[sustran] "When the facts change, sir, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

[Todd Alexander Litman]

If your only objective is to reduce climate 
change emissions, than all three options are 
equally beneficial. However, if you are also 
concerned about other planning objectives (such 
as reducing traffic congestion, road and parking 
facility costs, accidents, consumer costs and 
sprawl; and improved mobility options for 
non-drivers and public fitness and health), then 
some emission reduction strategies are much 
better than others. In general, strategies that 
increase vehicle fuel efficiency or use of 
alternative fuels provide only a couple benefits 
(reduced energy consumption and pollution 
emissions) while those that reduce motor vehicle 
travel by improving travel options, rewarding use 
of more efficient modes, and improving land use 
accessibility, help achieve many benefits.

CAFE standards, which cause motorists to purchase 
more efficient vehicles than they otherwise 
would, tend to stimulate increased vehicle travel 
(since they reduce the per-kilometer cost of 
driving) and so tend to increase problems such as 
traffic congestion, accidents, road and parking 
facility costs and sprawl (see 
http://www.vtpi.org/cafe.pdf ). A far better 
approach is to implement "win-win transportation 
solutions," which are market-based reforms that 
increase transport system efficiency by reducing 
distortions that stimulate economically excessive 
automobile travel (see 
http://www.vtpi.org/winwin.pdf ). These include 
increased fuel taxes, road and parking pricing, 
parking management, pay-as-you-drive vehicle 
insurance and registration fees, least-cost 
transportation planning, and improvements to 
alternative modes (walking, cycling, ridesharing, 
public transit, carsharing, telework and delivery services).

This is actually good news, because it helps 
identify the strategies that are truly best 
overall, and it provides a basis for building 
cooperation among different interest groups. For 
example, if you try to justify substantial 
transportation policy reforms based only on 
climate change emission reduction targets you may 
find only modest support, among people and 
organizations that consumer themselves 
environmentalists. However, if you can show that 
these reforms help achieve other transportation 
planning objectives (congestion and accident 
reductions, and facility cost savings), equity 
objectives (improving transportation 
affordability and mobility options for 
non-drivers), and health objectives (increased 
physical fitness and health), you might be able 
to gain far broader political support.

The challenge we face is that most organizations 
and people apply a narrow approach to problem 
solving - they tend to consider just one problem 
at a time, and tend to focus on competition for 
resources with other interest groups (based on a 
game called, "my problem is more important than 
your problem") rather than searching for 
opportunities for cooperation. We really do have 
solutions that could solve these problems (for 
example, win-win strategies that would achieve 
the Kyoto targets while also achieving other 
economic, social and environmental planning 
objectives, see http://www.vtpi.org/wwclimate.pdf ).


Best wishes,
-Todd Litman



At 11:36 AM 10/28/2007, eric.britton wrote:
>[If you have comments kindly send to 
><mailto:NewMobilityCafe at yahoogroups.com>NewMobilityCafe at yahoogroups.com. 
>Thank you.]
>
>Dear World Wide Colleagues,
>
>You are all very knowledgeable about this, so 
>let me try the following harsh statement in 
>quick summary form on you for size and 
>comment.  Please tell me if and where I am wrong!
>
>There are three things we have to do to get the 
>needed huge reduction of greenhouse gasses 
>coming out of the transportation sector (in 
>general and of course in the cities):
>
>1.     A carbon tax. (Yes, yes. I know all the 
>reasons why this “can’t be done”. But hey! this 
>is the one of the most powerful instruments at 
>our disposal .. and not only that, all the rest 
>are some well-dressed gentleman’s favorite and sweetly profitable playthings)
>
>2.     A strong sharpening of CAFE standards. 
>(We have to squeeze until the pips squeak. That 
>is to say that our objective is not to drive the 
>sources of innovation out of business, but 
>radically to overhaul the nature of their 
>products and businesses, and this as quickly as 
>they can under almost wartime conditions 
>manage.  They will NOT like it, but we will 
>chose the levels that they can with great effort and genius achieve.)
>
>3.     Taking at least half of all the cars off 
>the road. Forever.  (And almost all the cars out 
>of the cities
 and for sure all SOVs).
>
>The best public policy would combine all three 
>of these powerful motors.  The second best 
>(which might be good enough) would combine two of the three.
>
>And that’s all there is to it!
>
>Am I wrong in this?  Please show me.
>
>Eric Britton
>
>
>__._,_.___
>
>_________________________________________________________
>The Kyoto 20/20 Cities Challenge: 
><http://kyotocities.org>http://kyotocities.org
>A single ambitious environmental objective for your city:
>*** A 20% improvement in 20 months, and within budget. ***
>
>Please think twice before posting to the group as a whole
>(It might be that your note is best sent to one person?)
>
>
>
>Your email settings: Individual Email|Traditional
><http://groups.yahoo.com/group/KyotoWorldCities/join;_ylc=X3oDMTJnOTNrNzR1BF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycElkAzE1MDkzNjcwBGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTA2MDY4MgRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNzdG5ncwRzdGltZQMxMTkzNTk2OTU1>Change 
>settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required)
>Change settings via email: 
><mailto:KyotoWorldCities-digest at yahoogroups.com?subject=Email 
>Delivery: Digest>Switch delivery to Daily Digest 
>| 
><mailto:KyotoWorldCities-fullfeatured at yahoogroups.com?subject=Change 
>Delivery Format: Fully Featured>Switch to Fully Featured
><http://groups.yahoo.com/group/KyotoWorldCities;_ylc=X3oDMTJlMDBmNTdlBF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycElkAzE1MDkzNjcwBGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTA2MDY4MgRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNocGYEc3RpbWUDMTE5MzU5Njk1NQ-->Visit 
>Your Group | 
><http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>Yahoo! Groups 
>Terms of Use | 
><mailto:KyotoWorldCities-unsubscribe at yahoogroups.com?subject=Unsubscribe>Unsubscribe 
>
>
>__,_._,___


Sincerely,
Todd Alexander Litman
Victoria Transport Policy Institute (www.vtpi.org)
litman at vtpi.org
Phone & Fax 250-360-1560
1250 Rudlin Street, Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, CANADA
“Efficiency - Equity - Clarity”