[sustran] Velib' costs - some conceptual "arithmetic" for your eyes and brains to improve on

[Eric Britton]

>> p.s. Could someone confirm Lloyd's estimate of Velib costing EUR 1
million to install in Paris? That figure seems low, but, if true, it is
about half of the price of ONE new tram or light-rail vehicle.<<

 

Hmm. Okay. That’s a pretty good number for starters; it makes a certain kind of sense, as Lloyd as said in putting it in front of us for comment.  

 

But let me run the following through you all together with a certain number of friends who are directly involved in various bits of the city bike business in different places – and invite you to come back to share your comments, etc. on this. We can perhaps  in this way stumble toward if not an exact truth at least a broad understanding of what this is supposed to be all about. The real bottom line. 

 

In the last months I have in our interviews for the Vélib’ portion of our Greening of Paris project run into  figures in various places which run from € 20 to 80 million for the 20k bikes plus infrastructure + year one operations.  My insider sources in Paris lean toward the former, but the only one who really knows is JCD, and the nature of their contract keeps their numbers outside of prying eyes.

 

Which by the way is why in our just-about to be completed Policy Brief on Vélib’ , we are strongly supporting the argument for a complete separation of the two contacts: one for the public amenity, another for the outdoor advertising, both with clear specs and as much transparency as you can wring from the implementing partner.  (Somebody please tell this to the folks in San Francisco before they sign that contract, though I am rather sure they have already figured that one out for themselves.)

 

If you play a bit with the numbers we know and based on the stats which are taking shape, you can see over on the benefits end that there has to be some very considerable  advantages to the city and its people if we get 20,000 bikes x 10 trips/day (minimum I would say) x 365. Let’s see that’s something like 70 million healthy low-fat city-friendly carbon-free trips per year.  Hmm. Let’s keep playing (which I guess I am free to do since I am not a transportation scientist). 

 

Let’s now wander briefly over to the revenues side a bit, and assume that this project is as Lloyd has so well suggested a thoroughly public endeavor. (BTW, Denis Baupin who is just about the most important single shaker behind this project in Paris is talking about the “municipalization"  of this and other public services”). 

 

If we assume say 500,000 annual subscribers at € 30/yr., this gives us € 1.5 MM in our pot.  And, just for fun, let’s kick in a modest € 500k for other rental revenues over the year (I am only wildly guessing). Not a huge number certainly, but one that can make a bit of a dent at the annual operating costs of keeping those 20k bikes on the street.

 

Anybody who takes a public bike is getting amenity, life quality and certainly economic value out of it – which should warm any mayor’s heart – as well as the sheer mobility values out of it.  And what we know is that most people hop onto a bus or a public bike not for the joy of having the wind stream through their flowing hair, but because they need to access something. Which is an important argument if anyone tries to diminish the value of these trips saying that they have been “created” by the new supply and would not have taken otherwise. So what? That’s not the point. These good people (that’s you and me BTW) are hopping on their bikes because they have a purpose in mind and a way of getting the job done that they chose to make use of. That’s the bottom line.  

 

Here’s another conceptual number for you. Suppose a cold start 3 km car trip in the day has external costs to the community and the planet on the order of, say, € 1.5 each. And that, say again, something on the order of 2% of our total 70 MM bike trips are replacing one of those cars. Well, that’s another non-negligible € 2MM in our kitty. 

 

Etc. etc. 

 

Comments? Better stabs at this? Howls of laughter because this is not transportation science?

 

Go for it!

 

Eric Britton

Collaborative Problem Solving on The Commons

Vélib’ and The Greening of Paris ready for your comments at http://www.invent.newmobility.org