[sustran] Re: Transportation Modal Choice in Asian Cities

Craig Townsend townsend at alcor.concordia.ca
Mon Jun 27 04:10:16 JST 2005


I'm taking the liberty of posting Jeff Kenworthy's response to the 
exchanges about modal split data to Sustran, because he is not on the list 
but has been collecting data internationally for a long time. While 
correlations, statistical tests, and policy prescriptions made using the 
data collected by Newman/Kenworthy and colleagues/students have been hotly 
debated over the years, I know of no challenges to the quality of the raw 
data. Unfortunately, in the spreadsheet circulated last week some of the 
Newman/Kenworthy data was quoted incorrectly and a major source of accurate 
urban transport data on 17 Asian cities for 1995 was overlooked. Walter 
Hook has wisely asked that the circulated table is not attributed to ITDP.

In the conclusions of the 1999 book referred to in the message below, 
Kenworthy and Laube stress the need for "clearinghouses" with an overview 
role to ensure data consistency and reliability. From a researcher's 
perspective, I would be elated to see high quality data on Asian cities 
compiled routinely by professionals and rigorously checked for accuracy. 
This would take a major, ongoing commitment of resources, probably from a 
multi-lateral institution like the World Bank, a regional multi-lateral 
institution (such as the ADB or the UN-ECLAC as suggested by Lake Sagaris) 
or a research institution like the TRB (as suggested by Setty Pendakur): I 
encourage any move in that direction, as I'm sure most of the people on the 
list would. The problem is that high quality international data has a 
number of characteristics of a public good: the important question is who 
is willing and able to commit the kind of resources required?

Regards,
Craig

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Craig Townsend, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
Concordia University, Department of Geography, Planning and Environment
1455 de Maisonneuve Blvd. West, Montréal, Québec, Canada, H3G 1M8
Tel.: (514) 848-2424 ext. 5191
Fax: (514) 848-2032
Email: townsend at alcor.concordia.ca


>Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 12:57:06 +0800
>Subject: Asian cities modal split data
>From: Jeffrey KENWORTHY <j.kenworthy at murdoch.edu.au>
>To: <aables at adb.org>, Eric Britton <eric.britton at ecoplan.org>
>CC: Craig Townsend <townsend at alcor.concordia.ca>,
>         Paul Barter <paulbarter at nus.edu.sg>,
>         Peter Newman <P.Newman at murdoch.edu.au>
>X-Scanned-By: MIMEDefang 2.44
>X-Status:
>
>
>COMMENTS ON DATA ON ASIAN CITIES MODAL SPLIT
>
>The speadsheet has some problems. I will confine my comments to where I 
>can confidently comment.
>
>One of the key overall problems is that the spreadsheet does not 
>distinguish the trip purposes to which the data apply. There is a big 
>difference between quoting journey-to-work modal split and, for example, 
>all trip purposes. There seems to be no effort to distinguish this at all 
>and yet at least some of the sources specify this.
>
>BANGKOK:
>
>The data shown under reference 3 are for 1990 not 1999. They are for 
>journey to work only. They do not come from Cities and Automobile 
>Dependence which only contained data up to 1980. They are from:
>
>KENWORTHY, J.R. and Laube, F.B. (1999) An International Sourcebook of
>Automobile Dependence in Cities, 1960-1990. University Press of Colorado, 
>Niwot, Boulder, Colorado. 704 pp.
>
>The way the data are reported and the above errors and omissions indicate 
>a certain lack of attention to detail.
>
>The data referenced to Paul Barter for 1990 may need checking. Paul did 
>his PhD with me and  was linked in with the data that Chamlong Poboon 
>collected for his PhD on Bangkok (another of my PhD students). These 1990 
>data are reported in the above reference and the only modal split data for 
>1990 are those incorrectly reported in your table for 1999 (for the 
>journey to work as described above). I do not have Paul's thesis with me. 
>Paul may have collected some additional data on Bangkok, but your table 
>does not specify what trips the data refer to. I suggest to clarify this 
>with Paul Barter (I copy this to him). The year and trip purpose needs to 
>be clarified. Same applies to the 1970 data reported from Paul.
>
>The data reported as being UITP data 2001 from another source is 
>uncertain. Felix Laube and myself developed for the UITP over the 1998 to 
>2000 period the following database published in 2001 with consistent 1995 
>(or 1996 depending on the Census year) data as its basis:
>
>* KENWORTHY, J. and Laube, F. (2001) The Millennium Cities Database for 
>Sustainable Transport. (CDROM Database) International Union (Association) 
>of Public Transport, (UITP), Brussels and Institute for Sustainability and 
>Technology Policy (ISTP), Perth.
>
>This database reports the modal split for ALL TRIPS for 84 cities 
>worldwide, many in Asia (see list end of email).
>
>The Bangkok data for 1995 for all trips reported in this database are as 
>follows:
>
>Private transport: 45.8%
>Public transport: 42.7%
>NMM: 11.5%
>
>Again, the source of these data need to clarified. The UITP has in Rome 
>recently released a limited update of the 2001 database referenced above 
>for a limited number of cities (Jerome Pourbaix). The 2001 released 
>database as already mentioned contained 1995 data. The reported figures 
>under Reference 13 need to be clarified as they are confusing.
>
>BEIJING
>
>Data for all trips from 1995 are as follows (Millennium Cities Database as 
>referenced above).
>
>   * non motorised modes:  47.9%
>   * motorised public modes: 27.8%
>   * motorised private modes: 24.3%
>
>The data reported under reference 3 are interesting since Beijing doesn't 
>even appear in this work of ours and certainly not 1999 since the book 
>appeared in 1989 and contains data only up to 1980.
>
>The modal splits referred to under reference 3 are for 1990 only for the 
>JOURNEY TO WORK. They are from a report we did for the World Bank, the 
>reference of which is:
>
>KENWORTHY, J.R., Laube, F.B., Newman, P.W.G. and Barter, P.A. (1997) 
>Indicators of transport efficiency in 37 global cities. A Report for the 
>World Bank, ISTP, Murdoch University, February.
>
>Just on these two cities alone it is clear that the work done in compiling 
>these data has been a bit lacking in care.
>
>CHENNAI
>
>Again from the Millennium Database for 1995 for all trips purposes:
>
>   * non motorised modes 43.9%
>   * motorised public modes  42.3%
>   * motorised private modes 13.8%
>
>The data sourced to Pucher are close to these but the year needs checking 
>and a check on what trips they represent needs to be made. Refer to John.
>
>GUANGZHOU
>
>Again from the Millennium Database for 1995 for all trips purposes:
>
>   * non motorised modes: 69.3%
>   * motorised public modes: 14.2%
>   * motorised private modes: 16.5%
>
>These data were collected on site in Guangzhou by a Chinese national PhD 
>student for the Millennium Database. I cannot comment on the wide range of 
>other data in your table or for what trip purposes it refers.
>
>HONG KONG
>
>The data reported under 3 are not for the year reported nor from that 
>source: They refer to the Journey to Work only and they are for 1991. They 
>are from:
>
>KENWORTHY, J.R. and Laube, F.B. (1999) An International Sourcebook of
>Automobile Dependence in Cities, 1960-1990. University Press of Colorado, 
>Niwot, Boulder, Colorado. 704 pp.
>
>I can't see any value in the other reported data for Hong Kong unless the 
>the trip purpose to which the data refer are reported. The data attributed 
>to Barter under reference 8 I can check from his thesis, but not right 
>now. Paul could respond in the meantime.
>
>JAKARTA
>
>The same comments apply on the data reported under reference 3 as made for 
>Hong Kong.
>
>Again from the Millennium Database for 1995 for all trips purposes:
>
>* non motorised modes: 46.4%
>* motorised public modes: 25.5%
>* motorised private modes: 28.1%
>
>I do not have time to go into further detail on the other cities in the 
>list, but I have scanned them and the same pattern of comments and 
>problems as above apply. Many can be fixed up and expanded.
>
>SUMMARY
>
>I cannot understand how the spreadsheet provided could omit the Millennium 
>Cities Database from its reference sources. This is a major international 
>publication from the UITP. At least it could have reported the modal split 
>data consistently from this source for all trip purposes for 1995 from the 
>following cities:
>
>  Manila
>  Bangkok
>  Hong Kong
>  Osaka
>  Sapporo
>  Tokyo
>  Beijing
>  Shanghai
>  Guangzhou
>  Bombay
>  Madras
>  Kuala Lumpur
>  Jakarta
>  Taipei
>  Seoul
>  Singapore
>  Ho Chi Minh City
>
>That it did not even seem to know about this source is perhaps an 
>indication that the work has not been done particularly carefully. This is 
>a bit frustrating. Furthermore, the table has many other problems such as 
>incorrect years, incorrect referencing and no distinction between the trip 
>types being referred to.
>
>I suggest that the above Millennium database is purchased from the UITP in 
>Brussels (refer Jerome Pourbaix) and also that the compilers of the table 
>avail themselves of:
>
>Kenworthy, J.R. and Laube, F.B. (1999) An International Sourcebook of
>Automobile Dependence in Cities, 1960-1990. University Press of Colorado, 
>Niwot, Boulder, Colorado. 704 pp.
>
>It is only $US30 from the University Press of Colorado.
>
>I believe that the data in this table can be expanded and its relevance 
>and accuracy and thus usefulness can be greatly improved by attention to 
>the above comments.
>
>I hope this helps.
>
>Please note I will be checking my email only irregularly until July 14 and 
>may not be able to respond further in a timely manner.
>
>--
>Dr Jeff Kenworthy
>Associate Professor in Sustainable Settlements
>Acting Head of School
>Institute for Sustainability and Technology Policy
>Murdoch University
>Murdoch, Western Australia, 6150
>
>Tel 61 8 9360 2876 (W)
>Tel 61 8 9335 6870 (H)
>Fax 61 8 9360 6421 (W)
>
>Email J.Kenworthy at murdoch.edu.au





