[sustran] Re: Skies turn grey in Ulan Bator

[Sarath Guttikunda]

Dear All,

I was in UB in June, 2006 to conduct a preliminary assessment of the current
AQ activities and emissions. The urban planning commission in UB conducted a
study last year which concluded ~90% coming from Gers and rest from
transport (~7%) and industry (~3%).. not sure of the exact proportion, but
that's the ball park. Gers in general are a major contributor given the high
altitude of the area, valley like terrain which traps all the pollutants in
situ, and low inversion layer which is very prevalent in the cold
conditions. This makes Gers the prominent source. On the other hand, it
makes a lot of difference where you take these measurements. Closer to the
gers, higher the contribution of those sources to the measured value - give
and take some dispersion of pollutants from the neighborhoods. In this
study, all the pollutants were combined together, which is not an usual
procedure. That's the official assessment.

Overall, motor vehicles are a major contributor, along with Gers increasing
coal consumption. Given the trend in the number of vehicles on the road,
their contribution is bound to increase several folds.. including indirect
pollution from vehicles.. the fugitive dust from the roads. Given the dry
conditions in UB, there is a lot of tendency for higher resuspension of dust
on the roads. Ozone is also increasingly becoming a problem, but the
monitoring system is limited in its capacity.

Now, there is also an Air Quality Management Bureau (AQMB), which is in its
infancy and will take some effort and collaboration from the international
agencies to start and study some projects. Currently, a full scale study to
inventorize the multiple sources and multiple pollutants in a co-benefit and
integrated framework is yet to be undertaken. There has been some rough
estimates in the past, but there is a growing need and demand from the
locals to establish a credible knowledge base, which hopefully will happen
soon.

Programs like Efficient stoves for Gers, reducing coal consumption at power
and industrial level - by reducing elec losses, will be contributing to
reducing air pollutants and GHGs, but how much and how is a question. There
are some recent publications on Indoor Air Pollution in Gers and the
efficient stove program.

with regards,
Sarath

-- 

Sarath Guttikunda
New Delhi, India
Email: sguttikunda at gmail.com

On 2/20/07, Brendan Finn <etts at indigo.ie> wrote:
>
>  The challenges in Ulaanbaatar are complex. As in many problem cities, it
> is has taken quite some time and many fluffed decisions to get to this
> point, so it won't be easy to resolve it either. There are a few key
> factors :
>
> a) Ulaanbaatar has grown rapidly over the past few decades, and now has
> more than one third of the entire population of Mongolia (c. 1 million out
> of less than 3 million people). This has been mostly migration from the
> countryside, but also from mining towns and other small population centres.
> There are no other counter-balancing urban centres of note.
>
> b) There is a legacy stock of Soviet-era apartments, but the bulk of the
> growth has been in "ger settlements". A "Ger" ('yurt' in other countries) is
> a felt-covered solid tent structures normally used in the countryside, and a
> very effective way to survive the harsh winters. No-one had foreseen
> settlements of thousands and thousands of these like a giant trailer park
> with individual fenced areas, small muddy lanes, animal husbandry and
> various other characteristics. I believe that about 45% of Ulaanbaatar's
> population is in gers. Mostly, their heating and cooking is done by coal,
> which contributes greatly to the air quality problems, not to mention
> sanitation and other issues.
>
> c) Ulaanbaatar has a roads structure suited to the Soviet era of buses and
> trucks, a set of relative narrow arteries and key routes, and channelled
> traffic. Once private cars with dispersed movement patterns hit it, it
> rapidly congested. It was evident in 1995-6 how it was going to turn out,
> but our recommendations to establish bus priority before it was too late
> (along with many other measures) were ignored. I haven't been there in some
> time, but I believe it is now heavily congested.
>
> d) The bus and trolleybus network - which in 1995-6 was fairly good but
> with aged rolling stock - has been seriously eroded. As I understand it, the
> minibuses have taken a very large share of the public transport market,
> extracting seriously from the large bus network, and contributing to the
> congestion. They are probably the only practical means of serving the ger
> settlements. The buses received from Korea and Japan in 1995-6 are now at
> the end of their viable life, and it's not certain what happens next.
>
> e) The topography of Ulaanbaatar is also a factor, being on a river plan
> between high ground to north and south. In the absence of wind, you can get
> a nasty build-up of emissions, and in sunny weather this can also lead to
> photochemical smog and low-level ozone. I don't know if the big coal-fired
> power plant on the west side of the city is still in service, but ten years
> ago it was a nasty addition to the problem except in summer when it shut
> down for maintenance.
>
> I believe that some of the international agencies are getting active there
> on transportation and air quality issues, hopefully they will make some
> contribution, but I think the problems go deep into the migration of
> population into Ulaanbaatar, the lack of alternative employment centres, and
> the now-embedded ger settlement population who probably do not have the
> lifeskills to live outside their current environment.
>
> I hope this is of some assistance to anyone looking at Ulaanbaatar's
> challenges.
>
> With best wishes,
>
>
> Brendan Finn.
>
> _____________________________________________________________________________________
> From Brendan Finn, ETTS Ltd.   e-mail : etts at indigo.ie   tel :
> +353.87.2530286
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>  *From:* Green Idea Factory <edelman at greenidea.info>
> *To:* Global 'South' Sustainable Transport<sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org>
> *Sent:* Tuesday, February 20, 2007 10:35 AM
> *Subject:* [sustran] Skies turn grey in Ulan Bator
>
> There are lots of reasons besides increased automobile use for Ulan
> Bator's descent into EGH (economic growth hell), but at bottom of
> article they list measures they are studying to solve the problem... but
> taking the auto- out of automobile does not seem to be one of them
> (okay, maybe it is simply not mentioned here...)
>
> Anyone have more info?
>
>  <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6376203.stm>
>
> --
> --------------------------------------------
>
> Todd Edelman
> Director
> Green Idea Factory
>
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>
> edelman at greenidea.eu
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>
> Green Idea Factory,
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>
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> real sustran-discuss (even if the yahoogroups site makes it seem like you
> can). Apologies for the confusing arrangement.
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> equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries
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