[sustran] Re: Forecasting 2045 oil price

[Lee Schipper]

Surely for most of the world other sources of energy and fuels for
vehicles would kick in long before we reached such a high base price
(before taxes)....

>>> papon at inrets.fr 10/6/2005 2:33:19 AM >>>
Dear SUSTRAN readers,

I have written a paper about future oil prices. If you are interested,

you can ask me to send it to you, since the list does not accept it as

attached file. Here is the abstract:

Here is proposed an attempt at forecasting 2045 oil prices with 
declining oil production. Apart from an oil production series, world 
population is the only available input variable. The world economy can

be perfectly modelled with sustained growth in spite of oil decline. On

the contrary, modelling oil price is tricky, showing poor fits, with 
population and economy not being significant variables. If included, 
time absorbs all explaining power, and jeopardizes the model.  The only

remaining explaining variable is oil production growth (or decline) 
rate. But unless economy is forced into the model as a denominator, oil

price remains in moderate ranges. Even when the cost of oil as part of

economy is directly considered, one baril of oil should sell between 
$50 and $225 in 2045 (in 2005 US dollars).

Such prices surely need adaptations from all sectors to reduce fuel 
consumption, but should not change dramatically the picture of traffic

in cities: for example, at current taxation levels in France, a $225 
per baril crude oil price would mean only a doubling of current fuel 
prices for motorists, which should not be a sufficient deterrent for 
those who appreciate showing off excessively big private vehicles in 
crowdy cities.

I should be pleased by any comment.

Sincerely Yours,

Francis Papon, mailto:papon at inrets.fr, tel +33 (0)1 4740 7270, 
ICPC,INRETS/DEST/EEM/HEGEL-PMG,
Researcher at the Department of Transport Economics and Sociology at 
the French National Institute for Transport and Safety Research
INRETS, 2, avenue du General Malleret-Joinville, 94114 Arcueil Cedex, 

France