[sustran] Re: Rail or bus

[Walter Hook]

Interesting to note that the French rail and energy giant Alstom, like the
skytrain in bangkok, just declared bankrupcy.

Likely Siemens will buy the power generating sector but monopoly rules in
the EU will prevent merger with Siemens rail division.  The french
government will no doubt try to bail them out if they can get away with not
violating EU rules about govt subsidies.

Alstom is part of the Delhi metro consortium, it provided the signaling
systems.

Bombardier also just had its stock downgraded, indicating problems.

best
walter


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Karl Fjellstrom" <karl at dnet.net.id>
To: "'Asia and the Pacific sustainable transport'"
<sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org>
Sent: Wednesday, May 05, 2004 4:20 AM
Subject: [sustran] Re: Rail or bus


> Dear Alok,
>
> Jonathan's right... For very short trips the fares are similar. (Though
the
> minimum skytrain fare gets you 1 station, the minimum bus fare gets you
> 8km.) But for a normal public transport trip of say 2 to 12km the skytrain
> is a factor of 1.5 to 5 times more expensive than the same length trip by
> a/c bus even with monthly pass discounts for the skytrain factored in.
> Factor in longer bus routes and hence less transfers and the difference is
> even greater. Microbus is a special case as it's a flat 20 baht fare but
> people tend only to use this for long trips so it still works out a lot
> cheaper per km.
>
> Sorry to opine further on such a well informed list, but going back to
where
> we started: we can't simply attribute the skytrain's problems to the
routing
> of the buses, and argue that if this could only be solved everyone could
> then be 'living happily thereafter' as you put it. I only reacted to your
> comments on the fares not to be pedantic but because I've sat through
> presentations by skytrain executives who trot out exactly this kind of
> specious argument and then in the next sentence point out that the govt
> should pay for extensions to the system. E.g. a top skytrain executive
> argued with a straight face in Mar-03 in a presentation that
(paraphrasing)
> the beauty of the skytrain is that this kind of rail system extended
> city-wide means that we can solve Bangkok's urban transport problems
without
> needing to take the politically unpalatable step of restricting cars....
>
> As said, I think the skytrain is a great system even though the operators
> spend so much time in bankruptcy court negotiations, and there may well be
a
> very good case to extend the system with public funds. And I'd support
> skytrain extensions and other rail metro systems in Bangkok provided they
> were based on a proper analysis considering all options (including
bus-based
> options such as BRT).
>
> Best regards, karl
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: sustran-discuss-bounces+karl=dnet.net.id at list.jca.apc.org
> [mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+karl=dnet.net.id at list.jca.apc.org] On
Behalf
> Of Jonathan E. D. Richmond
> Sent: Wednesday, 5 May 2004 11:21 AM
> To: Asia and the Pacific sustainable transport
> Subject: [sustran] Re: Rail or bus
>
>
> On the specifics of fares, the 10 baht fare will only get you about one
> station on Skytrain. Aircon bus rides the length of a more typical 30-40
> baht Skytrain ride cost 10 baht, while nonaircon buses are 4 or 5 baht for
> any trip length. Longer distance bus rides are frequently several times
the
> length of a Skytrain trip.
>
> Discounted Skytrain fares are available for regular users but must be used
> within a month. This means that irregular users -- for example someone who
> might go on a weekend shopping trip -- are discouraged by the highest
fares,
> and the system is also put out of the reach of low-income groups who
> probably wouldn't have the cash to finance a multiride ticket in one go,
> quite apart from the fact that "Every baht counts" to them --Jonathan
>
>
> On Wed, 5 May 2004, Jain Alok wrote:
>
> > Dear Karl,
> >
> > Taking a few comparisons from your previous mail, and checking BTS
> > website for latest ticketing offered, I can summarise the following:
> >
> > Minimum fare for short-distance travel:
> >
> > BMTA air-con buses: 8 baht
> > Microbuses: 20 baht
> > Skytrain: 10 baht
> >
> > Obviously, microbuses would be more expensive for short-distance
> > whereas BMTA a/c buses and Skytrain are comparable.
> >
> > Fares for Long-distance travel:
> >
> > BMTA air-con buses: 18 baht
> > Microbuses: 20 baht
> > Skytrain: 40 baht (although with multiple trip ticket, this could be
> > reduced to 18-25 baht)
> >
> > Yes, skytrain is more expensive than microbuses and BMTA buses when
