[sustran] Re: GREAT dramatic warning about biofuels, but...

[Lee Schipper]

Why do you need a plug in hybrid to get the alleged benefit of the
fuel?

Lee Schipper
Director of Research
EMBARQ, the WRI Center
for Sustainable Transport
Washington DC
+1202 729 7735
www.embarq.wri.org

>>> cvegjl at nus.edu.sg 07/18/06 11:38 PM >>>
Incidentally, there was an article that appeared in Scientific
American
(April 2006) implicitly saying that "plug-in hybrids rule". It claims
that plug-in hybrids can run on a mix of 15% gasoline and 85% biofuel
such as cellulosic ethanol and could travel up to 500miles on one
gallon
of gasoline blended with 5gal of ethanol. Well, where are they then?!
It
was written by Joseph J. Romm and Andrew Frank.

Jojo

-----Original Message-----
From: sustran-discuss-bounces+cvegjl=nus.edu.sg at list.jca.apc.org 
[mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+cvegjl=nus.edu.sg at list.jca.apc.org] On
Behalf Of Lee Schipper
Sent: Monday, July 17, 2006 10:25 PM
To: edelman at greenidea.info; sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org;
carfree_cities at yahoogroups.com 
Subject: [sustran] Re: GREAT dramatic warning about biofuels, but...

Don't be too over enthusiastic about plug in hybrids..why make a
complicated device even more complicated?

>>> edelman at greenidea.info 7/17/2006 10:22 AM >>>
Hi all,

This was really great for me until the very last paragraph.

- T

---


Eco-Economy Update 2006-5
July 13, 2006

SUPERMARKETS AND SERVICE STATIONS NOW COMPETING FOR GRAIN

Lester R. Brown

Cars, not people, will claim most of the increase in world grain
consumption this year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects
that
world grain use will grow by 20 million tons in 2006. Of this, 14
million tons will be used to produce fuel for cars in the United
States,
leaving only 6 million tons to satisfy the world�s growing food
needs.

In agricultural terms, the world appetite for automotive fuel is
insatiable. The grain required to fill a 25-gallon SUV gas tank with
ethanol will feed one person for a year. The grain to fill the tank
every two weeks over a year will feed 26 people.

Investors are jumping on the highly profitable biofuel-bandwagon so
fast
that hardly a day goes by without another ethanol distillery or
biodiesel refinery being announced somewhere in the world. The amount
of
corn used in U.S. ethanol distilleries has tripled in five years,
jumping from
18
million tons in 2001 to an estimated 55 million tons from the 2006
crop.

In some U.S. Corn Belt states, ethanol distilleries are taking over
the
corn supply. In Iowa, a staggering 55 ethanol plants are operating or
have been proposed. Iowa State University economist Bob Wisner
observes
that if all these plants are built, they would use virtually all the
corn grown in Iowa. In South Dakota, a top-ten corn-growing state,
ethanol distilleries are already claiming over half of the corn
harvest.

With so many distilleries being built, livestock and poultry producers
fear there may not be enough corn to produce meat, milk, and eggs. And
since the United States supplies 70 percent of world corn exports,
corn-importing countries are worried about their supply.

Since almost everything we eat can be converted into fuel for
automobiles, including wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, and sugarcane, the
line between the food and energy economies is disappearing.
Historically, food processors and livestock producers that converted
these farm commodities into products for supermarket shelves were the
only buyers. Now there is another group, those buying for the ethanol
distilleries and biodiesel refineries that supply service stations.

As the price of oil climbs, it becomes increasingly profitable to
convert farm commodities into automotive fuel, either ethanol or
biodiesel. In effect, the price of oil becomes the support price for
food commodities.
Whenever the food value of a commodity drops below its fuel value, the
market will convert it into fuel.

Crop-based fuel production is now concentrated in Brazil, the United
States, and Western Europe. The United States and Brazil each produced
over 4 billion gallons (16 billion liters) of ethanol in 2005. While
Brazil uses sugarcane as the feedstock, U.S. distillers use
grain�mostly corn. The 55 million tons of U.S. corn going into
ethanol this year represent nearly one sixth of the country�s
grain harvest but will supply only 3 percent of its automotive fuel.
(For additional data, see
www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2006/Update55_data.htm.)

