[sustran] Re: Fwd: Event: Getting the climate right for transport

[Todd Alexander Litman]

Last week I attended the National Renewable 
Energy Laboratory (NREL) Energy Analysis Forum in 
Golden, Colorado 
(http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/news.html ), where 
leading North American energy analysts shared the 
latest thinking concerning  greenhouse gas 
emission reduction strategies and legislation, 
much of which involves emission cap and trade 
programs 
(http://www.rff.org/rff/News/Releases/2007Releases/loader.cfm?url=/commonspot/security/getfile.cfm&PageID=31222 
). Similarly, a recent report by McKinsey, 
"Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much 
At What Cost" 
(http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/greenhousegas.asp 
) estimates the economic costs of achieving emission reduction targets.

Virtually all these analyses are biased against 
mobility management (various strategies that 
increase transport system efficiency by improving 
mobility options, encouraging use of more 
efficient modes, and reducing the need to travel), for the following reasons:

* Co-benefits are ignored. Current analysis gives 
virtually no consideration to benefits such as 
reduced traffic congestion, road and parking cost 
savings, consumer savings, reduced traffic risk, 
improved mobility for non-drivers, and improved 
public health, although these benefits are often 
larger in total value than emission reduction 
benefits (see http://www.vtpi.org/tdm and 
www.ap-net.org/docs/16th_seminar/huizenga_caiasia_special.pdf ).

* Current analysis generally ignores the 
additional external costs that result when 
increased vehicle fuel efficiency and subsidized 
alternative fuels stimulates additional vehicle 
travel, called a "rebound effect" (see 
http://www.vtpi.org/cafe.pdf and 
http://www.rff.org/documents/RFF-DP-04-53.pdf ).

* Mobility management emission reductions are 
considered difficult to predict. Although case 
studies and models are available for many of 
these strategies (see for example, case studies 
in http://www.vtpi.org/tdm and the TRIMMS Model 
at http://www.nctr.usf.edu/abstracts/abs77704.htm 
), such models are not widely available or designed for energy planning.

* Mobility management programs are considered 
difficult to implement. Such programs often 
involve multiple stakeholders, such as regional 
and local governments, employers and developers, 
and various special interest groups. Even PAYD, a 
relatively simple strategy, requires cooperation 
of insurance regulators, insurance companies, and 
various special interest groups. As a result, 
they tend to seem difficult and risky compared 
with other emission reduction strategies that 
only require changes to utility operations, fuel production or vehicle designs.

* Analysis often assume that current transport 
patterns are economically optimal and any 
reduction in vehicle travel harms consumers and 
the economy. This ignores various market 
distortions that stimulate motor vehicle travel, 
and the benefits to consumers and the economy of 
many mobility management strategies 
(<http://www.vtpi.org/distortions_BPJ.pdf>www.vtpi.org/distortions_BPJ.pdf 
). With improved travel options and efficient 
incentives travel reductions reflect low-value 
vehicle-miles that consumers willingly forego in 
exchange for  cost savings. In a more optimal 
market, with efficient  road, parking and vehicle 
insurance pricing, and more optimal planning 
practices, motorists would drive significantly 
less and be better off overall (http://www.vtpi.org/sotpm.pdf ).


Described differently, there are two general 
approaches to reducing transportation emissions: 
reduce emission rates per vehicle-kilometer or 
reduce total vehicle-travel. The first generally 
seems easier, because it simply requires changing 
fuels or vehicle design, but, if done correctly, 
the second provides far more total benefits. As a 
result, significant emission reductions can be 
achieved with negative costs (they provide net economic benefits).

Due to these factors, currently proposed emission 
reduction programs will not implement mobility 
management as much as optimal and so will fail to 
achieve other important benefits such as 
congestion reductions, crash reductions, consumer 
savings and equity objectives 
(http://www.vtpi.org/wwclimate.pdf ). A truly 
sustainable transportation system requires more 
than simply reducing consumption of fossil fuels, 
it requires creating a more efficient 
transportation system. It will be up to those of 
us who understand the wider value of mobility 
management to educate decision makers about their 
full benefits and overcome barriers, so they can 
be implemented as much as justified.

Please let me know if you have comments or questions.


Best wishes,
-Todd Litman

At 11:06 PM 12/1/2007, Paul Barter wrote:
>Trying to forward this message which the list blocked for some reason.
>Paul
>
>---------- Forwarded message ----------
>From: Carlosfelipe Pardo <carlosfpardo at gmail.com>
>To: Global 'South' Sustainable Transport <sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org>
>Date: Sat, 01 Dec 2007 18:05:30 -0500
>Subject: Event: Getting the climate right for transport
>  Transport side event at COP 13, Bali Indonesia
>Organized by TRL/GTZ, UITP, UIC, ITPS
>
>The German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) will host a side event titled "Getting
>the climate right for transport" at the United Nations Climate Change
>Conference (COP 13) in Bali. The event will be in cooperation with the
>Transport Research Laboratory (UK), UITP, UIC and Institution for Transport
>Policy Studies (Japan).
>
>The event will discuss future pathways to a more sustainable transport
>system along with options for decision-makers to integrate climate change
>mitigation measures into the transport sector.
>
>The event will take place on 7th and 8th December, 2007 from 1 to 3 pm in
>the Tidal Room at the Grand Hyatt Hotel.
>
>The event will combine practical as well as methodological approaches with
>actual experience on sustainable transportation. The draft program is on our
>SUTP website at www.sutp.org .
>
>At this event Mr. Manfred Breithaupt (GTZ) and Mr. Holger Dalkmann (TRL)
>will present the new sourcebook module titled "Transport and Climate
>Change", which is the latest publication in the GTZ Sustainable Urban
>Transport series, and discuss available instruments to reduce carbon dioxide
>emissions in the transport sector.
>
>The module summarises the challenges that climate change mitigation has to
>face in the transport sector and presents the major options and instruments
>available to deal with them. The module also explains the various
>sustainable transport policy and planning options and sketches out their
>potential for reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
>With the new module, the GTZ Sustainable Urban Transport Sourcebook now has
>26 modules focussing on various issues of transportation. All the modules
>are available to download from the SUTP websites at no cost (
>http://www.sutp.org and http://www.sutp.cn for Chinese users).
>
>--
>Carlosfelipe Pardo
>Coordinador de Proyecto- Project Coordinator
>GTZ - Proyecto de Transporte Sostenible (SUTP, SUTP-LAC)
>Cl 93A # 14-17 of 708
>Bogotá D.C., Colombia
>Tel/fax:  +57 (1) 236 2309  Mobile: +57 (3) 15 296 0662
>carlos.pardo at sutp.org   www.sutp.org
>--------------------------------------------------------
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Sincerely,
Todd Alexander Litman
Victoria Transport Policy Institute (www.vtpi.org)
litman at vtpi.org
Phone & Fax 250-360-1560
1250 Rudlin Street, Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, CANADA
“Efficiency - Equity - Clarity”