[sustran] Re: "exhaustible resources or exhausted economists?"

[Zvi Leve]

Thanks Lee - that covers oil as an energy input. I was thinking more 
about oil as an input to plastics and packaging as opposed to polyester 
knits.  As far as I know, there is not an obvious replacement for these 
uses and presumably the end product will have some use far longer than 
it took to burn the oil as an energy source.

And what about energy consumption for air conditioning? Surely this is 
sky-rocketing in the developing asian countries! How does the growth in 
home-energy consumption compare with that of the transport sector?

Cheers,

Zvi

Lee Schipper wrote:
> At $100/bbl we're beginning to fall away from using oil ..natural gas is
> next. With the chances
> Of real action on carbon looming big, we may see a serious (i.e.,
> $100/ton carbon) tax on carbon. But the world's economy keeps growing,
> putting more cars on the road and connecting more people to modern
> electricity, gas, and/or LPG supplies. I think the growth from this
> expansion can be cut drastically.
>
> What is happening now is in part letting it stay in the ground, in part
> demand not growing as it would have, in part some caution on the part of
> multinational fuel suppliers who realize we do live in a (hydro)-carbon
> constrained world. Today's generation of mostly carbon intensive "bio"
> fuels doesn't make it, and many are worried that fuel-scale exploitation
> of biomass in Asia and Africa will simply ruin those places. 
>
> Is oil supply, i.e, the RATE of exploitation, peaking. I don't know and
> it doesn't really matter. CO2 is a good enough reason to slow the rise
> and begin the fall in use of hydrocarbons, period. My own view is that
> there are trillions of barrels of oil left, but now rather than the
> overall marginal cost of getting that oil falling (as in OPEC
> countries), it is rising, albeit with some of that rising cost coming
> from a very low base (the OPEC countries) and some from very high cost
> countries like the US.
>
> But while oil is an input to things, so is natural gas or (ugh) coal.
> More important, so is labor, capital, water, knowledge.  What is vital
> is not oil per se but high-grade stored energy (or more correctly
> exergy). I suspect
> That air travel and chemicals are some of the most important uses of the
> resources of exergy. While chemicals can be made from natural gas, air
> travel has not yet found anything like jet kerosene for a combination of
> high energy./weight, relative safety of handling, and relative
> abundance. Not surprisingly defense interest are searching for bio fuels
> alternatives.
>
> And we can argue whether some of the things (polyster knits instead of
> wool, etc) represents the use of fossil fuels we want to save oil
> for....
>
> The only way out is to reduce the need for using these fuels, i.e., cut
> the whole problem down to size. I think that can be done, although
> admittedly the US is leading the charge to the rear in its present
> policies.  Particularly dangerous is subsidizing alternatives like
> farmer corn-based ethanol rather than letting fossil fuel prices rise
> even more to reflect the alleged "need" for these alternatives, to
> reflect carbon dangers, etc. when you subsidize fuels you get more fuel
> and more car use and more waste in general.
>
> I don't know how much more I can say. 
>
> Lee Schipper
> Director of Research,
> EMBARQ the WRI Center for  Sustainable Transport
> www.embarq.wri.org
> and
> Visiting Scholar,
> Univ of Calif Transport Center
> Berkeley CA
> www.uctc.net
> skype: mrmeter
> 510 642 6889
> 202 262 7476
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: sustran-discuss-bounces+schipper=wri.org at list.jca.apc.org
> [mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+schipper=wri.org at list.jca.apc.org] On
> Behalf Of Lee Schipper
> Sent: Wednesday, November 21, 2007 3:29 PM
> To: Zvi Leve
> Cc: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
> Subject: [sustran] Re: "In my view you have no place asking a
> questionlike this since Shell "
>
> My Ph D is in astrophysics, my BA in Music my work in energy and
> transport economics.
> So would you believe me?
>
> Lee Schipper
> Director of Research,
> EMBARQ the WRI Center for  Sustainable Transport
> www.embarq.wri.org
> and
> Visiting Scholar,
> Univ of Calif Transport Center
> Berkeley CA
> www.uctc.net
> skype: mrmeter
> 510 642 6889
> 202 262 7476
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Zvi Leve [mailto:zvi at inro.ca] 
> Sent: Wednesday, November 21, 2007 3:27 PM
> To: Lee Schipper
> Cc: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
> Subject: Re: [sustran] Re: "In my view you have no place asking a
> question like this since Shell "
>
> Lee, you are an economist, correct? Perhaps you can  "enlighten" me a 
> bit on the economics of non-renewable resources. Why should we be 
> falling all over ourselves to "exploit these resources" as quickly as 
> possible? I would think that leaving them in the ground and thereby 
> letting the value increase as it becomes more and more scarce could also
>
> be a 'profitable' business alternative. Am I missing something?
>
> One of my friends often reminds me that oil is a crucial input to almost
>
> everything in modern society. Burning it to propel our vehicles is a 
> rather wasteful use of such an important resource!
>
> Zvi
>
> Lee Schipper wrote:
>   
>> At the main event, Niel Golightly, VP of Shell for Sustainability,
>>     
> stood
>   
>> up before the group, and said "buy less of our product".
>>
>>  
>>     
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