[sustran] Re: (fwd) [UTSG] transport strategy transfer

Karl Fjellstrom karl at dnet.net.id
Fri Apr 23 18:12:27 JST 2004


Dear Jonathan,

Thanks for your thoughts. I don't want to harp on BRT, but would like to
respond re. a/c bus fares and 'the masses'.

The basis of our difference of opinion on BRT is I think reflected in your
grouping of 'skytrain, underground or air con buses' together as you've done
below. I'd argue they are orders of magnitude apart. Skytrain and subway are
high cost metros and charge much more and will - often even if heavily
subsidised - be beyond the reach of most people to afford. But the same does
not apply to air con buses or to BRT.

The price difference between air-con and non air con buses is much more of a
gradation than you suggest. The normal a/c bus fare (without going into all
the intricacies) is in the range 8 to 14 baht.

For Bangkok: the masses are already using buses, so why wouldn't they use
BRT? Because bus operating conditions are so inefficient (largely due to
congestion but also poor planning) costs are currently much higher than they
need to be. Buses operating in segregated lanes in Bangkok would surely
provide a much better service, at a much lower cost.

Anyway, I have to admit the whole discussion on BRT in Bangkok is beginning
to seem rather wistful. There are many vested interests in the rail metro
expansion and despite efforts put into promoting BRT here, there is little
uptake so far. Though we may disagree on aspects of bus reform, I think we'd
both agree that the bus system needs to be given serious attention, and
should be given priority over metro expansion and expressway expansion.

Best regards, Karl

PS: in principle there's no reason BRT has to involve air-con buses. Though
looking at demand in Bangkok the trunk lines probably should be air con.
Roughly, there are 10,000 air con passenger vans in Bangkok (charging 10 to
45 Baht), 75,000 a/c taxis, 5,000 a/c large buses, 800+ a/c minibuses,
against around 5,000 non-air con buses and minibuses. 

-----Original Message-----
From: Jonathan E. D. Richmond [mailto:richmond at alum.mit.edu] 
Sent: Friday, 23 April 2004 2:46 PM
To: karl at dnet.net.id; Asia and the Pacific sustainable transport
Subject: Re: [sustran] Re: (fwd) [UTSG] transport strategy transfer


Karl, I am not really talking about differences between the 4 baht and 5
baht buses (the 5 baht blue/white ones also being nonaircon), but between
the 4/5 baht buses and the 20 baht aircon ones. I am planning to get some
hard data, such as is available, over the summer, but the very fact that the
nonaircon buses run on the same routes as aircon ones and that crowds of
people will wait for the cheaper services to save money suggests that price
is an issue in choosing bus services as much as between bus and rail.

You will remember that the government representative at the recent UN
conference on BRT explicitly said he was not interested in keeping low fares
should premium services be provided. The trend in Thailand has been to
provide extremely low-quality services for the poor at low fares and to
price anything else much higher. It is politically difficult to increase the
cost of existing services, and there is a strong constituency for the 4 baht
fare, but we have seen that when new services are introduced -- whether on
the Skytrain, underground or with aircon buses, the opportunity is taken to
charge much more: amounts which are far beyond the ability of people of low
income to pay.

I am not saying BRT programs are bad -- they would bring important benefits
to Bangkok -- but I am warning that they may not be for the masses as
implemented in a Thai context.

I am going to have to get you to come and speak to my students at AIT before
long!!!

Best,

                 --Jonathan

-----

Jonathan E. D. Richmond                               02 524-5510 (office)
Visiting Fellow                               Intl.: 662 524-5510
Transportation Engineering program
School of Civil Engineering, Room N260B               02 524-8257 (home)
Asian Institute of Technology                 Intl.: 662 524-8257
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Thailand                                      Intl:  662 524-5509

e-mail: richmond at ait.ac.th               Secretary:  Ms. Nisarat Hansuksa
        richmond at alum.mit.edu		              02 524-6051
					      Intl:  662 524-6051
http://the-tech.mit.edu/~richmond/





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