[sustran] Re: FWD:Europe: Commuting Faster in Suburbs than Cities

[Todd Alexander Litman]

Thank you for sharing this. Cox is a master of propaganda and it's 
good to be reminded of the sort of messages he produces. His analysis 
is inaccurate and dishonest, but persuasive. For example, he fails to 
account for important confounding factors or discuss alternative 
interpretations. He assumes that correlation reflects causation, at 
least when it in his interest. He never (as far as I know) publishes 
in peer-review journals, and so his claims are never evaluated by 
independent experts. Let me highlight a few misrepresentations in his claims:

First, it is simply wrong to assume that "sprawl" and "suburb" are 
interchangable. Smart growth is not anti-suburb, that is, it is not 
opposed to the geographic expansion of cities, it is concerned with 
the type of development. Suburbs can be well designed to be complete 
communities, with multi-modal transportation systems, or they can be 
automobile-dependent sprawl.

Commute trip time is not itself a primary transportation efficiency 
indicator, since commutes only represent only about 30% of total 
travel time, and there are other geographic factors that affect 
commute time. In particular, commute travel time tends to increase in 
larger urban areas with higher level jobs (the sort of specialized 
jobs that are concentrated in cities).

Other studies indicate that per capita daily minutes of driving 
decrease with urbanization and smart growth. See for example Lawson's 
paper, "The Urban Structure and Personal Travel: An Analysis of 
Portland, or Data and Some National and International Data, 
(http://www.demographia.com/dib-smg.htm , see table 18). Lawrence 
Frank, Brian Stone Jr. and William Bachman ("Linking Land Use with 
Household Vehicle Emissions in the Central Puget Sound: 
Methodological Framework and Findings," Transportation Research D, 
Vol. 5, No. 3, May 2000, pp. 173-196.) found that increases in 
household and employment density, and street connectivity all tend to 
reduce vehicle mileage, travel time, trips and cold starts, and as a 
result tend to reduce air pollution emissions.

Cox claims that density increases congestion and pollution, measured 
per square mile, an absurd reference unit. Although it is true that 
the intensity of congestion increases with density, per capita 
congestion delays decline, since travel distances are shorter and 
people have more travel alternatives. Similarly, per capita air 
pollution emissions decline with density and transportation 
diversity. You can tell that Cox's claims are propaganda because he 
never explains why he choose a particular unit of measurement or how 
changes in such units would affect his results.

For more discussion see "Land Use Impacts on Transportation" 
(http://www.vtpi.org/landtravel.pdf ), "Evaluating Criticism of Smart 
Growth" (http://www.vtpi.org/sgcritics.pdf ) and "Congestion Costs" 
(http://www.vtpi.org/tca/tca0505.pdf , which discusses how different 
ways of measuring congestion costs result in different conclusions).


Best wishes,
-Todd Litman


At 09:33 AM 9/30/2006, Daryl Oster wrote:
>Subject: Europe: Commuting Faster in Suburbs than Cities
>
>Commentary:
>http://www.fromtheheartland.org/blog/2006/09/europe_commuting_faster_in_sub.
>php#more
>Data:http://www.publicpurpose.com/ut-eu15-jtwtime2001.htm
>
>Europe: Commuting Faster in Suburbs than Cities
>
>There are few public policy issues more driven my myth than land use and the
>currently fashionable strategies of "smart growth" or "urban consolidation."
>Virtually all of the arguments made in support of smart growth's
>densification and land restriction policies melt away when subjected to the
>light of scrutiny. <http://www.demographia.com/dib-smg.htm>  Now data shows
>that European work trip travel times for suburban residents are less than
>those of city residents, which is the opposite of claims by smart growth
>advocates.
>
>Further evidence of this is provided by an analysis of Western European work
>trip travel times. The anti-suburban smart growth theorists often suggest
>that cities should artificially constrained in their expansion because
>suburban areas put people farther away from their jobs and thus force people
>to spend more time traveling to work.
>
>Estimates based upon data from the European Union Urban Audit indicates that
>commutes by suburban residents are faster than commutes by city (core)
>residents <http://www.publicpurpose.com/ut-eu15-jtwtime2001.htm> . that the
>average work trip travel time for suburban residents is 23 minutes, one-way.
>This is five minutes less each way that the central city estimate of 28
>minutes. Of course, the reasons that suburbanites can get to their jobs more
>quickly are that lower densities mean less traffic congestion (contrary to
>smart growth claims) and that jobs have followed people to the suburbs.
>Doubtless, urban planners who are more inclined to believe their conceptions
>than the data will be surprised that this improved jobs-housing balance has
>occurred with little or no direction from the planning profession.
>
>Land use policy needs to be based upon fact, rather than the myopic
>perceptions of a small urban elite. The data could not be more clear. Smart
>growth --- the compact city --- means more traffic congestion, more intense
>air pollution and longer travel times. This, of course, is just the
>beginning. Smart growth also means significantly reduced housing
>affordability <http://www.demographia.com/dhi-ix2005q3.pdf> , a
>redistribution of wealth from lower and middle income households to the more
>affluent and, as a result, the likelihood of future greater poverty and less
>economic growth.
>
>--
>Wendell Cox
>Demographia | Wendell Cox Consultancy - St. Louis Missouri-Illinois
>metropolitan region
>Visiting Professor, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris
>+1.618.632.8507 | +33.6.10.59.59.92
>www.demographia.com | www.publicpurpose.com | www.rentalcartours.net
>"Absent a material threat to other individuals or the community, people
>should be allowed to live and work where and how they like."
>-Lone Mountain Compact
>
>
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Sincerely,
Todd Alexander Litman
Victoria Transport Policy Institute (www.vtpi.org)
litman at vtpi.org
Phone & Fax 250-360-1560
1250 Rudlin Street, Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, CANADA
"Efficiency - Equity - Clarity"

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