[sustran] Re: Forecasting 2045 oil price
Andi Rahmah
andi_rahmah at pelangi.or.id
Fri Oct 7 16:59:12 JST 2005
Dear Mr. Francis Papon,
I'm very interest with your paper about future oil prices, and I'll more
than happy if you send it to me.
Based on your explanation, I suspect that you didn't consider about share of
renewable energy in the market on your prediction.
For example, the rise of oil price in Indonesia has made renewable energy
price more competitive. As the result, growth of demands for biofuel
(biodiesel, biokerosene, and bio gasoline) tends to incline significantly. I
think this situation would be happen in other countries too. So, renewable
energy would be have an important role on the future oil prices.
Best,
Rahmah
_____
From: sustran-discuss-bounces+andi_rahmah=pelangi.or.id at list.jca.apc.org
[mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+andi_rahmah=pelangi.or.id at list.jca.apc.org]
On Behalf Of hitapriya suprayitno
Sent: Jumat; 07 Oktober 2005 6:24
To: Asia and the Pacific sustainable transport
Subject: [sustran] Re: Forecasting 2045 oil price
Cher Mr Francis PAPON,
Je essai de vous encrire en francais, meme si mon clavier reste toujours en
version anglaise. Il me force donc de comettre des erreurs d'ortographe,
sans compter des erreurs cause par ma connaissances tres limite de la langue
francaise.
Je m'interesse tres fortement a votre article sur le previson du prix de
petrole dans le future. Il est relie a mon travail en Indonesia sur la
question de subventione our taxe le petrole en Indonesie. Je vour remercie
beaucoup si vous pourriez m'envoyer votre article au adresse ecrit ci-desous
:
Hitapriya SUPRAYITNO
Jl. Teknik Lingkungan I-10
Surabaya 60111
Indonesia
Finalement, je voudrais vous dire que il est tres fort possible que nous
nous sommes croisse au passe a Paris a l'ENPC. Merci beaucoup de votre
attention.
Hitapriya SUPRAYITNO
Francis Papon <papon at inrets.fr> wrote:
Dear SUSTRAN readers,
I have written a paper about future oil prices. If you are interested,
you can ask me to send it to you, since the list does not accept it as
attached file. Here is the abstract:
Here is proposed an attempt at forecasting 2045 oil prices with
declining oil production. Apart from an oil production series, world
population is the only available input variable. The world economy can
be perfectly modelled with sustained growth in spite of oil decline. On
the contrary, modelling oil price is tricky, showing poor fits, with
population and economy not being significant variables. If included,
time absorbs all explaining power, and jeopardizes the model. The only
remaining explaining variable is oil production growth (or decline)
rate. But unless economy is forced into the model as a denominator, oil
price remains in moderate ranges. Even when the cost of oil as part of
economy is directly considered, one baril of oil should sell between
$50 and $225 in 2045 (in 2005 US dollars).
Such prices surely need adaptations from all sectors to reduce fuel
consumption, but should not change dramatically the picture of traffic
in cities: for example, at current taxation levels in France, a $225
per baril crude oil price would mean only a doubling of current fuel
prices for motorists, which should not be a sufficient deterrent for
those who appreciate showing off excessively big private vehicles in
crowdy cities.
I should be pleased by any comment.
Sincerely Yours,
Francis Papon, mailto:papon at inrets.fr, tel +33 (0)1 4740 7270,
ICPC,INRETS/DEST/EEM/HEGEL-PMG,
Researcher at the Department of Transport Economics and Sociology at
the French National Institute for Transport and Safety Research
INRETS, 2, avenue du General Malleret-Joinville, 94114 Arcueil Cedex,
France
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