and outdated
>>>> buses, it
>>>> > will provide an option to those who are forced to use personal
>>>> transport,
>>>> > not necessarily out of choice but compulsion, and as benefits of a
>>>> growing
>>>> > BRT network becomes visible and better, more comfortable and even A/C
>>>> buses
>>>> > start plying on the BRT corridors, the higher middle class and even the
>>>> rich
>>>> > will have no problem patronizing this mode for purely rational reasons
>>>> of
>>>> > getting a faster, more punctual, comfortable and stress-free mode of
>>>> travel.
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> > This indeed is the situation in many cities in Europe and while we have
>>>> no
>>>> > qualms about importing western concepts  (English medium education,
>>>> wearing
>>>> > suits and tie however uncomfortable they may be in our weather,
>>>> listening to
>>>> > western music, eating the big Mac (ughhh) and even importing
>>>> Cheerleaders
>>>> > for our newly formed Cricket Series) why do we suddenly start protesting
>>>> > when our capital city tries to copy a Western/ Latin American idea of
>>>> > excellent bus system/BRT calling it a foreign concept??????
>>>> >
>>>> > The need is to publicise wider benefits of public transport and to reach
>>>> the
>>>> > *majority *of citizens who are users/potential users of *bus based
>>>> public
>>>> > transport, cycling and walking* in the city. (It is they who will
>>>> benefit
>>>> > most from a good BRT)
>>>> >
>>>> > It is this huge majority of commuters who will have the opportunity of
>>>> > breaking free from the shackles of our present horrendous conditions of
>>>> > urban traffic.
>>>> >
>>>> > So let's not worry too much about the high pitched screams coming from
>>>> the
>>>> > pampered lot of car users (and to some extent from two wheelers)
>>>> protesting
>>>> > against dedicated BRT lanes taking away *their* road space, and let's
>>>> reach
>>>> > the gagged-majority who have been at the receiving end of the stick ever
>>>> > since our cities became car-dominated *and if necessary bring them on
>>>> the
>>>> > roads to block the MV lanes and put the personal cars in their place.
>>>> >
>>>> > *Does this sound extreme? Not when contrasted with the obscene arrogant
>>>> rant
>>>> > coming from Mr Chandan Mitra -  representing the car
>>>> lobby/media/politician
>>>> > clique on the recent CNN IBN TV report about the mess accompanying the
>>>> BRT
>>>> > trials in Delhi.
>>>> >
>>>> > --
>>>> > Sujit
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> > On Fri, Apr 25, 2008 at 10:35 AM, Abhay Patil <abhay.patil at gmail.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>> >
>>>> >> Looks like BRTS in Delhi has reached a flash point.  From the visuals
>>>> (CNN
>>>> >> IBN, newspapers) it looks like Delhi's implementation is no better than
>>>> >> Pune.  Empty BRTS lanes, sloppy junctions, ordinary bus stops and so
>>>> on.  I
>>>> >> don't know what went amiss in the capital.  Sheila Dixit has promised
>>>> that
>>>> >> she would make an all out effort to remove the glitches in a few weeks.
>>>> >> Most important - she has said that she would not hesitate to drop the
>>>> >> project if they are unable to get their act together right away.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> On a positive note - everybody is looking at BRTS now.  On a negative
>>>> note
>>>> >> - it is appears to be quite a tall order to fix it.  Given the ugly
>>>> traffic
>>>> >> jams and vociferousness of folks like journalist MP Chandan Mitra - it
>>>> is
>>>> >> quite likely that the baby would be thrown out with the bath water!
>>>> And,
>>>> >> that would have serious repercussions on BRTS in other cities.  I can
>>>> not
>>>> >> imagine the cacophony that would ensue once that happens...
>>>> >>
>>>> >> -Abhay
>>>> >>
>>>> >>
>




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