[sustran] Re: "The Future Isn't What It Used To Be"

[Daryl Oster]

Todd,

The summary mentions that in 1990 most worked and lived on farms; did you
not mean to say in 1890?

Thanks for mentioning ETT under your heading “New Technologies”.  Bracketing
ETT with old jetpacks and flying cars is unfair, as is the blanket
dismissal.  This is especially true since ETT: increases energy efficiency
by more than a factor of 50, maximizes use of lower cost and alternative
fuel, and improves navigation and vehicle flow.  Clearly jet packs and
flying cars decrease fuel efficiency, and have a narrow dependence on
specialized fuels (as was the case with SST).  

There are at least two possibilities explaining your blanket statement: you
have not fully investigated and understand ETT, or you are attempting to
discredit ETT to protect other agendas.  If you have any criticism of ETT
that supports your view, please be specific.  

As far as the data you seek, Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Ph.D., Hofstra University,
Hempstead, New York, has some good data on shipping costs with a wide time
scale.  I saw the detailed information you seek in graphical form somewhere
on the website: http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/   .   The material is
extensive, I am sorry I do not have time to be more specific as to the exact
page. 

Daryl Oster
(c) 2004  all rights reserved.  ETT, et3, MoPod, "space travel on earth"
e-tube, e-tubes,  and the logos thereof are trademarks and or service marks
of et3.com Inc.  For licensing information contact:    et3 at et3.com ,
www.et3.com  POB 1423, Crystal River FL 34423-1423  (352)257-1310


You wrote:
New Technologies
New technologies may affect future travel demand, but probably not the way
most people
expect. Although some entirely new modes may be developed, such as jetpacks,
evacuated tube transport, and flying cars, their application is likely to be
limited. Most
new transportation technologies are likely to marginally improve the
performance of
existing modes, and many will actually reduce motorized mobility.
As described at the beginning of this paper, many people assume that
transportation
progress consists of newer, faster, more automated modes replacing older,
slower, modes,
but that is not always the case. Many new modes fill niche markets and have
little impact
on overall travel patterns. For example, despite large subsidies and public
support, super
sonic air travel proved commercially unsuccessful and is unlikely to become
available in
the foreseeable future. Segways have yet to become widely used, and are
unlikely to
significantly reduce either driving or walking. Flying cars, if they ever
become available,
will probably have limited applications and do little to reduce problems
such as urban
traffic and parking congestion.


In general, new technologies that reduce the financial, time or discomfort
costs of driving
are likely to increase total vehicle travel, while those that improve travel
alternatives or
implement more efficient pricing will tend to reduce total vehicle travel.
Table 2
categorizes new transportation technologies according to their expected
impacts on
vehicle travel demand. More of those identified are likely to reduce
motorized travel than
are likely to increase it.
Although Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) research initially focused
on
automated highways which probably would increase vehicle travel,
implementation of
this strategy has been slow.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: sustran-discuss-bounces+et3=et3.com at list.jca.apc.org
> [mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+et3=et3.com at list.jca.apc.org] On Behalf Of
> Todd Alexander Litman
> Sent: Monday, December 27, 2004 3:57 PM
> To: sustran-discuss at list.jca.apc.org; WorldTransport at yahoogroups.com;
> UTSG at JISCMAIL.AC.UK; CONS-SPST-SPRAWL-TRANS at LISTS.SIERRACLUB.ORG
> Subject: [sustran] "The Future Isn't What It Used To Be"
> 
> 
> Dear Colleagues,
> 
> I'm writing to let you know about our latest draft publication, "The
> Future
> Isn't What It Used To Be: Changing Trends And Their Implications For
> Transport Planning" (http://www.vtpi.org/future.pdf).
> 
> This paper examines various demographic, economic and market trends that
> affect travel demand, and their implications for transport planning during
> the next century. During Twentieth Century per capita motor vehicle travel
> demand increased by an order of magnitude. Many of the factors that caused
> this growth have peaked in developed countries and are likely to decline.
> This indicates that future transport demand will be increasingly diverse.
> Transport planning can reflect these shifts by reducing emphasis on
> automobile travel and increasing support for alternative modes and smart
> growth development patterns.
> 
> I would appreciate your feedback. Please let me know if you find any
> errors
> or omissions, or if you have any other ideas of factors that affect past
> and future travel demand. Also, please let me know if you know a source of
> good time-series shipping cost data, such as the real cost of transporting
> a ton of freight from New York to London or San Francisco for each decade
> from 1900 to 2000.
> 
> 
> 
> Sincerely,
> Todd Litman, Director
> Victoria Transport Policy Institute
> "Efficiency - Equity - Clarity"
> 1250 Rudlin Street
> Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, Canada
> Phone & Fax: 250-360-1560
> Email: litman at vtpi.org
> Website: http://www.vtpi.org
> 
> 
> 
> --
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