[sustran] "The Future Isn't What It Used To Be"

[Todd Alexander Litman]

Dear Colleagues,

I'm writing to let you know about our latest draft publication, "The Future 
Isn't What It Used To Be: Changing Trends And Their Implications For 
Transport Planning" (http://www.vtpi.org/future.pdf).

This paper examines various demographic, economic and market trends that 
affect travel demand, and their implications for transport planning during 
the next century. During Twentieth Century per capita motor vehicle travel 
demand increased by an order of magnitude. Many of the factors that caused 
this growth have peaked in developed countries and are likely to decline. 
This indicates that future transport demand will be increasingly diverse. 
Transport planning can reflect these shifts by reducing emphasis on 
automobile travel and increasing support for alternative modes and smart 
growth development patterns.

I would appreciate your feedback. Please let me know if you find any errors 
or omissions, or if you have any other ideas of factors that affect past 
and future travel demand. Also, please let me know if you know a source of 
good time-series shipping cost data, such as the real cost of transporting 
a ton of freight from New York to London or San Francisco for each decade 
from 1900 to 2000.



Sincerely,
Todd Litman, Director
Victoria Transport Policy Institute
"Efficiency - Equity - Clarity"
1250 Rudlin Street
Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, Canada
Phone & Fax: 250-360-1560
Email: litman at vtpi.org
Website: http://www.vtpi.org