> > you consider published single journey fare but for regular users the
> > fares are not that different.
> >
> > Apart from different ways of looking at figures, I guess we share the
> > same view with respect to Bangkok.
> >
> > Regards
> > Alok
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Karl Fjellstrom [mailto:karl at dnet.net.id]
> > Sent: Tuesday, May 04, 2004 1:02 PM
> > To: 'Asia and the Pacific sustainable transport'
> > Subject: [sustran] Re: Rail or bus
> >
> >
> > Dear Alok,
> >
> > Thanks for the thoughtful note. Appreciate the chance to bounce ideas
> > around, just as a way to learn and not to advocate a particular
approach.
> > Actually there's a lot to reply to, including your observations of
> > Bogota (you're right, in many ways it has all the advantages of a
> > metro rail system like high capacity, express routes, exclusive ROW,
> > trunk & feeders, but without the main disadvantages of cost and
> > construction time), but for now I'll just reply on your notes on
Bangkok.
> >
> > I think there is an inaccuracy in your point 3 and 4 below where you
> > indicate private sector air con bus services, and informal sector
> > servcies (primarily a/c minivans) have a 'price comparable to the
> > skytrain'. If this were true, then you may be right in some senses
> > that "There is hardly any difference between 3, 4 and skytrain
> > services." But according to my information this isn't true and so the
> argument doesn't hold.....
> >
> > Firstly: for private a/c services there is a fleet of 800 or so
> > microbuses charging a flat 20 baht. But they have very long routes, I
> > don't know exactly but probably more than 20 or 30km avg. And people
> > tend to use them for long rather than short trips. Sometimes even
> > shorter trips by the skytrain would cost double (40 baht). And there
> > are the private a/c buses, around 700 in Jan-03 but rapidly growing.
> > These charge from 8 to 18 baht depending on distance. Again, average
> > routes are long (around 30km!) but a normal fare for a city trip up to
> > 8km is 8 baht. A similar distance on the skytrain is at least triple
> > or quadruple this. It's a similar story for the BMTA (state operator)
> > air con buses, of which there are around 2000. These charge from 12 to
> > 22 baht depending on distance but for the first 8km it's
> > 12 baht, well under half the price of a comparable trip on the skytrain.
> > (Though in all cases for very short trips of course there is much less
> > price difference, as the minimum, 1-station skytrain fare is 10 baht.)
> >
> > Secondly: for the minivans, it's 10 to 43 baht depending on distance,
> > but they tend to have even longer routes, serving outer suburbs. So as
> > well as being much cheaper than the skytrain on a per km basis they
> > also enable less transfers (hence further savings) than would be
> > required if they were forced to use the skytrain for part of the trip.
> >
> > Just one note to add about the 'financiers' and 'bottomline' which you
> > mention. KfW, a major financier of the system, recently wrote off a
> > huge chunk of debt owed by the skytrain operator, since the operator
> > cannot pay back the loan and is struggling just to make the interest
> payments.
> > Ridership now of 300,000+ in 2004 is great, except perhaps when we
> > consider the 1996 projections were for 900,000+ and even the revised
> > projections following the economic crash in '97 were 600,000+ *during
> > the first year of system opening* (back in late '99), with projections
> > for further rapid growth after that.
> >
> > I'm not against the skytrain and I think it's a wonderful service for
> > an important wealthy sector of the market. I think it also helps raise
> > the image of transit in Bangkok. And much more should have been done
> > to better integrate the formal bus services. (This could have
> > preempted the explosion in informal services.) But I am a leery of
> > some of the inflated claims made (often by those with a very strongly
> > vested interest) in using public funds to further expand the skytrain
> > network - or develop other metro rail lines - without even considering
> alernatives.
> >
> > Best rgds, Karl
> >
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>
> -----
>
> Jonathan E. D. Richmond                               02 524-5510 (office)
> Visiting Fellow                               Intl.: 662 524-5510
> Transportation Engineering program
> School of Civil Engineering, Room N260B               02 524-8257 (home)
> Asian Institute of Technology                 Intl.: 662 524-8257
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>
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