At 12:06 PM 24/06/2005, you wrote:

>A point of clarification on the Transport Modal Choice in Asian Cities 
>that was just sent around.
>
>Karl just pointed out to me that this table of modal split data was 
>attributed to the Institute for Transport Policy and Development.
>
>Some people might be confused by this.  Our name is the Institute for 
>Transportation and Development Policy, though I believe this attribution 
>refers to us.   We are also not comfortable with this table being 
>attributed to ITDP.
>
>As a favor to CAI Asia, ITDP's intern John Lindsey prepared this table 
>from some data from various sources, in support of CAI Asia's efforts to 
>provide background for a proposal it was preparing for various work to 
>European sources.  While it is a reasonable compliation of what data is 
>available out there, we never intended for this data to be used as an 
>authoritative document, it was never reviewed by any ITDP staff, and we 
>had no idea it was going to be released more broadly.  ITDP is not 
>currently working on a more authoritative assessment of modal split trends 
>in the region, and as such would like our name removed from the attribution.
>
>Collating more accurate modal split data is not a priority for ITDP, and 
>if one is done I agree with Setty Pendakur that a research based 
>institution like TRB, or the CAI Asia itself with techncial review by some 
>experts, would be a more appropriate venue. CAI itself might 
>systematically request this data from its members using a consistent 
>methodology, and then use one or two experts to assess the validity of the 
>results.
>
>regards,
>Walter Hook, Ph.D.
>Executive Director
>Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP)
>127 West 26th Street, Suite 1003
>New York, NY 10001
>Ph:  (212) 629-8001
>Fax: (212) 629-8033
>
>Promoting environmentally sustainable and equitable transportation worldwide
>
>Visit <http://www.itdp.org>http://www.itdp.org
>----- Original Message -----
>From: <mailto:aables at adb.org>aables at adb.org
>To: <mailto:sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org>sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org
>Sent: Thursday, June 23, 2005 4:04 AM
>Subject: [sustran] Transportation Modal Choice in Asian Cities
>
>
>Sent in behalf of Cornie Huizenga
>CAI-Asia
>
>Dear all,
>
>The urban transport sector remains a major contributor to air pollution in 
>Asian cities. Decision makers and development agencies are starting to 
>realize that more active policies are required to address the problems of 
>air pollution, road safety and congestion associated with rapid motorization.
>
>An emerging movement in developed and developing countries is the 
>promotion and improvement of public transportation and non-motorized 
>transport in urban areas. In Asia, there are a number of cities with 
>projects on improving public transportation (Bus Rapid Transit 
>development), non-motorized transportation and pedestrian access. 
>Experience from these cities in developed and developing countries have 
>shown that substantial benefits on urban air quality and traffic 
>congestion can be achieved, not to mention the relatively 'cheaper' cost 
>required in implementing the project.
>
>However, in order to plan effective sustainable urban transport programs 
>and policies it is important to have a good picture of the manner in which 
>the urban transport sector is developing. A frequently heard complaint is 
>that there is no recent overview of modal split data and trends therein 
>for cities in Asia.  The Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities 
>(CAI-Asia),  with the help of other organizations like EMBARQ/WRI Center 
>for Transportation and Environment and the Institute for Transportation 
>and Development Policy (ITDP), has therefore taken the initative to gather 
>updated information on modal split data in selected Asian cities (see 
>attached ). This compilation is also posted online at 
>http://www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia/1412/article-60210.html
>
>
>
>We would like to receive your comments on the data that we have gathered. 
>If you had additional studies please send us copies of the studies. You 
>can also add the information to the table but in that case please send us 
>the complete reference for our information. We are especially interested 
>in trends for individual cities, which have been calculated making use of 
>the same methodology and definitions for the different years.  Some trends 
>can be observed from the data posted but in many cases different 
>definitions and methodologies have been used that make the trends somehow 
>questionable.
>
>We thank you for your cooperation as always. Please send your inputs to 
>Aurora Fe Ables aables at adb.org. We would like to receive them if possible 
>by 30 June, 2005.
>
>
>Best regards,
>
>Cornie Huizenga
>Head of Secretariat
>Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities (CAI-Asia)
>Asian Development Bank
>Tel (632) 632-5047
>Fax (632) 636 2198
>Email chuizenga at adb.org
>http://www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia
>[]
>
>www.adb.org
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