Brazil, the world�s largest sugar producer and exporter, is now
converting half of its sugar harvest into fuel ethanol. With just 10
percent of the world�s sugar harvest going into ethanol, the
price of sugar has doubled.
Cheap sugar may now be history.

In Europe the emphasis is on producing biodiesel. Last year the
European
Union (EU) produced 1.6 billion gallons of biofuels. Of this, 858
million gallons were biodiesel, produced from vegetable oil, mostly in
Germany and France, and 718 million gallons were ethanol, most of it
distilled from grain in France, Spain, and Germany. Margarine
manufacturers, struggling to compete with subsidized biodiesel
refineries, have asked the European Parliament for help.

In Asia, China and India are both building ethanol distilleries. In
2005, China converted some 2 million tons of grain�mostly corn,
but also some wheat and rice�into ethanol. In India ethanol is
produced largely from sugarcane. Thailand is concentrating on ethanol
from cassava, while Malaysia and Indonesia are investing heavily in
additional palm oil plantations and in new biodiesel refineries.
Within
the last year or so, Malaysia has approved 32 biodiesel refineries,
but
recently has suspended further licensing while it assesses the
adequacy
of palm oil supplies.

The profitability of crop-based fuel production has created an
investment juggernaut. With a U.S. ethanol subsidy of 51¢ per
gallon in effect until 2010, and with oil priced at $70 per barrel,
distilling fuel alcohol from corn promises huge profits for years to
come.

In May 2005, the 100th U.S. ethanol distillery came on line. Seven of
these distilleries are being expanded. Another 34 or so are under
construction and scores more are in the planning stages. The soaring
demand for crop-based fuel is coming when world grain stocks are at
the
lowest level in 34 years and when there are 76 million more people to
feed each year.

The U.S. investment in biofuel production in response to runaway oil
prices is spiraling out of control, threatening to draw grain away
from
the production of beef, pork, poultry, milk, and eggs. And, most
seriously, the vast number of distilleries in operation, under
construction, and in the planning stages threatens to reduce grain
available for direct human consumption. Simply put, the stage is being
set for a head-on collision between the world�s 800 million
affluent automobile owners and food consumers. Given the insatiable
appetite of cars for fuel, higher grain prices appear inevitable. The
only question is when food prices will rise and by how much. Indeed,
in
recent months, wheat and corn prices have risen by one fifth.

For the 2 billion poorest people in the world, many of whom spend half
or more of their income on food, rising grain prices can quickly
become
life threatening. The broader risk is that rising food prices could
spread hunger and generate political instability in low-income
countries
that import grain, such as Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria, and Mexico. This
instability could in turn disrupt global economic progress. If ethanol
distillery demand for grain continues its explosive growth, driving
grain prices to dangerous highs, the U.S. government may have to
intervene in the unfolding global conflict over food between affluent
motorists and low-income consumers.

There are alternatives to using food-based fuels. For example, the
equivalent of the 3 percent gain in automotive fuel supplies from
ethanol could be achieved several times over�and at a fraction
of
the cost�simply by raising auto fuel efficiency standards by 20
percent. Investing in public transport could reduce overall dependence
on cars.

There are other fuel options as well. While there are no alternatives
to
food for people, there is an alternative source of fuel for cars, one
that involves shifting to highly efficient gas-electric hybrid
plug-ins.
This
would enable motorists to do short-distance driving, such as the daily
commute, with electricity. If wind-rich countries such as the United
States, China, and those in Europe invest heavily in wind farms to
feed
cheap electricity into the grid, cars could run primarily on wind
energy, and at the gasoline equivalent of less than $1 a gallon.

#    #   #


Additional data and information sources at www.earthpolicy.org or
contact jlarsen (at) earthpolicy.org

For more in-depth information see Chapters 2 and 10 in Plan B 2.0, at
http://www.earthpolicy.org/Books/PB2/Contents.htm 

For reprint permission contact rjk (at) earthpolicy.org


------------------------------------------------------

Todd Edelman
Director
Green Idea Factory

++420 605 915 970

edelman at greenidea.info 
http://www.worldcarfree.net/onthetrain 

Green Idea Factory,
a member of World Carfree Network



================================================================
SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing
countries
(the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main
focus
is on urban transport policy in Asia.


================================================================
SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing
countries
(the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main
focus
is on urban transport policy in Asia.


================================================================
SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries
(the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main focus
is on urban transport policy in Asia.