[sustran] Re: Token efforts we know areuseless...]

[Todd Alexander Litman]

The values Schipper cites are short-run effects; long-run effects are 
probably two or three times higher, as lower per-mile vehicle 
operating costs affect longer term decisions such as where people 
live and work. For more information see the "Rebound Effects" chapter 
of our Online TDM Encyclopedia (http://www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm64.htm ).

If the only problems we are concerned about are excessive energy 
consumptions and associated pollution emission, then shifting to more 
efficient and alternative fuel vehicles may be reasonable solutions, 
despite the rebound effects, since there is still a substantial net 
reduction in energy use.

However, because of these rebound effects, energy savings benefits 
are offset, at least to some degree, by increases in traffic 
congestion, road and parking facility costs, traffic accidents and 
sprawl. Described in a more positive way, a liter of fuel saved by 
reducing vehicle travel is worth far more (about an order of 
magnitude more according to my analysis) than an liter saved by 
increasing energy efficiency or alternative fuels because reduced 
mileage provides many other economic, social and environmental 
benefits, including congestion reduction, road and parking facility 
cost savings, consumer savings, increased safety and health, and more 
efficient land use development. For discussion of this issue see my 
paper, "Efficient Vehicles Versus Efficient Transportation: Comparing 
Transportation Energy Conservation Strategies", published in 
Transport Policy, Volume 12, Issue 2, March 2005, Pages 121-129, and 
available at http://www.vtpi.org/cafe.pdf .

We have identified a number of "Win-Win" transportation solutions, 
which are policy reforms based on market principles, which help 
achieve economic, social and environmental planning objectives by 
correcting existing market distortions what result in economically 
excessive motor vehicle traffic (see http://www.vtpi.org/winwin.pdf 
). Our research indicates that in a more efficient market, consumers 
would choose to reduce their vehicle travel by about a third, rely 
more on alternative modes, choose more accessible communities, and be 
far better off overall as a result (see http://www.vtpi.org/sotpm.pdf ).

The best way to encourage both efficient vehicles and efficient 
transportation is to raise fuel taxes. By stimulating more driving, 
subsidizing hybrid vehicles, hyper cars and alternative fuels make 
other problems worse. Biofuel subsidies are particularly misguided, 
except perhaps for ethanol used to fuel walking and cycling, although 
I prefer mine undistilled.


Best wishes,
-Todd Litman


At 04:50 AM 10/23/2007, Lee Schipper wrote:
>In wealthy countries, the rebound effect of more vehicle efficiency 
>on vehicle use is between 5% (US) and 20% EUrope...Kindly see the 
>June 2000 issue of Energy Policy (which I edited) on the rebound in general.
>
>
>Lee Schipper
>Director of Research, EMBARQ
> >From Oct 1, Visiting Scholar,
>UC Transportation Center
>UC Berkeley, CA
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: sustran-discuss-bounces+schipper=wri.org at list.jca.apc.org on 
>behalf of Todd Edelman, Green Idea Factory
>Sent: Tue 10/23/2007 6:57 AM
>To: jeroen.verhoeven at foeeurope.org
>Cc: kyle3054 at iprimus.com.au; ianfiddies at hotmail.com; 
>lievin.chemin at webage.be; Mari Jussi; ben at bralvzw.be; Nina Renshaw; 
>Global 'South' Sustainable Transport
>Subject: [sustran] Re: [Fwd: [carfree_cities] Token efforts we know 
>areuseless...]
>
>Hi Jeroen and everyone,
>
>Jeroen Verhoeven wrote:
> > Hi Todd,
> >
> > I read your e-mail and I indeed one can say in hundreds of ways the
> > same argument over and over again, but it always stays the same
> > argument. And I heard the argument hundreds of times before.
> >
> > We need increased fuel efficiency AND to reduce car use.
>OF course!
> > Why?


Sincerely,
Todd Alexander Litman
Victoria Transport Policy Institute (www.vtpi.org)
litman at vtpi.org
Phone & Fax 250-360-1560
1250 Rudlin Street, Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, CANADA
"Efficiency - Equity - Clarity"